Electoral Prediction

I'm afraid you're right, but I hope you're wrong.

 

It will be higher than that for Obama. Consider this: Obama is likely to be first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in '76 to receive more than 50% of the popular vote. And Carter only received 50.1%. You have to go back to LBJ in '64 for the last time a Democrat received a significant majority of the popular vote (he got over 60%). Obama won't come close to that, though. I think he will get no more than 52%.

 

I think you may be right, or maybe have underestimated Obama's margin of victory, unfortunately.

 

I'm not in this game of following polls.
I know who I will vote for.
As to the outcome..... it will be determined by the people and God knows.
I know God and his keeping is sufficient for me.

 

Obama 275
McCain 263

:tear:

 

Bucking the trend here:

McCain 272
Obama 266

 

I'm inclined to agree with Roger. Every poll I see is within the margin of error.

 

I lost my map , but I think this really could happen. I think Obama will get Florida. but I think McCain will take Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I don't think Obama will be able to get the blue collar working class votes in those key states. He was crushed there by Clinton.

So many variables though. Just thought I would go out on a limb .

 

I do not believe Obama will get Florida. In fact it will not even e close here. Roger probablyhas a good bead on the overall electoral votes.

 

I debated and debated that one, finally put it in Obama's slot.

I do wonder about the race issue deep down. Will voters, in the privacy of the polling booth, pull the lever for a black man? I wish that were not an issue, but have been out of the country since 1995 and can't get my finger on the pulse on that issue.

 

I gave both Ohio and Florida to McCain, and still fell a little short. That is with the smaller swing states going to McCain. I hope Roger is correct!

 

That's not the issue, IMO. If anything, that could garner him some votes instead, particularly from the younger voters who want to be a part of "history".

 

What did you do with Pennsylvania? That could be the key to this whole thing. When Clinton smoked Obama there I wrote it out of Obama's reach.

 

From my position in the city, I don't know which will be worse - Obama winning or Obama losing.

So much is in jeopardy if he wins, and if he loses, will there be riots and accusations of racist-based fraud?

So many here are for Obama BECAUSE he is black. No other reason. And if you disagree, you're a racist. They can't see that racism can go the other way, too.

 

If Obama wins I think there will be an atmosphere that will have the air of civil war.

 

Tell that to people who didn't really have the right to vote until 1964.

 

Obama 54% 353 Electoral College votes
McCain 43% 185 Electoral College votes
Others 3%

Senate:
58 Democrats
40 Republicans
2 Independents

House:
258 Democrats
177 Republicans

 

Being very positive and optimistic here

Obama 390
McCain 148


Obama will win Omaha Nebraska land of Buffet for 1 electoral vote :thumbs: that will get him to 390




Early voting North Carolina 2 million or more

Blessings to all the people who are staying in line and holding the line and not giving up, we need to improve this process to early voting nationally with more hours and more satillite stations, day of registraion, and mail in voting. Being in longs lines in early voting up to 5 to 8 hours is like a poll tax.

 

You're right, I don't see Obama getting FL but I also don't see McCain stealing PA.