Does anybody know??

Discussion in 'History Forum' started by tamborine lady, Mar 12, 2005.

  1. tamborine lady

    tamborine lady
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    [​IMG]

    I once read an article about how a country goes through certain phases, and eventually after 2 or 3 humdred years, it came back to the beginning.

    It went something like this: First there is a war, and they win. Then the period where they set up their government, and everybody more or less works together. after awhile the citizens become complacent and let the elected officials do what they want.

    Then there comes a time of great prosperity, then greed, then manipulation of the people, then a revolt, and a new bunch takes over and it starts all over again,

    Does this sound like anything anybody has heard before??

    If so, I would like to know what it is and where I can find it.

    Seems it was written by a historian of societies.

    Any help will be greatly appreciated.

    Peace,

    Tam
     
  2. rsr

    rsr
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    Yes, it sounds familiar and represents a popularization (and simplification) of the work of numerous historians.

    You might find some nations that fit this model, but it is often a stretch to make the facts fit the outline. Most of the respected work deals with civilizations, not nations.

    For example, the history of England doesn't fit into the scheme very well. Neither does Russia or any number of nations (or countries.)

    It works pretty well in China in reference to dynasties, but dynasties (unlike nations or countries) have a special dynamic.

    There have been several analyses of "life cycles," including by Plato, Toynbee, Sorokin and Quigley.

    A practical analysis, based on nation states (or equivalent) is an excellent book by Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, which has the virtue of having been written before the fall of the Soviet Union and thus allows the advantages and disadvantages of the theory to be weighed.
     
  3. fromtheright

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    TL,

    You may be talking about:

    This quote is generally attributed to Alexander Tyler but there are websites which call this an unattributed statement. I haven't been able to find which work it is supposedly quoted from.
     
  4. tamborine lady

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    [​IMG]

    Hey thanks guys. Both your answers were helpful. From the right, that was the one I was thinking of.

    It sounds so good it's a shame it's not accurate.

    Oh well, back to the drawing board. :D

    Thanks again,

    Tam
     
  5. fromtheright

    fromtheright
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    Well, I don't know that it's not accurate. I suspect that it is, but that it is one of those quotes that has been circulated so often that people are quoting other people quoting other people. Which, in any case, doesn't diminish the truth of the observation.
     
  6. Phillip

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    One reason that we are told in school as the reason we study history is that history always repeats itself.
     
  7. rsr

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    It's accurate only if you pick your examples very carefully and ignore many others.
     
  8. Phillip

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    Agree, there are way too many variables to have a simple outcome.
     
  9. tamborine lady

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    [​IMG]

    Phillip said:

    One reason that we are told in school as the reason we study history is that history always repeats itself.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Thats one of the reasons I wanted to read the article. Because we hear so often that history does repeat itself!

    This is all a great help, thanks! [​IMG]

    Peace,

    Tam
     
  10. Ed Edwards

    Ed Edwards
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    See Oswald Spengler's THE DECLINE OF THE WEST.
    I don't have it in front of me (i checked up on it
    in 1975) May be in two Volumes I (Knopf, 1926),
    II (Knopf, 1928).

    A short summary is in CITIES IN FLIGHT (AVON, 1970)
    a special edition containing the stories:

    THEY SHALL HAVE STARS, 1957 by James Blish
    A LIFE FOR THE STARS, 1962 by James Blish
    EARTHMAN COME HOME, 1955 by James Blish
    THE TRIUMPTH OF TIME, 1958 by James Blish

    Also there is a AFTERWORD by Richard D. Mullen
    which speaks of the Spengler book.
    The fictional civilization here is compared to the
    actual civilizations Spengler compared.

    According to that source our civilization
    (the Western Culture) is at the end of the "TRANSITION FROM NAPOLEONISM
    TO CAESARISM" - contending states dominated by
    money ("Democracy").

    Next era is: CAESARISM - "victory of force-politics over Money;
    Decay of the nations into a formless population,
    gradually increasing crudity of despotism"

    The dividing line between these two eras for
    the Classical Culture was 100AD.
    The history covered by the book of ACTS and the birth of the Church
    was in a time much like today.
     
  11. Phillip

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    Ed . . . the true "rennaissance man" of the 21st century!
     
  12. Ed Edwards

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    Excerpt from a page at the Agnostic Church site:
    http://www.agnostic.org/BIBLEB-02.htm

    Having said all of the above, it must be noted that Western Civilization is proceeding predictably on its course towards a certain death in the next century or two, and about now is as good a time as any for a new religion to "pop up" which will eventually form the basis for the successor civilization to Western Civilization. Thus, just as Christianity was basically born and nurtured in the bowels of the Roman Empire, before becoming the dominant religion of Western Civilization, the Agnostic Church is designed to be born and nurtured by Western Civilization, with the ultimate result being a new civilization which will supplant Western Civilization at some point in the future.

    A chart comparing the typical Epochs (of
    Oswald Spengler with three civilizaions (Classical,
    Arabic, Western /not done with all epochs yet)
    appears on this site:

    http://www.draftymanor.com/bart/h_spengl.htm

    (this is the chart of which i shall speak more, or
    that interested parties can study. I shows, for example,
    that which i said in my last post.)
     
  13. tamborine lady

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    [​IMG]

    Hey Ed, that was some good reading. Thanks.

    Peace,

    Tam
     
  14. ktn4eg

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    Re Philip's March 13 posting:

    I was of the opinion that a history class is made up of people learning that people never learn.

    A kernel of truth perhaps?
     

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