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Active players who will make the Hall of Fame

Discussion in 'Sports Forum' started by Andy T., Jul 19, 2007.

  1. Andy T.

    Andy T. Active Member

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    Pudge v. Bench would be interesting. There is no doubt that they were the best of their respective eras. That was my point. Bench has two titles and Pudge has one, with another one on its way with the Tigers. :)

    O.k. - I'll give you this - Vlad just needs two more seasons and he's in. Delgado needs 3 or 4 more decent seasons and he's in (at that point, his career numbers will be too good to keep him out). I never said Vlad was as good a fielder as Griffey. I don't think Vlad's defense hurts him at all. In fact, his incredible arm probably has saved some runs as a deterrant. His BA, OPS and RBI numbers are great - I'm sure they are near the top among OF's over the last 8-9 years. Plus, he doesn't strikeout much for a slugger. He is definitely one of the top OF's of his era (I never said he was the best outright - although I wouldn't argue with that; Griffey is a different era - he peaked much earlier).
     
  2. EdSutton

    EdSutton New Member

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    Noticed that too, huh? :rolleyes:

    Ed
     
    #42 EdSutton, Jul 31, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 31, 2007
  3. Andy T.

    Andy T. Active Member

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    Merely spending time behind the plate doesn't earn points with me. I don't care what Bill James says. Ted Simmons was not a great catcher. Only great catchers belong in the Hall. Great catcher is defined as a balance between offense and defense. And everyone agrees that defense has more weight for catchers than any other position, except maybe SS. Since fielding stats are hard to interpret and difficult to place a value on, we will just have to disagree that his defense offsets his offense.

    You keep wanting to make a bright line for Hall inclusion - it's a fool's errand. There is always subjectivity. Even the stats you throw out are subjective in how they are interpreted and presented.
     
  4. TomVols

    TomVols New Member

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    Maybe Pudge will get another ring...who knows. Bench is helped by being part of the BRM. Maybe I can get around to comparing them.
    I think having a FP almost 20 points lower than league avg is a black eye. Not exactly stellar in Assists.
    Well, I've done the analysis twice. The numbers just don't say what you're asserting. But you mentioned the last several years. Since 1999, Vlad is 5th in BA, 16th in OBP, 2nd in TB, 9th in R, 3rd in Hits, 4th in RBI, 8th in OPS, 8th in HR. He's very good. Upper eschelon. But not HOF. Maybe if he has some lights-out numbers for the next several years. Maybe he's being too overshadowed by the greats at his position. Who knows.
    I agree completely, which is why I have argued against this aspect of Bill James's HOF monitor number.
    Andy T - on message, and standing on his circular reasoning when no one else will...you gotta love that :laugh:
    whoa, Andy breaks out the "appeal to authority" fallacy. Gotta hand it to you Andy, I thought the only logical fallacy you knew was circular reasoning :thumbs:
    Assuming this is directed at me: Gee Andy, it sounds like you're putting me down here and insulting my ability to interpret defensive stats. ;) If I saw numbers that showed what you assert, I'd buy your bias..I mean, argument. But you've yet to show them.
    Assuming this is directed at me, you know I argue no such thing. I just argue for consistency. I've posted my criteria in the other thread. And numbers are subjective only in how the comparison is to other players and to the era. Simmons has more hits than any other catcher. That's not subjective. He caught 87% of the games he played. That's not subjective. It can be explained away, it can be ignored, but those things are there. Now, when we say Simmons had X amount of hits, but Pudge for instance had Y number, and Pudge's hits are more impressive/less impressive than Simmons, now we're being subjective.

    Enough about Simmons. I think he should be in, but you don't. I think we established that fact long ago. I think you established your opinion the moment after you were born, buddy. :)
     
  5. Andy T.

    Andy T. Active Member

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    Back to Vlad, I don't know where you are getting your numbers??? First, go back to 1998 (not 99) when he became a regular. 5th in BA? Among OFers? He is listed 4th among all actives and the only other OF is Ichiro. He is only a few points behind Helton and we all know that his numbers need adjusted for Coors. So the only two ahead of him are Ichiro and Pujols. For OPS, I show him 3rd among active OFers - behind Bonds and Manny. With 2 more decent (not even great) seasons, here will be his career stats:

    .325 BA
    .390 OBP
    .575 SLG
    425 Homers
    1400 RBI
    2400 Hits
    An MVP (with about 2.50 MVP shares)
    8-10 All-Stars

    At this point, I think he gets in. Not on first ballot. Not without some detractors. Somewhat marginal career numbers. But those are great numbers for only about 12-13 full seasons.

    With 4 more decent (again, not "lights out") seasons, here are his career numbers:

    .320 BA
    .385 OBP
    .570 SLG
    480 Homers
    1600 RBI
    2750 Hits
    MVP and 10+ All-Stars

    At that point, he is a shoe-in.

    You do realize that Vlad is one of the most feared hitters in the game and has been most of his career?
     
    #45 Andy T., Jul 31, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 31, 2007
  6. TomVols

    TomVols New Member

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    Baseball Reference.

    Among just OF since 1998:
    1st in Hits, 2nd in BA, 7th in OBP, 5th in Runs, 5th in doubles, 4th in HR, 4th in SLG, 3rd in OPS, OPS+, and RC.

    I just wonder if we aren't being a little too myopic. You can make a case that he's one of the best at his position in a decade (which you have derided before). The era argument may prove problematic.

    I'll grant you that if he gets 2,750 hits and 500 HR, he's in, regardless of what he does and despite his poor glove.

    Will he be hurt by playing on the Left Coast and in obscurity in Montreal?
     
  7. TomVols

    TomVols New Member

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    Randy Johnson: .654 Win pct. 284 career wins. 5 Cy Youngs (1 Triple Crown) and 10 AS games. Gobbs of black ink and a MHOF off the charts. Are we even having this conversation?

    Clemens & Maddux: put them both in. However, Clemens needs to knock off the part time bit. He's hurting himself.

    Tom Glavine: 299 wins (as of this writing). However, not as dominant in his era as the Big Unit. With at least 500 games, he's 7th in win pct (just over .600). He had three bad years. But he had plenty more good ones. Nowhere near the black ink of the Unit. I believe he'll be in, and he probably should. I believe Rocket, Unit, and Maddux should be first.

    Smoltz: Great black ink, and occasionally high era numbers. But will 3 from the same staff get in? 203 wins, .588 win pct. ERA outside 3 of the big 4 we just looked at. He's lead the league in wins twice and has a Cy Young. He outranks Glavine in some categories. However, just on the surface, I'm going to say no.

    Rivera: 429 saves (3rd all time). 34 came in October. Tied for best relief ERA all time. 3rd best WHIP all-time for a reliever. Led the league in saves three times. Put him in.

    Jeff Kent: 2000 NL MVP. .290 BA and slugs over .500. However, 7th in his era among 2Bs in BA. 8th in OBP. 3rd in Runs and Hits. 2nd in doubles. Just shy of 2,300 hits. Most HR in his era. Highest OPS. If people are questioning Biggio, Kent has no chance. I think Kent is not in at this point, but it's not out of the question if he continues (again, the left coast hurting him?).

    More to come........
     
  8. ccrobinson

    ccrobinson Active Member

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    Clemens is currently 3-5 with a 3.92 ERA. How is he hurting himself? Do you mean that if he finishes with a 3.92 ERA that it will somehow affect the 7-time Cy Young award winners credentials to get into the Hall? I don't see how he's hurting himself in any way.

    What difference does it make if 3 pitchers from the same team get into the Hall? Also, did you forget that he spent 3 complete seasons as the closer and notched 144 saves? Smoltz is a lock.
     
  9. PastorSBC1303

    PastorSBC1303 Active Member

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    I do not see how Clemens can hurt himself. He is as sure a lock for the HOF as any player in the league right now.

    I also agree that Smoltz will be in the HOF, but probably will take him a few trys.

    Did I read on here that someone said Derrick Lee for the HOF? I am a diehard Cubs fan and I really like Lee, however at this point he is not a HOF player. Now if he puts together several more years of strong play he might change that. But right now, he is not.
     
  10. JonnyP

    JonnyP New Member

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    I'm surprised that no one has brought up Ichiro. He's in his 7th MLB season, he has 6 gold gloves, 2 batting titles, 1 MVP (so far), and was the 2001 AL Rookie of the year. He has .332 career avg, .994 career FP, and was the 3rd fastest player in MLB history to 1500 hits. He's got to at least be considered for the HOF.
     
  11. Andy T.

    Andy T. Active Member

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    All I've said is that after 2 more seasons, he would be marginal. After 4 seasons, he's in. I think Anaheim is a big market. His days at Montreal won't hurt him.

    Also, remember that guys with great arms usually don't get very many assists, because no one runs on them. That is the case with Vlad - he has one of the most feared arms in the game. Also, a 20 point differential in FP for a RF is only about 6-7 additional errors a season. Certainly nothing to be concerned about. I'm confident his arm more than compensates for those additional 6 errors a season.

    I wonder how many guys who have a career .325 BA and .575 SLG are not in the Hall of Fame with his number of at-bats (after tacking on 2 more years)? My guess: None.
     
  12. Andy T.

    Andy T. Active Member

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    Not enough years yet. Give him about 4 more decent seasons, and he is in. I am a big Ichiro fan - I love watching him play. He is so unique in his skill set. If he plays into his late 30's and slows down a bit, I could see him becoming a power hitter (maybe 20-30 homers a year). But right now, he is using his speed to his advantage. But the guy has pop when he wants to.
     
  13. Andy T.

    Andy T. Active Member

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    Tom, as CC pointed out - Smoltz was a dominant closer for 3 years. He won't get in on the first ballot, but he will make it eventually. He is also one of the greatest post-season pitchers of all-time.

    The reason the Braves won so many divisional titles is they had three HOF pitchers - Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz. The first two are first ballot guys.
     
  14. Andy T.

    Andy T. Active Member

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    I agree on Kent. Right now he is not in. But if he finishes strong the next couple of seasons, that could change. Even after that, I think he will have some trouble, because he is kind of a jerk, and the writers may hold that against him.
     
  15. PastorSBC1303

    PastorSBC1303 Active Member

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    Come on guys, we know the real reason why Tom doesn't think Smoltz is a HOFer :laugh:

    I agree about Ichiro. I love to watch him play the game too, he is so different from anyone else in the game right now. Another couple years and he will be a lock for the HOF.
     
  16. TomVols

    TomVols New Member

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    CCROB wrote:
    Since becoming a PT P, Clemens is 10-11 with no CGs. His ERA this year is teetering towards league avg. His WHIP is sliding. The talking heads (right or wrong...okay...wrongly) pounce if you play one day into an area where you're not just past your prime, but may be in their all-knowing minds, a hindrance. And these have already done that to him. I disagree with them, but it is what it is. I don't think it will hurt him if he stops after another year or two. But if he keeps doing this for four or five more years, the fans will turn and so will the media. His 1st ballot status could take a hit. I wouldn't favor it, but again, perception is reality to the BBWA and media in general.

    On Smoltz, I grant you that he's outstanding in October. 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA. I think he probably should be in. However, I just don't know if the voters will allow a 3rd member of that staff in. I think his split time between the 'pen and the rotation may hurt him in the eyes of the omniscient voters. Comparables are Schilling, Drysdale, Orel, Brown, and Gooden. I believe him to be marginal. His October record makes me want to give him the benefit of the doubt, though. However, I just think he may fall through the cracks.
    BBWA voters can be very selective about what they choose to care about. Who knows how they'll treat him.

    Ichiro: Andy's right. He's not there yet. He's on pace, but not there yet. It will be interesting to see how he gets treated by the voters since he split his time between Japan and here. His HOFM is already well above what a HOFer should be.

    Speaking of Andy....
    That will kill him in the voters' minds.
    I don't disagree. But let me play devil's advocate. These guys have one ring...one. Will that tarnish their reputation? Should it tarnish their reputation? Probably not to the former, but it's not impossible to think the voters will say yes to the latter.
    I can agree with that. Anaheim being a big market is irrelevant. It's the whole "Left Coast" thing. ESPN doesn't show him in Prime Time, and October hasn't seen much of him.
    Go go Gadget Arms.....Andy's reaching again ;) This reminds me of the PR guy who said Charles Woodson should get credit for every interception his teammates had, because that was a pass not thrown Woodson's way. Kind of like saying it should be newsworthy that I am not running for president.
    I'd like to see this mathematically proven. If it's not, then you have a problem. If it is, then no FP should be considered for a RF. Ichiro's FP then is meaningless, in your book. I just can't follow you down sophistry lane, here ;)
    Let's see: using his AB, 30 players have BA's higher than his. Only one is not in the HOF, and he's active. 10 have his Slugging pct or higher, and 4 are not in the Hall (3 are active, one player is on both lists - more about him in a moment). So you may very well have an argument here. Again, the fear of being myopic is probably moot.

    Back to this one fellow on both lists. Here are his numbers. .331 BA, .429 OBP, .581 SLG. 295 HR, 1,095 RBI. .996 FP, higher than league avg at his position. Does he deserve to be in the Hall? ;)
     
    #56 TomVols, Aug 1, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 2, 2007
  17. EdSutton

    EdSutton New Member

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    Guess you'll never drop in to see Andy T., then. That is the street he lives on.

    Ed
     
  18. TomVols

    TomVols New Member

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    * Man-Ram: A bit of a loose cannon on defense. (Ever seen an OF cut a throw by an OF, in the OF the way he did in ’04?) His FP is less than league avg, sometimes markedly so. But at the dish, top five among OF in his era in most of the statistical categories, especially if you consider just their first 12 seasons with his first 12. However, only three players have whiffed more. And his stats take a hit when neutralized for the era and environment. But he will hit 500 HR before the end of the decade, and that will punch his ticket in the minds of many BBWA voters. But my question is this: will he get lost among the glut of supposed great candidates from this era? He suffers when you compare him to OFs all-time, falling way down the list many times. A spectacular ’04 WS with the Red Sox, which might wash away the horrible performances with the Indians in the 90s in the WS. Not quite the black ink of a HOFer, but his HOFM has him in. My only problem with putting him in now is what do you do with the Garret Andersons, Luis Gonzaleses, and players from other “hitting” positions who outrank him in some of the statistical areas? Put him in...just underneath the tag. Maybe when his career his complete, I’ll change my tune and claim he’s one of the greatest ever. It’s not outside the realm of possibility.

    * I just spent an hour doing and redoing the full statistical analysis and typing his rank in each category. Both times a surge wiped out what I typed. I'm not doing it a third time :)

    Jim Thome: 489 HR. He hits 500 and conventional wisdom/precedent says this is moot. But let’s play on: Among 1Bs, 2nd in his era in HR, 3rd in RBI. 10th in BA. Great OBP and SLG, and a great Run producer. Most Strikeouts in his era, 450 more than the second highest total. So-so in October.
    Just for fun, where is Thome all-time among 1Bs? Top ten in HR. Top 15 in RBI. Not even in the top 25 though in doubles. 34th best BA. Can’t break the top 40 in Hits. But 3rd all time in OBP and 4th in SLG. He’s a great slugger. One of the best in his era. But his era has quite a few. He’s no doubt one of the best sluggers in his era at his position and one of the best at his position all-time. But his Black ink hurts him and is HOFM hurts him. And with ManRam, we have some other marginal candidates who outrank him. I want to say yes, I really do. I like this guy. Marginal, but remember, it doesn’t matter. His 500 HR will get him there.

    Kenny Lofton: a .300 hitter at the moment lifetime. 4 GG, and in every AS game for the last half of the 90s. Lead league in SB 5 times and has most SB among actives, 15th overall. However, his black ink ends there. Among all hitters: top ten in Runs, 17th in hits. 2nd in triples. 18th best BA. He’s a great. But just not great enough. I’m going to say marginal, leaning no. If it were just up to my bias, I’d put him in. The BBWA will never go for it. He hasn’t reached one of the big numbers to get in (he’ll likely never reach the magic hit number, etc.). Too bad though. Great player.

    Enjoy....;)
     
  19. Andy T.

    Andy T. Active Member

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    What are you talking about? Do you actually ever watch a game, or do you just read statistics? Have you ever heard a 3rd base coach talk about how he knows every OF's throwing ability down to a tee? It is such common knowledge in baseball that the guys with cannons (and Vlad has a cannon) do not get run on much. I can't believe you are even arguing with this. Again, this is one of the reasons why defensive value is so hard to compute. There are too many things going on that don't show up in a box score.

    OK - here is your proof. 2001 - Vlad played 158 games in RF with 347 chances and 12 errors. That is 335/347 = .965 FP. Same chances with only 5 errors equals 342/347 = .986 - more than 20 points better with only 7 less errors. Vlad's average is only about 18 points less than the average, so that is about 6 more errors a season. So is that sophistry, or whatever you call it?

    I would have to see more numbers - like his career hits, the era he played in, where he played for park factor. I would also like to see some of his best seasons. Career numbers aren't the only story, unless you have 3000 hits or something like that.

    Your selective stat quotes aren't getting by me.

    BTW, I read a little James last night (Historical Abstract). He has Davey C. as the 26th best SS of all-time behind guys like Bert Campenaris and Tony Fernandez. Are we going to put those guys in, too? He even shot down the selective stat method and said that Davey is the only SS with 2300 hits who is not in the Hall. He pointed out that if you tweak that number just a bit to 2250, it brings in guys like Campenaris and others.

    Your arguments for Ted Simmons were much better and more convincing.
     
  20. Andy T.

    Andy T. Active Member

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    Ah, a quick search on baseball-reference.com and I see the guy is Todd Helton. Obviously, his stats need massive adjustment for playing at Coors. He only has 11 seasons. His best seasons seem to be behind him. Notice that I did not put him in my OP. He needs 4-5 more very good seasons before he is in. His power has really diminished. I sometimes wonder if this guy was a juicer. Same with Luis Gonzalez the year he hit 57 homers.
     
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