2012 Daytona 500-Predictions/thoughts

Discussion in 'Sports' started by Bobby Hamilton, Feb 15, 2012.

  1. Bobby Hamilton

    Bobby Hamilton
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    Not sure what to think with the car changes.

    I will say this...A.J. Allmendinger seems to have a decent grasp of the plate tracks. He has run really in the past (depsite not having some of the finishes to show for it) when he was in the Petty car.

    He's my darkhorse.
     
  2. padredurand

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    Junior. :wavey:
     
  3. Tom Bryant

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    Danica :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

    Seriously, I think Kyle Bush... i don't like him but i think he made some forward steps along with a few backward steps last year and this may be the year for him.
     
  4. padredurand

    padredurand
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    Stranger things have happened.
     
  5. convicted1

    convicted1
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    If his motor doesn't go "kaput", watch out for Kevin Harvick, my driver....
     
  6. Bobby Hamilton

    Bobby Hamilton
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    Harvick has been strong at the plate races over the last 4-5 years. I think the RCR guys still have it figured out.

    I look for maybe Jamie McMurray to rebound at the plate tracks this year too.
     
  7. Bobby Hamilton

    Bobby Hamilton
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    Ha!

    My .02 on her is this: Just like anyone else, in the cup series, she'll have a somewhat legit shot to win on the 4 plate tracks. I don't think it'll be high.

    In the nationwide series, in the equipment she'll be in, I think she may have a bit higher opportunity to win.

    But I don't ever see her being a threat in the cup series, based on what we saw in the IRL. One win, in a depleted field race (Champ Car's last race that weekend) on fuel mileage.

    Now, don't get me wrong...a lot of guys would love to have that 1 win in the IRL. But I don't think she will be able to make that transition and race with the big boys in the cup series. It's a whole different world.
     
  8. Tom Bryant

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    I would agree mostly. In the cup, (I still think of it as winston cup, shows how old I am), i don't think she'll be a factor. But in the nationwide, I think she'll do well.

    She's got a chip on her shoulder which good drivers usually do, so who knows?
     
  9. convicted1

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    I don't know about that. Tony Stewart didn't do too well in the Busch series(when he first left IRL that is), and look at what he did after he made the jump to the Winston Cup. I think she has the talent to finish in the top 20 in due time, with maybe a win or two along the way.
     
  10. Bobby Hamilton

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    Tony Stewart won an IRL championship and a lot of races. Danica didn't. Not to mention that Tony has dominated in just about every type of race car he's hopped in. On top of that, Joe Gibbs never really had any thoughts to keep Stewart in the Busch series for more than a year.

    Comparing him and her is like comparing apples and rocks.

    Finishing in the top 20? Sure. Lots of people have managed that. John Andretti did that.
     
    #10 Bobby Hamilton, Feb 20, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 20, 2012
  11. ccrobinson

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    Bobby, you and I disagree on what happened at Rockingham in 1996, but I agree with everything you've posted about Danica Patrick.

    Let's not pretend that finishing in the top 20 in points is a great achievement. For example, Casey Mears scored 1 top 5 and 6 top 10's in 2008 and finished in the top 20 in points. IOW, it doesn't take much to get there.


    Tony's numbers aren't great, but I'll take his finishes over Danica's finishes.

    T. Stewart
    1996: 9 starts, 0 Top 5's, 0 Top 10's
    1997: 5 starts, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10's
    1998: 22 starts, 5 Top 5's, 5 Top 10's

    D. Patrick
    2010: 13 starts, 0 Top 5's, 0 Top 10's
    2011: 12 starts, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10's


    Let's give Kyle Busch some props for Saturday night's race. He was nothing short of sensational, saving his car twice like he did and making a tremendous move at the end to win. I think there wasn't a soul who's watched tandem restrictor plate racing that thought the pusher had any chance to win, but he pulled it off.

    The Fox crew talked about the introduction of the EFI and it was implied, if not outright stated, that the EFI didn't really affect the racing, but I think it did. I think the introduction of the fuel injector has given the drivers one thing they've always wanted in restrictor plate racing, throttle control. Throughout the race, we saw drivers seemingly punch it at will and just drive away in short bursts. Greg Biffle, Dale Junior, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Busch all were able to do that. I've been watching Cup racing for 20 years, and I saw restrictor plate cars do things on Saturday night that I haven't seen them do before.

    I was a bit amazed at DW talking about how Nascar needs to figure out how to stop the cars from spinning when bumped in the left year. Really, DW? I didn't see one car on Saturday night spin itself out.

    Question. When have the drivers ever been able to bump draft in the corners?

    Answer. Never.

    I've got a really revolutionary idea that will stop the cars from spinning when hit in the left rear. Don't hit the car in front of you in the left rear. I'd bet a lot of money that if a car isn't hit in the left rear in the corner, it won't spin out. I have no earthly idea what DW thinks Nascar is supposed to do about this.

    My heart says Dale Junior, but my head says Kyle Busch to win the Daytona 500.
     
  12. convicted1

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    I like the restrictor plates, but I enjoy the road courses better. On R.P. tracks anyone can win, if pushed at the right time. One person wiggles, and you have a twenty car pile up. You can finish 1.5 secs behind the leader and finish 34th. Bleck.....
     
  13. convicted1

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    What I meant was that Stewart struggled in the Busch Series until he learned the nuances of the stock car. After he learned, well, you see the rest.

    Don't disagree.

    And he won what, 3 or 4 races? He won the July Daytona race, and at Martinsville, I know this much. Was there another win he had?

    ETA: It was two. I googled it.
     
  14. Bobby Hamilton

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    Ha...appreciate the words (about Rockingham)...I'll still take Dale saying he hit him (unintentional or not) as they made contact ;)


    But yes...what Busch did Saturday night was awesome. The way he handled that car reminded me of the way some other NASCAR guys drove back in the day (Stewart on the old short tracks in my area, Kenny Schrader, etc). Unreal what he did.

    I think the problem here was that NASCAR made the changes the wrong way. Tandems can hook up, but they can't drive off...leaving us with pack racing...and closing speeds WAY too fast for pack racing.

    In the past cars didn't really run each other over. In the tandem racing it's easy to do that at the speeds, but it wasn't happening as much the last 2 years because the fields got spread out. Now you've got that closing speed happening in packs of 20 or more.

    Several drivers said that the race Sunday won't be as bad, because they aren't going gung ho for a short time frame. I don't buy it, because I feel in that field of 43 cars, a lot of guys aren't ready for this yet.
     
  15. Bobby Hamilton

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    There is some truth to this, but historically it's not like people who never win races win these. Last year was a bit of change (with Ragan and Bayne), but lets look back historically

    Since 2000 we've had 48 plate races. 20 different winners. Half of those drivers only have 1 plate win. So the other 38 races are basically won by the same 10 guys. Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon combine for 15 (31%) of the wins since 2000.

    Of the 1 time winners, 2 are retired/deceased (Ward Burton and Bobby Hamilton). 5 of them are/have been consistent winners/threats to win over the last several years (Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle and Jeff Burton). 2 drivers only wins have come in these races (David Ragan and Trevor Bayne). The odd man out is Brian Vickers...and his status is weird.

    So if you look at it, 3 winners in the last 48 races were surprises...and fall under that true category "anyone can win"

    I didn't realize it was this lopsided. I knew Gordon and Earnhardt had won a lot, but it's essentially the same small group of people winning these plate races. Shoot, 7 of these 20 have at least 3 or more plate wins. So even though earlier I may have mentioned Danica might have a shot because of this "anyone can win" mentality, the statistics show otherwise. And if you go back another 10 years (back to 1990)...the %'s don't really change. Different people are winning, but it's the same small group (more Dale Jarrett, Jeff Gordon, Sterling Marlin, Dale Sr, Irnie Irvan, etc).

    Just like any track, certain guys have the knack for it and they win.

    I mean, really, since 1990...I'd say there have been only been a handful of surprise wins at the plate tracks

    1990 Daytona 500 Derrick Cope
    1997 Pepsi 400 John Andretti
    1994 Pepsi 400 Jimmy Spencer
    2002 Daytona 500 Ward Burton
    2011 Daytona 500 Trevor Bayne

    And who knows what Bayne's future will hold.

    David Ragan had actually had some pretty solid plate runs. Not shocked he won at Talladega.
     
    #15 Bobby Hamilton, Feb 21, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 21, 2012
  16. ccrobinson

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    Really good point. If my EFI comments are correct, and I certainly allow that they may be completely wrong, then the closing speeds are the other side of the same coin. In the same way the drivers can punch it and get away, they can also punch it and punch the car in front in the left rear.


    Wait a minute. There was a Daytona 500 that year? I have no recollection of that event.

    Ugh. Here I was, having a really nice night and you had to go and bring up Public Enemy #1.

    :tonofbricks:


    I hope that nobody tries to win the race on the first lap, but, in general, I agree with this. Watch out with 20 to go, though. To use DW's phrase, business is going to pick up.
     
  17. Bobby Hamilton

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    Since Earnhardt did finally win a 500, I don't think 1990 should be PE #1. One of my fondest racing memories is Derrick Cope winning that, because that's one of the biggest surprise wins ever. Really, him winning at Dover that year actually takes away from it some because he won another one, but I remember that race like it was yesterday.

    I never really had a problem with Earnhardt in all reality. I hated him for a while after the Hamilton/Rockingham incident that you and I don't see eye to eye on, but I was never in the love him or hate him camp.

    As for the race...I'm not sure that people will be trying to win on the first lap, but if the race Saturday is any indication, there was a LOT of movement, and several "almost" wrecks on that first lap. I have a feeling that a lot of cars will not be finishing this race. Makes doing fantasy nascar this year a mess for Daytona.
     
  18. ccrobinson

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    I'm sure you realize this, Bobby, but my tongue is planted firmly in cheek about the 1990 Daytona 500. That was such a hard loss. And while I took a lot of joy from Earnhardt finally winning it, he should have won 2, and possibly 3, if you think he had the best car in 1991.

    I'm giving a definite maybe about a lot of cars not finishing the race. Based on last week, I can see why you'd say that, but sports are funny about doing the exact opposite of how we think they'll go. The duels tomorrow aren't going to provide a lot of clues about the 500 since a lot of guys are going to be instructed to race very conservatively.

    I'm running a couple of Fantasy Nascar leagues on Yahoo this year. Let me know if you want to join and I'll send you an invite to one of them.
     
  19. Bobby Hamilton

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    Definately. He had a great car in several of those races (when Jarrett won too). He had some really freaky losses.

    Yeah, I think we'll see some guys running towards the back today. I just think this years race...none of the guys are "experienced" as to what the cars are doing. They've never really had the kind of car that they could "Punch it" while still having to be in a large pack. I say get rid of the plates. I hate them.


    I think with Yahoo, if you are in more than one (with the same user ID) it just used the same drivers in each one, right? If so, count me in. If I only have to keep track of one set I can do it. Shoot me a PM.
     
  20. ccrobinson

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    Yes, you can be in 3 leagues, but use the same set of drivers in each league.
     

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