Electoral Prediction

Discussion in 'Politics' started by saturneptune, Nov 3, 2008.

  1. saturneptune

    saturneptune
    Expand Collapse
    Banned

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2006
    Messages:
    13,977
    Likes Received:
    0
    Obama 290
    McCain 248

    What do you think?
     
  2. Tom Butler

    Tom Butler
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2005
    Messages:
    9,031
    Likes Received:
    0
    I'm afraid you're right, but I hope you're wrong.
     
  3. Andy T.

    Andy T.
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2005
    Messages:
    3,147
    Likes Received:
    0
    It will be higher than that for Obama. Consider this: Obama is likely to be first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in '76 to receive more than 50% of the popular vote. And Carter only received 50.1%. You have to go back to LBJ in '64 for the last time a Democrat received a significant majority of the popular vote (he got over 60%). Obama won't come close to that, though. I think he will get no more than 52%.
     
  4. dragonfly

    dragonfly
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2008
    Messages:
    1,594
    Likes Received:
    0
    I think you may be right, or maybe have underestimated Obama's margin of victory, unfortunately.
     
  5. windcatcher

    windcatcher
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2007
    Messages:
    2,764
    Likes Received:
    0
    I'm not in this game of following polls.
    I know who I will vote for.
    As to the outcome..... it will be determined by the people and God knows.
    I know God and his keeping is sufficient for me.
     
  6. webdog

    webdog
    Expand Collapse
    Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2005
    Messages:
    24,691
    Likes Received:
    0
    Obama 275
    McCain 263

    :tear:
     
  7. NaasPreacher (C4K)

    NaasPreacher (C4K)
    Expand Collapse
    Administrator
    Administrator

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    26,806
    Likes Received:
    78
    Bucking the trend here:

    McCain 272
    Obama 266
     
    #7 NaasPreacher (C4K), Nov 3, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 3, 2008
  8. Bro. Curtis

    Bro. Curtis
    Expand Collapse
    <img src =/curtis.gif>

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2001
    Messages:
    20,264
    Likes Received:
    4
    I'm inclined to agree with Roger. Every poll I see is within the margin of error.
     
  9. NaasPreacher (C4K)

    NaasPreacher (C4K)
    Expand Collapse
    Administrator
    Administrator

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    26,806
    Likes Received:
    78
    I lost my map :( , but I think this really could happen. I think Obama will get Florida. but I think McCain will take Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    I don't think Obama will be able to get the blue collar working class votes in those key states. He was crushed there by Clinton.

    So many variables though. Just thought I would go out on a limb :).
     
  10. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2006
    Messages:
    38,387
    Likes Received:
    790
    I do not believe Obama will get Florida. In fact it will not even e close here. Roger probablyhas a good bead on the overall electoral votes.
     
  11. NaasPreacher (C4K)

    NaasPreacher (C4K)
    Expand Collapse
    Administrator
    Administrator

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    26,806
    Likes Received:
    78
    I debated and debated that one, finally put it in Obama's slot.

    I do wonder about the race issue deep down. Will voters, in the privacy of the polling booth, pull the lever for a black man? I wish that were not an issue, but have been out of the country since 1995 and can't get my finger on the pulse on that issue.
     
  12. webdog

    webdog
    Expand Collapse
    Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2005
    Messages:
    24,691
    Likes Received:
    0
    I gave both Ohio and Florida to McCain, and still fell a little short. That is with the smaller swing states going to McCain. I hope Roger is correct!
     
  13. webdog

    webdog
    Expand Collapse
    Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2005
    Messages:
    24,691
    Likes Received:
    0
    That's not the issue, IMO. If anything, that could garner him some votes instead, particularly from the younger voters who want to be a part of "history".
     
  14. NaasPreacher (C4K)

    NaasPreacher (C4K)
    Expand Collapse
    Administrator
    Administrator

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2003
    Messages:
    26,806
    Likes Received:
    78
    What did you do with Pennsylvania? That could be the key to this whole thing. When Clinton smoked Obama there I wrote it out of Obama's reach.
     
  15. Debby in Philly

    Debby in Philly
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2003
    Messages:
    2,537
    Likes Received:
    0
    From my position in the city, I don't know which will be worse - Obama winning or Obama losing.

    So much is in jeopardy if he wins, and if he loses, will there be riots and accusations of racist-based fraud?

    So many here are for Obama BECAUSE he is black. No other reason. And if you disagree, you're a racist. They can't see that racism can go the other way, too.
     
  16. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2006
    Messages:
    38,387
    Likes Received:
    790
    If Obama wins I think there will be an atmosphere that will have the air of civil war.
     
  17. JustChristian

    JustChristian
    Expand Collapse
    Banned

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2007
    Messages:
    3,833
    Likes Received:
    0
    Tell that to people who didn't really have the right to vote until 1964.
     
  18. KenH

    KenH
    Expand Collapse
    Active Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2002
    Messages:
    32,485
    Likes Received:
    0
    Obama 54% 353 Electoral College votes
    McCain 43% 185 Electoral College votes
    Others 3%

    Senate:
    58 Democrats
    40 Republicans
    2 Independents

    House:
    258 Democrats
    177 Republicans
     
  19. YOUTUBECANBESAVED

    YOUTUBECANBESAVED
    Expand Collapse
    Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2007
    Messages:
    334
    Likes Received:
    0
    Being very positive and optimistic here

    Obama 390
    McCain 148


    Obama will win Omaha Nebraska land of Buffet for 1 electoral vote :thumbs: that will get him to 390


    [​IMG]

    Early voting North Carolina 2 million or more

    Blessings to all the people who are staying in line and holding the line and not giving up, we need to improve this process to early voting nationally with more hours and more satillite stations, day of registraion, and mail in voting. Being in longs lines in early voting up to 5 to 8 hours is like a poll tax.
     
  20. LeBuick

    LeBuick
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2006
    Messages:
    11,537
    Likes Received:
    0
    You're right, I don't see Obama getting FL but I also don't see McCain stealing PA.
     

Share This Page

Loading...