Can Netanyahu gain from Hamas's victory?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Ben W, Jan 29, 2006.

  1. Ben W

    Ben W
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2002
    Messages:
    8,868
    Likes Received:
    0
    Article
    Jan. 29, 2006 2:56
    Analysis: Can Netanyahu gain from Hamas's victory?
    By GIL HOFFMAN

    When the results of the Palestinian elections were first reported on Thursday, a Kadima minister responded that he didn't know where there was more joy - in Ramallah and Gaza City or in the Likud's Tel Aviv headquarters, Metzudat Ze'ev.

    Shortly thereafter, Likud chairman Binyamin Netanyahu called a Likud faction meeting in the Knesset to tell the cameras he had warned all along against building a Hamas state a few kilometers away from Ra'anana and Kfar Saba.

    As in the press conference he held on September 11, 2001, Netanyahu took credit for predicting the rise of radical Islam.

    Netanyahu's "I told you so" show will continue on Sunday with a Likud rally in Netanya and a tour of the security fence near Jerusalem. The fence tour will highlight Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's decision last week to move the fence closer to the Jerusalem-Tel Aviv highway to keep out the Arab village Beit Iksa between Mevaseret Zion and Jerusalem's Ramot neighborhood.

    By Monday's newspapers, nearly all the Israeli voters will have heard Netanyahu's pleas to elect the Likud and prevent the additional unilateral withdrawal in Judea and Samaria that Olmert has not ruled out. The following day, the first polls since Hamas's victory will be published.

    By all logic, the Likud will go up by at least five seats from the average of 15 from the most recent polls before the Palestinian election. The Likud's gain should come at the expense of Kadima, which was caught off-guard by the Hamas win, and Labor, which tried desperately to shift the election's agenda to socio-economic issues.

    But Netanyahu failed to take advantage of three previous opportunities to gain in the polls. Unlike when Labor chairman Amir Peretz was elected, the Likud did not make a substantial gain in the polls after Netanyahu won the Likud primary.

    When Sharon suffered his stroke and he was replaced by a less experienced, non-war hero in Olmert, Netanyahu's Likud did not succeed in recovering the Likud voters who had left along with Sharon to Kadima.

    Ten days ago, there was a terrorist attack near the Tel Aviv bus station that has been all but forgotten. In a bad omen for the Likud, the party did not gain in the polls despite the Likud's campaign that started on that day on billboards nationwide warning the public that Olmert's policies would result in more terror.

    Netanyahu got away with not gaining in the polls following those three incidents, but he cannot afford to miss another opportunity. He must rise in the polls to at least 20 mandates and pass Labor for second place to have any hope of making a significant dent in Kadima's support and winning the March 28 election.

    If Netanyahu succeeds in taking advantage of Hamas's victory, a snowball effect will be created and Kadima could be in serious trouble. If he fails when he has such an obvious chance for electoral gain, Netanyahu will be lucky to be the opposition leader and it is likely that nothing will be able to stop Kadima from winning a Hamas-style landslide victory.

    http://snipurl.com/m0z3
     
  2. KenH

    KenH
    Expand Collapse
    Active Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2002
    Messages:
    32,485
    Likes Received:
    0
    Netanyahu had his chance in the 1990s and blew it. I don't know if he can make a Richard Nixon-type comeback or not. We'll see in a couple of months.
     
  3. Joseph_Botwinick

    Joseph_Botwinick
    Expand Collapse
    <img src=/532.jpg>Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2000
    Messages:
    17,527
    Likes Received:
    0
    Not sure. Personally, I would much rather see Sharansky make a comeback and run for Prime Minister.

    Joseph Botwinick
     
  4. fromtheright

    fromtheright
    Expand Collapse
    <img src =/2844.JPG>

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2002
    Messages:
    2,772
    Likes Received:
    0
    Oh no, not another neo-con in power?! Someone who treats bad guys like bad guys. We can't have that!
     
  5. Joseph_Botwinick

    Joseph_Botwinick
    Expand Collapse
    <img src=/532.jpg>Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2000
    Messages:
    17,527
    Likes Received:
    0
    [​IMG]

    Joseph Botwinick
     
  6. hillclimber

    hillclimber
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2005
    Messages:
    2,075
    Likes Received:
    0
    chuckle [​IMG]
     
  7. Major B

    Major B
    Expand Collapse
    <img src=/6069.jpg>

    Joined:
    May 6, 2003
    Messages:
    2,294
    Likes Received:
    0
    The only way to make this situation worse in a hurry is to bring Bibi back, so of course, that is what will happen.

    Bibi is not a neo-con, nor is he a working class right-winger like me. Bibi is the real thing, a truly radical nationalist.

    Oh boy! Gotta remember to call my broker and buy Defense stocks and coffin makers.
     
  8. Joseph_Botwinick

    Joseph_Botwinick
    Expand Collapse
    <img src=/532.jpg>Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2000
    Messages:
    17,527
    Likes Received:
    0
    Major B,

    Correct. Sharansky is a neo-con and would be good to help Israel through this situation.

    Joseph Botwinick
     

Share This Page

Loading...