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Global Economy?

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by poncho, Feb 28, 2011.

  1. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    In the case of the Detroit auto industry, yes it is.

    You mention the trade deficit problem. Trade deficits are not necessarily tied to our manufacturing base loss. Trade barriers and tariffs are a huge factor.

    Pricing is another. Do you want to pay $30 for a three pack of men's underwear made in the U.S. or would you rather pay $12.99 for those made in the Honduras?

    I recently bought my kids some polo shirts at Kohl's. The regular price was $17.99. They were on sale for $12.99 but if you bought 2 of them, you would pay $19.99. I had a special coupon I received in the mail for 30% off anything, which I used. I ended up buying 2 kid's polo shirts for $13.99, or $7.00 each. I figure Kohl's paid $4.00 for them at wholesale prices. How can the U.S. compete against $4.00 shirts?
     
  2. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    Not entirely. Unions workers are fairly well doomed these days. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen. Temp workers. That's where the real action is. 8 to 10 severly devalued dollars per hour, no benefits and little hope of ever becoming "hired on". On top of that comes 3 dollar gas (at the moment) and upwards of 5 dollars for a pound of burger, fresh veggies? Fagitabotit! Well, maybe for Sunday dinner. That's progress but in the wrong direction. The people of Detroit, the ones who aren't down here in TN already are looking to move here to become the newest wave of temp workers and the ones I've talked to are thankful to get that work.

    Yes indeed they are. And quite unfair as it turns out.

    I'll buy American and make em last! :cool:

    I have no doubt you're a thirfty shopper an all. One has to be today considering the dubious fact that the American dollar has been devalued 90 something percent since the early 1970's.

    Imagine what you could have bought your kids if your current paycheck's dollars had the same purchacing power as those back in 1973. Where'd it go? Wealth doesn't just disappear. To answer your question. The U.S middle class cannot compete in this global economy unless it's willing to work like the Chinese and accept wages that are lower than the Indian's wages. That's kinda the whole though point isn't it?
     
    #22 poncho, Mar 1, 2011
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  3. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Devalued compared to what?

    Where did it go? To buy more and more new products. Microwave ovens, CD players, VCRs, DVD players, home computers, laptops, cell phones, smart phones, cable TV service, cell phone service, internet access, internet routers and modems, flat screen TV's, Blu ray players, fancy coffee machines, bread makers, water purifiers, etc. Look around your home--I bet you can name 15 things in there that didn't even exist in 1973. Not to mention the price of gasoline increasing 10X.

    What do you think is soaking up more and more of our money?
     
  4. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    The dollar's purchasing power in the early seventies. I thought I made that point. Sorry.

    You ever think about getting a job at Fortune? This last bit sounded as if it came straight from one of their articles.

    “Americans, the world’s consumers, continue much of the behavior that helped the U.S savings rate drop so low,” Fortune

    "It's all those consumers consuming new gadgets that's to blame." It's got nothing to do with our debt based global economy that seems able to only move wealth in one direction. Into fewer and fewer hands.
     
    #24 poncho, Mar 1, 2011
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  5. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    You made a statement. Now you need to establish that the dollars purchasing power has decreased 90%. Prove it.

    I've just listed a dozen things that we are purchasing in 2011 that we didn't buy in 1973. Take a look at the amount of money you spend on cable/satellite TV service, internet access, phone landline service and cell phone service. Sadly, for my family it's about $250 per month. In 1973 there was only landline phone service at about $12 per month. That's $3,000 per year to rearrange and push electrons around in 2011 vs. $144 in 1973.
     
    #25 InTheLight, Mar 2, 2011
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  6. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    Okay, but after I do I expect you to prove your statements. It's a two way street.

    Here goes. You ready?

    [FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]A) From 1776 to 1912 (136 years), the value of the dollar, relative to the Consumer Price Index, increased by 11%. A dollar could buy 11% more goods in 1912 than in 1776. Thus, if in 1776, you sat on your savings pile of $1,000,000 for 136 years, it would then be worth $1,110,000 in purchasing power (it will have appreciated in value by 11%). A loaf of bread for Thomas Jefferson cost the same as a loaf of bread for Lincoln 50 years later and again the same for J.P. Morgan 50 years after that.[/FONT]

    [FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]B) The United States Federal Reserve was created in 1913. The stated purpose of the Fed, by its own definition taken from its website, is to "conduct the nation's monetary policy by influencing money and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of full employment and stable prices." Note that "stable prices" is another way of saying "stable dollar," they are two sides of the same coin (couldn’t resist the pun).[/FONT]

    [FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]C) Then after The Fed’s creation, from 1913 to 2008 (95 years), the value of the dollar, relative to the Consumer Price Index, decreased by 95%. A dollar could buy 95% fewer goods in 2008 than in 1913. Thus, if in 1913, you sat on your savings pile of $1,000,000 for 95 years, it would then be worth only $50,000 in purchasing power (it will have depreciated in value by 95%). One would now need to pay about 20X more than J.P. Morgan for one’s bread. Ask my mother how much the price of milk has increased just in the last ten years alone.[/FONT]

    [FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]In other words, the value of the dollar remained extremely stable for 150 years, then The Fed was created in order to "stabilize the value of the dollar" and the result has been a 95% devaluation of the dollar in less than 100 years following its creation. Below is a graph of this history, which I’ve marked with the year 1913 so you can see the change. The graph is also marked with the years of decoupling from the gold standard, as no examination of dollar value would be sound without such mention.[/FONT]

    SOURCE

    Take a look at the chart. Notice what happened in 1971? Take a look at the price of gold the last couple of years. What's happened to it? The price has gone through roof hasn't it? Why? The actual value of gold hasn't changed in thousands of years so why is the price going up?

    Because our American dollars are being devalued that's why. The value of gold isn't going up the value of our fiat currency is going down therefore you pay more for gold. Did I say more? I meant way more.

    When it comes to inflation, the key is not to look at the official U.S. government numbers (they are highly manipulated) or how the U.S. dollar is performing against other major currencies (because they are all being devalued as well). Instead, you can get a truer sense of what is really happening to inflation by looking at what the U.S. dollar is doing against precious metals, commodities and other hard assets.

    So are we experiencing rampant inflation right now? Well, just open up your eyes and look at these 5 charts....

    Click Here

    The dollar has lost 95% of it's purchasing power since 1913 with a big share of that devaluation happening after 1971. Now, we can sit here and squable over a few percentage points I might have been off in my "statement" but for the most part my "statement" was quite accurate and very easily provable. It's all on record and documented to the hilt.

    [FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]While we all take inflation as a "given" – as something that "just happens" in the economy – we would do well to remember that this belief is utterly incorrect. Inflation, which is the loss of value in your saved dollars, is caused by The Federal Reserve through its management of the money supply. Next time you see Ben Bernanke on the television, telling you that they "will take the necessary steps" to help the country, consider their track record so far, and their dismal failure at their stated objective – preserving the value of America’s money. SOURCE[/FONT]

    Here's where I suggest learning about how our fiat money is created and who has the monopoly on it's creation. It's as easy as watching a video.

    http://www.baptistboard.com/showthread.php?t=70412
     
    #26 poncho, Mar 2, 2011
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  7. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    You are an anti-Federal Reserve gold bug. There is nothing I can say that you will believe. However I just can't resist a couple of points.

    Basically a non-statement. Gold is gold. It's value has to be compared to something else for this statement to make sense.

    See, there you go again saying the dollar is being devalued and the reason you give is because the price of gold is increasing. Perhaps one of the reasons the price of gold is increasing is because of the plethora of TV and radio commercials hawking gold as a hedge against inflation. To wit, the price of gold is being driven up by artificial demand.

    No, there are thousands of more goods to buy, and millions more people wanting to buy stuff. That causes prices to rise.

    I got nothing more for you because you have been indoctrinated in some crazy economic theories.
     
  8. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    I wondered at what point you'd start the name calling and bail out. Bravo! You just proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that your government propaganda just can't stand up to the cold hard facts.

    Guess that kinda set ya back alittle when I easily proved my statement and demanded that you prove your statements as well. Because you can't and we both know it don't we?

    You know if I actually thought you might be a government propagandist sent here to put us upstarts in our place I would suggest you find another line of work. You aren't very good at being a propagandist at all.

    But you are alot of fun to debate. Thanks for laughs! :smilewinkgrin:
     
    #28 poncho, Mar 2, 2011
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  9. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    You didn't prove anything. You made a statement that the dollar has been devalued because gold has increased in value. You said that gold has always had the same value. You gave no facts, simply made assertions.

    I could document that since the Federal Reserve has been created recessions have been fewer, less intense, and didn't last as long as when the U.S. was on the gold standard. Check out the panic of 1873 which led to the Great Depression (later renamed Long Depression) for example.

    From 1854 to 1919 there were 16 recessions lasting an average of 22 months.
    From 1945 to 2001 there were 10 recessions lasting an average of 10 months.

    But I'm certain you would label that government propaganda, so what's the point?
     
  10. billwald

    billwald New Member

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    Moderate monetary inflation permits people who have mortgages to pay off in cheaper dollars and is no big deal because people can plan for it.

    Working class people should only be concerned about how many hours one must work to pay the bills. Until this latest depression the cost of most everything except housing and gas was decreasing.

    Anyone with smarts should have realized that a job in the city connected to a house in the country by an open wide freeway and a commute in a 3 ton truck would become unaffordable to most working people and planned accordingly.
     
  11. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    I said, "the dollar has been devalued because gold has increased in value"? Boy is my face red. I thought I said the price of gold is higher on account of the dollar being worth less because of inflation. I even provided charts!

    And you've done what exactly? Called me names. Made some accusations. Demanded proof, which I readily supplied. You are welcome, btw. You've made quite a few (as yet unfounded) statements of your own. No links, no documents, no supporting evidence of any kind. Yes I noticed the rather heavy lack there of. Seen it right off too!

    And you said this.

    If you can provide documents to back your claim then please do. I'll wait.

    You said,

    ? References? Documents? Links? How about some popcorn, for some odd reason suspense always makes me hanker for buttered popcorn.

    And it was you that said,

    I couldn't help but notice that this is a slick easy out for you. Nice work! You needn't bother to provide facts because I would put a label on them? You labeled my facts "dubious" right off the bat but I kept chugging right along anyway. Being the good natured sport that I am. C'mon if I can do it you can do it. Provide me with some facts, take a chance. Be bold.

    On a more serious note though I figure what you've been doing all this time is bluffing. I reckon if you had any good cards in your hand you'd have played em by now partner.

    Like you told me. You made a statement (several actually) now it's up to you to prove it. Make an effort at least.

    BTW, that bit about gold keeping it's value. It's true. Trust me. I was even thoughtful enough to provide a link that explains the whole thing. Can ya guess which one it is?

    Here's a hint. G. Edward . . .

    And I noticed something else too. You never denied being a government employed propagandist. Did ya? :smilewinkgrin:
     
    #31 poncho, Mar 2, 2011
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  12. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    I wasn't going to respond to you, but for the sake of other readers interested I decided to post back.

    The data is from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official government arbiter of deciding when economic cycles begin and end.

    http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
     
  13. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    Your words,

    From the article you linked,

    See the disparity?

    While we're on the subject of gold. What is gold anyway? A shiney metal that man cannot create out of nothing, a medium of exchange that cannot be easily manipulated. What is fiat currency? A medium of exchange that is created out of nothing that is easily manipulated. Simply by making more of it out of nothing.

    You see now why gold gets such a bad rap from the bankers and Wallstreet and all their so called "economists"? Creating money from nothing then loaning it to governments at interest is great racket if you so happen to be in the business of getting rich loaning air out to governments at interest. Believe me when I tell you that the private banking cartel, known as the Federal Reserve is not going to give up it's monopoly on creating money out of nothing without a fight.

    Inflation. What causes inflation? Basically expanding the supply of currency created out nothing.

    The bankers can't make more gold appear so they make more air appear. In the meantime what little value the air in your pocket has is being drained away by the creation of more air. Get it now?
     
    #33 poncho, Mar 3, 2011
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  14. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    Ooops.....
     
  15. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    No, I don't. Enlighten me. The NBER did not make their findings public until 1979, so what? They have all the data going back to the mid-1800's and apply the same criteria, which is:

    The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
     
    #35 InTheLight, Mar 3, 2011
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  16. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    Okay I believe you. So what's your point? The Federal Reserve has made life easier for us? :laugh:

    No it hasn't. It's devalued the dollar 95% since it's creation in 1913. Please explain to me how a dollar that is worth less everday has made our lives any easier.


    'Gold is money and nothing else' - JP Morgan, testifying to the Pujo Committee, 1913.

    Gold's recent breach of the symbolic US$1,000 level has elicited a predictable amount of commentary from mainstream analysts. The problem is, much of it is ill-informed. Due to the general amnesia of most market analysts, of all asset classes gold remains the most misunderstood. In order to comprehend why gold is rising and why it will continue to rise in the years ahead, we need to review some history.

    As JP Morgan pointed out early last century, gold is money, and nothing else. Grasp this simple fact and you understand gold. More to the point, gold is international money. It always has been. Over thousands of years of human economic interaction, gold (and silver) evolved as the chosen medium of exchange. These two precious metals contained all the qualities necessary to facilitate growing trade and economic interaction. The most important quality of course was man's inability to create the metals out of nothing. Alchemists tried, but to no avail. This inability to manipulate supply made the metals perfect for the role of money.

    < snip >

    Under the classical gold standard prior to World War I, gold coins circulated as money alongside banknotes, although for ease of use banknotes were preferred...as long as people had confidence that they were backed by gold. So the system acted as a natural restraint on banks issuing too much credit. If they did, gold reserves would flow from the offending bank, forcing it to curb it easy lending ways.

    In the same way the system was also a natural check on government spending. But the outbreak of World War I made such restraints impractical. Governments needed to print large quantities of paper money to finance the war effort. Instead of paying for the war through increased taxes, citizens paid via inflation, a far more subtle and insidious tax.

    While war spending led to massive and widespread currency depreciation against the international monetary standard - gold - Britain stupidly tried to return the pound to gold at the pre-war parity, which grossly overvalued its depreciated currency. It didn't do so straight away, as the economy would have collapsed. It was not until 1925 when Chancellor Winston Churchill announced the pound's return to gold. (The new gold standard was a deliberately poor imitation of the classical standard, but that's another story).

    The overvalued pound decimated British exports, especially the traditional industries of coal, iron and steel and shipbuilding. With these workforces heavily unionised, wage rates were too high and unemployment rose. This placed more pressure on the government to print their way out of trouble. Headed by Bank of England Governor Montagu Norman, Britain hoped and persuaded the US (through Norman's good friend Benjamin Strong, the boss of the New York Federal Reserve) to inflate their currency to 'catch-up' to the weakened pound.

    The US' willingness to help Britain return to a half-baked gold standard by keeping interest rates lower than they should have been led directly to the stock market boom of the late 1920's, and the subsequent depression. The downturn in world trade hit the rigid and uncompetitive British economy hard, and in 1931 Britain finally faced the reality of its disastrous monetary policy and abandoned the gold standard. The pound plummeted against gold and those countries holding pound sterling as reserves, believing it was 'as good as gold', suffered massive losses. In this way the pound relinquished its role as the world's reserve currency. SOURCE

    And still no denial!
     
    #36 poncho, Mar 3, 2011
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  17. billwald

    billwald New Member

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    Generally the price of gold paces inflation.

    If gold is such a great investment then why do the gold peddlers prefer my cash to their gold?
     
  18. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    Is that a problem? Gold holds it's value. Fiat currency does not. Stick 1400 hundred dollars in a sock tonight and an ounce of gold in another. Stash them under your pillow and see which one has more purchasing power at the end of five or ten years time.

    It's not like they're ripping you off by trading you something of real value for something that is being devalued every single day.

    NEWSFLASH!

    It's recently been revealed that the U.S. government contracted HBGary Federal for the development of software which could create multiple fake social media profiles to manipulate and sway public opinion on controversial issues by promoting propaganda. It could also be used as surveillance to find public opinions with points of view the powers-that-be didn't like. It could then potentially have their "fake" people run smear campaigns against those "real" people. As disturbing as this is, it's not really new for U.S. intelligence or private intelligence firms to do the dirty work behind closed doors. SOURCE

    Let's see if we get that denial now.
     
    #38 poncho, Mar 3, 2011
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  19. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    What's your point? In the past we used gold as a currency standard, now we don't. If you want to debate whether or not the U.S. should return to the gold standard, or never should have left it, we could go there (perhaps in another thread.)

    One paragraph in the article you posted jumped out at me:

    Over thousands of years of human economic interaction, gold (and silver) evolved as the chosen medium of exchange. These two precious metals contained all the qualities necessary to facilitate growing trade and economic interaction. The most important quality of course was man's inability to create the metals out of nothing. Alchemists tried, but to no avail. This inability to manipulate supply made the metals perfect for the role of money.


    It is not true that gold and silver supply cannot be manipulated. The very nature of gold disqualifies it for being the basis of currency nowadays.
     
  20. poncho

    poncho Well-Known Member

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    The idea is the supply of gold and silver cannot be manipulated by creating more of it out of thin air like fiat currency. To manipulate the supply of gold one needs to go out and dig up more which increases the supply. Or loading it on a rocket and sending it to space. Which would decrease the supply here on earth anyway. You really have no idea of how money is created do you?

    Notice the lack of any denial what so ever? Kinda strange isn't it?
     
    #40 poncho, Mar 3, 2011
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