**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Revmitchell, Oct 29, 2012.

  1. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell
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    Very early on, before this campaign started in earnest, live or die, I publicly cast my lot with Gallup and Rasmussen. As a poll addict going back to 2000, these are the outlets that have always played it straight. It's got nothing to do with politics and everything to do with credibility and not wanting to kid myself. So when an outlet like Gallup tells me Romney is up seven-points, 52-45%, among those who have already voted, that's very big news.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/29/Gallup-Shock-Romney-Up-7-with-early-voters
     
  2. Arbo

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    Yep, the country's turning Mormon already.
     
  3. saturneptune

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    Gallup is the one poll I can remember from being a child, many years ago, as being accurate. They called the Nixon-Kennedy race correctly. The only time they have ever been off is 1980. However, even in 1980, Gallup noticed a major shift. On October 26, the split was 47-39, in favor of Carter. Two days before the election, they called it an even race, a very major shift. The election day results were 51-42 in favor of Reagan.

    The normal pattern is that a few days before the election, the nation decides collectively who will win. We are just a few days before that event, and the movement is towards Romney. Another thread predicted 52-47. I think more like 51-48, but the electoral spread will be much wider.

    My take is that Romney is sweeping the midwest. I believe when all votes are counted, Romney will sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana and Iowa. There is an outside shot of carrying Minnesota. This can be added to New Hampshire in the northeast, probably the only state in that area. Romney will sweep the south and the middle states. In Kentucky, the split will be around 60-37.

    One of the tactics in a year like this is to capture states with less than a 5% difference. For example, in 1992, Clinton did a very good job in using this tactic. One state that Clinton carried was Montana, very unusual for a Democrat. In the west, Obama can only count on California, Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico. (thanks a lot Rev Mitchell, LOL). Romney is going to carry Nevada and Colorado. Of these states just listed, Romney's best chance is Oregon, but believe he will fall short.

    I do not believe this storm will sway anything towards Obama.

    Having said all of that, one must look at the total picture as far as solving some of the nonsense of the last twelve years. I believe there will be a Republican President, Republican House, and a Democrat Senate. The Republicans could have captured the Senate if Lugar had won in Indiana, and there was a different nominee in Missouri. It is my sincere hope that Romney will inspire an atmosphere of everyone wanting to govern and serve, instead of pollitical games and division. There are some Democrat Senators that can be reasoned with. One thing that does impress me about Romney is working with the Democrat legislature in Massachusettes.

    It is my hope that the next four years will begin a period of solving some of our problems. One thing that trancends the politics is having a President that has leadership ability and can inspire the people and Congress. Also, I think one issue we all forget about, and perhaps the most lingering influence of any President, is nominees to the Supreme Court.
     
  4. Oldtimer

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    Saturneptune, I truly hope your analysis is correct for many reasons.

    For one, if the Senate remains in control of the Democrats, that enough pressure can be put on Harry Reid to bring legislation to the floor for a vote. From what I understand, he's held back anything offered by the Republicans, if there was the potential that it would pass the Senate, too. If the people have spoken, the House has spoken, and a Republican president speaks, the eyes of the public will be squarely on Reid.

    Your last point maybe the most important one in all of this. One that is rarely mentioned. We don't need any more judges in the highest court in the land making laws. We don't need judges who will look to international law, instead of the Constitution, for guidance. We don't need judges would will even think about approving shreia law for a specific group of people. We need judges like Judge Andrew Napolitano on the bench.
     
  5. Arbo

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    I believe when all votes are counted, Romney will sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, -SN.

    I cannot speak to the other states, but I think the failed (by a wide margin) recall of Scott Walker is a good indication of the political shift in Wisconsin. I think that there's a fair chance of it going Republican.
     

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