'Cataclysmic' Economic Crisis

A typical misuse of statistics and probability. How does he assign the risk to the various components of his probability calculation?

 

I think Ron Paul has about a 1 in 10 chance about being correct about anything he says.

I noticed there was no time frame put on his prediction.

 

We probably have a 1 in 10 chance of avoiding a melt down no matter what we do next, but people need to set up the scenario before hand so the blame goes to the right/wrong people when the account is subjected to political spin.

We're run up the money supply SO drastically that it will be almost impossible to avoid some form of hyper-inflation -- and probably this year.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.pdf?id=BASE

 

I forgot that Ron Paul also has a Nobel Prize in economics.

Clearly he would never misuse statistics for purely political purposes...

 

When you say melt down, what do you mean, specifically? What would the economic indicators be in a melt down, i.e. Dow Jones average, unemployment rate, inflation rate, GDP, etc? Since you assert it is 90% likely to happen I'd like to know exactly what you think will occur.

 

>We probably have a 1 in 10 chance of avoiding a melt down no matter what we do next

The recent mega lottery drawing demonstrates the average human ability to analyze risk.

I do NOT understand how every major economy could crash at the same time. Seems to me the first to crash would bolster the rest. The euro is in much worse shape than the dollar. (Europe screwed themselves with the euro)