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Featured They Forced All Welfare Recipients To Get Drug Tested In North Carolina. Here Are The Results…

Discussion in 'News & Current Events' started by Crabtownboy, Apr 19, 2016.

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  1. Crabtownboy

    Crabtownboy Well-Known Member
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    Another Republican myth destroyed by reality.

    From: http://awm.com/they-forced-all-welf...ted-in-north-carolina-here-are-the-results-2/

    After the Republican North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory vetoed a bill to test welfare recipientsfor drug abuse, the state legislature overruled his veto. The law went into effect.

    On February 9, North Carolina released the results from their first round of drug testing.

    More than 7,600 people applied for the Work First program. But only 89 of them were tested for drugs. Out of those tested 21 were found to have illegal drugs in their system. That means only 0.3 percent of the total participant pool used drugs.

    The state and national average for drug use is around 8 percent.

    Non-welfare recipients are 26 times more like to abuse illegal drugs than North Carolina’s welfare recipients, according to North Carolina’s findings.
     
    #1 Crabtownboy, Apr 19, 2016
  2. Rob_BW

    Rob_BW Well-Known Member
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    23% of the people tested failed the urinalysis. Are you seriously assuming that the every single one of the other 7500 people would have passed if tested?
     
    #2 Rob_BW, Apr 19, 2016
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  3. Internet Theologian

    Internet Theologian Well-Known Member

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    [ edited ] He has found yet another which proves that being controlled by the government is good for us. And is Christian. And is what the Gospel is all about: The Gospel is a Social Gospel. Let's all go get on welfare. :)
     
    #3 Internet Theologian, Apr 19, 2016
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  4. carpro

    carpro Well-Known Member
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    One of the most idiotic posts I have ever seen. CTB has topped himself.
     
    #4 carpro, Apr 19, 2016
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  5. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Yes, 21 out of 89 people tested positive.

    No, because only 89 people were in the drug test participant pool, not 7,600. If 0.3 percent of the participant pool were to test positive that would be 0.267 of a person.

    That's what he wrote. That's the only way to interpret what he said.

    CTB, you may now retract your ridiculous statement...
     
    #5 InTheLight, Apr 19, 2016
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  6. carpro

    carpro Well-Known Member
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    It's not really his conclusion or statement. It's a direct quote from the article. But typical of CTB, whatever his leftist source says is the truth. He never checks. He never questions it.

    The title is an outright lie. The conclusion drawn is patently ridiculous.
     
    #6 carpro, Apr 19, 2016
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  7. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Wow. You're right. I thought the math part was a comment by CTB.


    Which is ironic for a self-described "I love to read guy" and who regularly posts the books he is reading.
     
    #7 InTheLight, Apr 19, 2016
  8. Kevin

    Kevin Active Member

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    It must be that "New Math" that we don't know about. My old math says that if everyone had been tested and the failure percentage stayed the same, about 1800 would have tested positive.
     
    #8 Kevin, Apr 19, 2016
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  9. Sapper Woody

    Sapper Woody Well-Known Member

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    So, I used my first ever "dumb" rating in this thread. Let's look at this from a statistics standpoint. As a dual Physics/Math major, I feel I can comment on the absurdity of the claim.

    The fallacy obviously comes from using the number of people out of a sample, and assuming there would have been no positives in the population. This is not just bad math, it is downright stupid.

    Let's take a look at the null hypothesis. H0: 0.3% of the population on welfare use drugs. Now, we take our alternate hypothesis. H1: >0.3% of the population on welfare us drugs.

    So, we take a sample size of 89. 21 tested positive, or ~23.6%. Since this is not a normative curve type of situation, we can't use bell curve hypothesis testing against a standard deviation. So, to test the null hypothesis, we'll compare the claimed percentage (0.3) against the observed percentage (23.6), and find that the claimed percentage is only 1.3% the size of the claimed percentage. Using a 5% confidence level, we can see that the claimed percentage falls well below the 2.5% mark (using a two tailed test). So, we can say with 95% certainty that their claim of 0.3% is incorrect.

    Result: Reject the null hypothesis.

    In plain English: They're stupid.
     
    #9 Sapper Woody, Apr 19, 2016
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  10. Crabtownboy

    Crabtownboy Well-Known Member
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    Your responses only show you do not understand how the drug test works. The statement is not very clear. The total number was 7600

    Out of about 7,600 cases reviewed from August to December, about 89 met the criteria to require a drug test and only 21 failed the test. So it is 21 out of 7600. Of course you can use various statistical methods and come up with different answers. But the 21 out of 89 calculation by some on the board is correct. But, that is a false reading for the total number applying for welfare. Not understanding the program some on the board ended up comparing apples and rocks.

    The article is about the number who ended up testing positive compared to the total number that applied for benefits.

    Tennessee has a much wider gap between those who applied and those who ended up testing positive.

    From:

    In July, Tennessee began a drug testing program for applicants to the state’s welfare program. Since then, just one person has tested positive out of more than 800.

    In the month since it began, six people submitted to a drug test and just one tested positive out of the 812 people who applied. Four were turned down for benefits because they refused to participate in drug screening. That means a positive rate of 0.12 percent for those who took part in the screening. That compares to the 8 percent of state residents generally who use illegal drugs.

    Despite stereotypes that the poor people who need welfare assistance use drugs at a high rate, other states have had similar results. In Utah, just 12 people tested positive in a year of drug testing applicants. In Florida, 2 percent of applicants failed the tests in 2011 but the state has an 8 percent rate of illegal drug use.

    http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2014/08/07/3468610/tennessee-welfare-drug-test-positive/
     
    #10 Crabtownboy, Apr 20, 2016
  11. Rob_BW

    Rob_BW Well-Known Member
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    Wait, in Tennessee the drug test was voluntary?

    Lol...
     
    #11 Rob_BW, Apr 20, 2016
  12. Kevin

    Kevin Active Member

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    If they didn't actually test a person they did not pass the drug test. Claiming they would have all tested clean if they had actually been tested is just ****
     
    #12 Kevin, Apr 20, 2016
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  13. Salty

    Salty 20,000 Posts Club
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    Could be that when free-loaders found out they might be tested - they started to come clean......
     
    #13 Salty, Apr 20, 2016
  14. Don

    Don Well-Known Member
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    GAH!!!!!

    6 people submitted to the drug test, and one tested positive; that's NOT 1 out of 812. That's 1 out of 6. At that rate, all things being equal, you'd have 135 people test positive out of 812.

    Seriously, CTB, you play chess, you read, you talk about finances; and you can't see the error of the math being presented? And yet, you want to complain when the republicans do weird math tricks regarding the budget and economy?
     
    #14 Don, Apr 20, 2016
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  15. SovereignGrace

    SovereignGrace Well-Known Member
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    Ppl have ways of skewing those tests. Trust me. I'm a lab tech and have found condoms in bathrooms where they carried urine in them to pour into the cup. It depends on what cups are used. Some have strips on the bottom that have a temp guage to know if it is warm...body temp. If it is not, then the testing is not done. Sadly, some do not require using those cups.
     
    #15 SovereignGrace, Apr 20, 2016
  16. annsni

    annsni Well-Known Member
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    No - it's 21 out of 89. You can't even begin to remotely put it at 21 out of 7600. That would be like saying 7600 people were screened for cancer. 89 of them were tested and 21 of them showed positive test results for cancer. So 21 of 7600 people had cancer. But you can't say that because of the other 7511 people, you have NO idea whether or not they are truly negative until you test them.
     
    #16 annsni, Apr 20, 2016
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  17. Sapper Woody

    Sapper Woody Well-Known Member

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    If we look at the thread, even the title is a lie. They didn't force ALL welfare recipients to take a test. They made a small percentage take a test.

    Sent from my QTAQZ3 using Tapatalk
     
    #17 Sapper Woody, Apr 20, 2016
  18. Crabtownboy

    Crabtownboy Well-Known Member
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    Y'all are still missing the point. Out of 7600 who applied only 89 were required to take the drug test as they failed the preliminary requirements.

    So, let's look at it this way. If 7600 non-applicants from the general population were screened then, of the number who failed the initial screening were tested and if the 8% of the general public failed the test, as we know that at least 8% of the general public used drugs, then 806 of that 7600 would fail the drug test. 806 is a whole lot more than 21 as in the welfare applicants.

    Yes of the 81 tested 21 failed. No one is disputing that. But it was only 21 out of 7600 applicants where as in the general population about 1075 would have failed the first step and 806 of the general population that failed the drug test.
     
    #18 Crabtownboy, Apr 20, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2016
  19. Sapper Woody

    Sapper Woody Well-Known Member

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    The screen meant nothing. You answer some questions correctly, and you don't take the test. Anyone who knows it's coming can clean up for a few days. I had a soldier who smoked marijuana for years, and never got caught. Even with random drug screenings, he got away with it. Another fellow Sergeant got caught after three years of crack. No one suspected anything until he got caught.

    21 out of 89 is indicative of the whole.

    Sent from my QTAQZ3 using Tapatalk
     
    #19 Sapper Woody, Apr 20, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2016
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  20. Jeremy Seth

    Jeremy Seth Member

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    Do we have information on the screening process, and did a statistician make a report?
    I would be more tempted to consider the conclusions if the report was sourced, and not hosted on a clickbait site.
     
    #20 Jeremy Seth, Apr 20, 2016
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