Cruz Tops Trump in Nationwide Poll of Likely GOP Primary Voters

Discussion in 'Politics' started by InTheLight, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. InTheLight

    InTheLight
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    As I've stated elsewhere, Trump has peaked. He has been dropping in the polls of late, however even I was surprised with the results of the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

    NBC_WSJ Poll_021716.JPG

    Poll was taken in the days after the debate in South Carolina on Saturday. Just a month ago a poll by the same NBC/WSJ group showed Trump leading Cruz by 13 points--33 to 20. It appears that the cracks are starting to appear in Trump's campaign.

    Look for Trump to pooh-pooh the poll, call NBC News a liberal organization, etc. (what about the WSJ, Donald? LOL.)

    http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/surprise-trump-falls-behind-cruz-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296
     
  2. TCassidy

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    don't trump.png
     
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  3. Rolfe

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    I have been a bit out of the ring for the last couple of days. Thought that I heard Trump was threatening a third-party run. If so, he would probably consider this good reason to break his word.
     
  4. poncho

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    Trump hits new high in Quinnipiac national poll

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269663-trump-up-20-nationwide-poll


    Trump dominates, Sanders ties Clinton in nationwide poll

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...es-clinton-in-nationwide-poll/article/2583421


    Trump earns 44 percent support from registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters. Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) comes in a distant second, with 17 percent.

    http://www.wnd.com/2016/02/poll-44-back-trump-nationwide/


    Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natio..._Republican_Party_2016_presidential_primaries


    The WSJ is owned by News Corp. In other words the WSJ is one of neocon Rupert Murdoch's propaganda outlets. In other other words the WSJ is a NEOCONSERVATIVE magazine it is not a conservative magazine.
     
    #4 poncho, Feb 18, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2016
  5. 777

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  6. Rippon

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    I'll make a prediction just for South Carolina.

    The second-place finisher will be 22% points behind Trump. The Donald will get at least 40% this time.

    Now that I've put that out there --you'll be able to throw either rocks or roses at me when the tally is done.
     
  7. InTheLight

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    No way. I'd say Trump wins by 10%-12%, maybe even less. Rubio is coming on strong after multiple endorsements.
     
  8. Rippon

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    The above assertions were made on Feb. 17th. Your wishful thinking has been exposed to be just that.
     
  9. carpro

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    Trump's appeal has always been limited. In a crowded field, it puts him on top. As the field thins out his appeal appears to lessen. But the truth is that a lot of his support in the primaries comes from liberals who think he's the most beatable.

    Primary Crossover voting at it's best.

    In a crowded field, it makes a big difference.
     
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  10. InTheLight

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    You said Trump would win SC by 22 points; I said he'd win by 10-12 points maybe less. You said he would get 40%. Here are the results:

    Trump. 32.5
    Rubio. 22.5
    Cruz. 22.3

    Trump has never gotten more than 49% of the vote in any state and most of his wins have been with 35%-40% of the vote. That was true in February and is still true.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk
     
  11. Rippon

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    Ha,ha, ha! It didn't help one bit.
     
  12. Rippon

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    The exceptions are:
    La. -- 41
    Haw. -- 42
    Miss. -- 47
    Fla. -- 46
    Mo. -- 41
    N.C. -- 40
    N.M.Islands --73
    Nev. -- 46
    Ala. -- 43
    Mass. -- 49
     
  13. InTheLight

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    N.M Islands is not a state. He has never gotten more than 50% of the vote in any state.

    Here are the results where he got 40% or less.

    Alaska 33.5% (lost to Cruz)
    Arkansas 32.7%
    D.C. 13.2% (lost to Rubio, D.C. is predominantly black and is not a state)
    Georgia 38.8%
    Iowa 24.3% (lost to Cruz)
    Idaho 28.1% (lost to Cruz)
    Illinois 38.8%
    Kansas 23.3% (lost to Cruz)
    Kentucky 35.9%
    Maine 32.6% (lost to Cruz)
    Michigan 36.5%
    Minnesota 21.3% (lost to Rubio)
    New Hampshire 35.3%
    Ohio 35.6%
    Oklahoma 28.3% (lost to Cruz)
    South Carolina 32.5%
    Tennessee 38.9%
    Texas 26.7% (lost to Cruz)
    Virginia 34.7%
    Vermont 32.7%

    If you tally up all the votes across all the states so far, Trump has received 37.0% of the vote.
     
  14. Aaron

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    Thinking that a majority of Cruz voters wouldn't vote for Trump if Cruz dropped out is presumptuous at best. I voted for Cruz in my state, but if Cruz weren't in the running I would have voted for Trump. I think over half of the Cruz voters would vote for Trump if the election were held today.
     
  15. InTheLight

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    Based on what? Gut feeling?

    There has been 12 GOP candidates drop out of the race so far. Trump's numbers have ticked up a bit, from about 33% overall of GOP voters to about 37% overall of GOP voters. I seriously doubt more than half of Cruz voters would jump over to Trump.
     
  16. Aaron

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    Yeah.

    The only real contenders were Trump and Cruz.
    K.
     

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