Baseball Stats Guru Explains Why Trump Won't Win--"Not Enough Morons"

Discussion in 'Politics' started by InTheLight, Feb 25, 2016.

  1. InTheLight

    InTheLight
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2010
    Messages:
    16,176
    Likes Received:
    610
    The man who revolutionized baseball with statistical analysis says there just aren't enough morons in the country to elect Donald Trump.

    Bill James, in a blog post, says the numbers won’t work for Trump in a two-person race. James is the inventor of what’s called sabermetrics, or the use of advanced data to analyze baseball. “When you divide the public in two and then divide the voters in one of those halves among five candidates or more, a candidate can win by dominating the moron vote because it only takes about one-seventh of the total population to take the ‘lead’ under those circumstances. But when you’re talking about needing 51% of the WHOLE population, rather than needing 30% of half of the population, you run out of morons,” he said. Politico was first to write about the post.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/am...ect-trump-baseball-stats-guru-says-2016-02-25
     
  2. carpro

    carpro
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2004
    Messages:
    20,894
    Likes Received:
    294
    There were enough morons to elect the zero...twice.
     
    • Like Like x 3
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  3. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2006
    Messages:
    38,273
    Likes Received:
    777
    Professor Who Says His Statistical Model Has Accurately Predicted Election Outcomes for 104 Years Unveils Odds of a President Donald Trump


    A political science professor at Long Island’s Stoney Brook University believes the statistical odds of businessman Donald Trump becoming the next president are between 97 and 99 percent.

    That professor, Helmut Norpoth, says his statistical forecast model shows the Manhattan mogul’s chances of beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton are at 97 percent, while his chances of defeating Bernie Sanders are at 99 percent. Overall, the model predicts that there is a 61 percent chance that a Republican will win the White House in November.

    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...ars-unveils-odds-of-a-president-donald-trump/
     
  4. InTheLight

    InTheLight
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2010
    Messages:
    16,176
    Likes Received:
    610
    Well, anyone can see that this guy thinks Trump has a 36% better chance of winning the Presidency than any other Republican candidate. That's funny, because Trump HAS NEVER polled or won a primary by a 36% margin over anyone. I say this guy is full of it.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2006
    Messages:
    38,273
    Likes Received:
    777
    Well of course he is not Rubio either.
     
  6. Salty

    Salty
    Expand Collapse
    20,000 Posts Club
    Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2003
    Messages:
    22,069
    Likes Received:
    216
    tell me if I am wrong - but hasn't Trump won by a bigger margin over (all) his opponents - than Hilary has won over just one candidate?

    (INL - you do realize that there have been about 10 R candidates......)
     

Share This Page

Loading...