http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2010/04/05/stocks-rise-toward-11000-dow/

The stock market is talking. Are you listening? This has been going on for a year. It may pause to catch its breath, but it should gradually climb higher this summer unless something unforeseen happens. A year ago the DOW was a bit below 6500. This has been quite a move already.

 

What is your point? It was up. It was down. Now it is climbing again. At some point in the future it will go down again. That is the nature of the beast.

Remember:

Bulls can make money.
Bears can make money.
But hogs will lose every time.

Do not try to hit tops and bottoms. Get a good slice out of the trend and be happy.

The 2nd hardest decision in investing is when to buy.
The hardest decision is when to sell.

Do you invest in stocks or bonds?

 

Somehow, and I do not understand how it does it, but the market anticipates what is going to happen and moves up or down before other indicators begin showing the trend. I was skeptical of this for years but have come to accept it. I do not understand it, just accept it. It is an early indicator.

The DOW hit its all time high on October 9, 2007 at 14164. The downward trend, in my mind, was established firmly in February of 2008. The charts at that time said to sell and hide. Or sell your long holdings and sell short. Many experts was finally became believers that a bear market was underway the summer of 2008. Frankly, I am surprised the market recovered as fast as it did. A year ago I finally became a believer the market was going up. Most people were saying it was not a time to start buying. This is another good sign that it is a time to buy. When everyone is saying sell or don't buy, buy. When everyone is saying hold on or buy it is a time to sell.

The same is true with an individual stock. The price tends to begin moving up or down, in a trend, before the good or bad news breaks. In fact the price of a stock will often fall on good news and go up on bad news. This is not always true, but it does happen. Again, I do not understand it, I just accept it.

The secret, as I said in my earlier post is, don't try to hit tops or bottems. Just identify the trend and get a slice out of the trend.

 

The market is saying things are not as bad as many believe and the economy is recovering. It probably is not too late to find some good companies to invest in, but it will take careful research.

I forgot to say in my previous post where the 10% unemployment was mentioned. While the stock market is a leading indicator the employment figures are a lagging indicator.