An undesirable prognosis

Discussion in 'Free-For-All Archives' started by Alcott, Nov 2, 2004.

  1. Alcott

    Alcott
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    On hearing the final random (supposedly) surveys before today's election, 2/3 have Bush winning by 1% to 4%, the rest have Kerry by 1% or 2%. It seems to be largely forgotten after the long legal altercations in Florida in 2000, but these surveys 4 years ago had Bush winning by 3% on the average. The result, of course, was a popular vote win for Gore, while the courts decided the Florida outcome and thus the electoral outcome.

    It is not good for Bush that this election appears to be in his favor by about 1.5%, all surveys taken into consideration. Whatever the factors were that caused the surveys to indicate a 3% Bush win in 2000 are probably at least as great in 2004... perhaps the "random" samples were not that random after all, that young voters with unlisted cellphones and no others had a much less likely chance of being selected to answer the surveys. Add to this the fact that Bush has made many people angry, and more will be working today to offer rides to the polls, to call likely Kerry voters, et al, coupled with the campaign work they have already done. And while Bush is likely to retain his base, the great motivator, anger, may make the difference in enough of the still disputed states to turn the election.

    Although I voted against him with the only anti vote that could matter, if Kerry does wint this one it should be no real surprise as to why the surveys missed it again.
     
  2. LorrieGrace

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    I heard Kerry say that he has 10,000 lawyers out and about today. If he doesn't win it one way, he is gonna try to win it in the courts. This whole thing could get real messy. I pray that is not the case!
     
  3. Daisy

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    Bush could hardly complain about that.
     
  4. LorrieGrace

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    I didn't say Bush complained. I was simply stating what I heard on the news.
     
  5. The Galatian

    The Galatian
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    The lawyers, from what I've read, intend to blunt the attempt to disinfranchise voters at the polls, not to correct it later in the courts.

    There's a lot of them out there, advising people of their rights and how to deal with attempts to prevent them from voting.

    A good use of lawyers, in my opinion.
     

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