Electoral Count 10/22/04

Those polls look good to me!

 

Current count Bush 271 Kerry 257. It's been rocking back and forth, with Kerry in the lead two days ago.

 

Whoops. This morning, it's Kerry 257, Bush 254.

 

RCP Electoral Count: Bush 234 - Kerry 210*

 

Makes you wonder if Galatian has a direct feed from MoveON.org.

 

This one:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It uses the state polls, weighting the latest ones to get the results.

You can find Republican ones, and Democrat ones, but this one seems to be pretty neutral.

Might be good to check one like that out, every now and then.

 

Polls and projections are all over the place on this one. Depends on how they add the poll results and determine how to allot the states. Some require a three percentage point lead, like Rasmussen, others allot the state if there's any kind of a lean or lead at all, like Mason-Dixon. Gallup, which has been leaning toward and favoring Bush throughout much of the campaign now gives Kerry over 300 electoral votes, and leads of 5 plus points in the "big" battleground states of Ohio, PA, Michigan and Florida. It might also be interesting to note that Zogby/Reuters, which has the best record for accuracy over the past four elections, has Kerry with 280 electoral votes which it says are pretty solid. This does not include Florida, which they are unwilling to predict, even though Kerry has led in the daily tracking polls there for the past seven days. Wonder why they're shying away from that one?

I agree that it's seems a bit odd that Hawaii, which is one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, shows up as "weak Bush" while Colorado shows up as "weak Kerry" although stranger things have happened. Here in San Antonio, Texas, which is supposedly in the heart of Bush Country in his home state, you wouldn't know Bush is even running, judging by yard signs and bumper stickers. No TV ads, though, except on national satellite channels.

Real Clear Politics missed the mark nationally by 12 percent in 2000, and missed eight states, giving them to Bush when they were won, in some cases handily, by Gore.

I wouldn't bet on a prediction for this election, though in recent days the Bush sink and Kerry surge has been supplemented by a shrill tone of anxiety in Bush campaign officials appearing on television, and by the nervous chattering of Rush Limbaugh, which is a dead giveaway that Kerry must be in the lead.

 

President Bush is clearly surging and Senator Kerry is falling fast. Apparently the undecideds are beginning to break Mr. Bush's direction. The panic among the Democrats is evident in them having to get Bill Clinton out of his sick bed to campaign for Mr. Kerry when it clear that Mr. Clinton has not recovered enough strength to be campaigning. I hope this does not cause Mr. Clinton to have a physical set back.

 

Go back to bed Billy Bob and take that ridiculous smile off your face!