It's Time To Stop Blaming the Weather

Wonder what these "experts" are going to say when Q2 GDP pulls in at 3.0 or higher? That will be almost a 6 point swing. Then can we say IT WAS the weather?

 

If that happens, it will only be because QE is not being discontinued as advertised, but is being used to prop up the markets. You'll notice I haven't bitten on your bait this last week, because what you're ignoring is that these favorable economic reports are something that has been going on for four or five years, only to be revised several months later when this administration thinks no one is paying attention.

MAPI is an industry group, and their own June news releases constantly pound the "investment-fueled expansion" drum, meaning they have a vested interest in helping the government convince investors to put money into a market by forecasting outrageous and even unprecedented growth when all the other economic indicators are for stagnant or modest growth in all sectors.

The fact is, given the politicization of the Department of Justice, Health and Human Services, the VA, the IRS, the Treasury Department in general, and other agencies of the federal government, it is simply no longer possible to trust the numbers they generate. Is it accurate, or is it politics? Hard to say. Even this recent 2.9% revision is no more trustworthy then the earlier "growth" numbers. They could be as accurate as such numbers ever are, arrived at as honestly as they ever were, or they could be politically massaged numbers.

I mean, think about it. Since Truman, the economy has been studied, researched, analyzed and massaged by governments whose level of popularity is directly tied to the health of the markets and the health of Mr. and Mrs. John Q. Public's bank account. It's hard to understand why we should have ever considered such numbers from such sources trustworthy, and now we have a president who obviously isn't afraid to lie, cheat, steal and who-knows-what-else in order to give appearance of control and success.

Regardless, the economy is not bouncing back. It may be entering a kind of equilibrium at a level roughly equal to what it was in 2008-09, but it's hard to tell. While the stock market has apparently recovered, on aggregate, most of the territory lost in the 2008 drop, that doesn't mean the rest of the economy is growing. It means corporations have managed to figure out ways to make a profit within the restricted economy and uncertain regulations of the Obama presidency.

It doesn't mean they are hiring. They're not. Hiring is happening at the small business, "mom-and-pop" stores serving local economies and hiring only part-time workers.

It doesn't mean they're expanding. They say they "plan to" but the reality is, they are not. Manufacturing expansion forecasts have done the same thing the economic growth forecasts of the last several years have done: Come out highly optimistic only to be revised downward much later, again when the administration thinks no one is watching.

The unemployment rate may be down, but the percentage of potential workers without jobs hasn't changed much, and those that have given up finding work are simply not counted as "unemployed" anymore. It makes no difference if someone without a job is drawing benefits or not. "Out of work" is "out of work" except at the U.S. Department of Labor. The non-working able-bodied employable is at an all time high, nearly 40% of the available workforce. That is not a healthy economy no matter how one tries to pretty up with powder and bows.

Deficits are still high, even if not as astronomical as they were the first four years of Obama's tenure, but the national debt still balloons at the rate of $1 million every 15 seconds.

The long-term outlook is not good if Obama's policies, especially Obamacare, continue in place. Anyone who invests in this market without realizing it is a huge bubble ready to burst any time now has no respect for history or his money.

 

Yeah, still waiting for you to:
a.) tell us how much money from QE3 is getting into the stock market
b.) how it is getting into the stock market.

R-i-i-i-i-ight. We've had five years of positive economic reports and when the revisions come in no one can find them on the internet.

Prove this. Second time you've said it in 2 posts today.

OK, OK, I concede. Wall Street underwriters and investment firms that control billions of dollars are just shills for the administration and have no clue that Obama issues revisions after the preliminary results come out.

 

I told you once and you ignored it. The last influx amounted to $1.6 trillion, and it went into the market from private investors basing their decisions on the alleged (but thus far false) end to QE. This is virtually the same thing as handing the investors the money and telling them to put it into the stock market. It is obvious, as Forbes said in an article back in March, that investors prefer an end to QE, but the Fed sees far too much advantage in falsely supported markets based on the promise of an end to government intervention the Fed has absolutely no intention of actually ending.

The BEA has "revised" economic growth numbers downward six of the last seven quarters. How is it you don't know that?

See the other thread.

No, they are shills for themselves, and right now that just happens to be in conjunction with the aims of the administration. What do you think would happen if the underwriters and investment firms actually preached the gloom and doom that is on the horizon?

They aren't in business to drive customers' money out the door. They, like the government, will continue to preach good times arollin' right up until the roof caves in.