IMHO the race is over.

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Ivon Denosovich, Jan 4, 2008.

  1. Ivon Denosovich

    Ivon Denosovich
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    This is a loooooong shot, I know, but I'm calling the GOP race for Giuliani and the Dem's race for Hillary with the latter winning in the general election.

    I think New Hampshire will find the newly surging McCain knocking out Romney for good (he can't stand to take another hit) and a McCain victory will aso be the death of Huckabee's so called momentum. Fred Thompson will likely drop out shortly after loosing to McCain in New Hampshire as he's broke and doesn't seem to have the energy to raise much needed funds. This basically leaves Giuliani to compete with Huckabee/McCain on a national level and stomp them both.

    On the Dems...

    Hillary, IMHO, did very well last night. She NEEDS Edwards to stay alive to split the anti-Hillary vote. Had Edwards finished third in Iowa it would have most certainly been the end of his campaign. Significant polling says that most Edwards people pick Obama as their second choice and most Obama people return the favor. If either Edwards or Obama drops now it would consolidate the anyone-but-her margin and she would be easily defeated. I think it was in her best interest to finish third if she couldn't finish first, and it may also be in her best interest to finish third in NH. She'll do better on the national scene in the bigger states: retail politicing at the local level just isn't her thing. Last night bought her much needed stalling time to continue building her own base across the country before the Edwards/Obama crowd team up.

    As to the general election...

    It just isn't a good year to have a (R) fixed to yer name. Republicans need all the help they can to maintain traction. With a Giuliani nomination the social conservatives will bolt and Hillary will benefit from both a fractured party and a war weary nation and coast into the White House.

    That's my long shot prediction for '08. And yours? :)
     
  2. PastorSBC1303

    PastorSBC1303
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    On the Republican side, I think you are underestimating McCain. I think with a win in New Hampshire, he could very easily compete with Guiliani. I wonder if Huckabee is not just a one-state wonder, and will fall off the radar soon. I would still like to see Thompson do better, but I agree it just don't seem like he has the desire or funds. Romney may very well be done if he gets beat by McCain in NH.

    My prediction right now on the Republican side is McCain.

    On the Democrat side, I am not quite sure I am following your logic on Hillary and her 3rd place finish. I do not think Edwards is going to make it much longer, which is really going to boost Obama IMO. Quite frankly, I think the wheels are falling off for Hillary as she sees that her own party wants change so bad that they think she is too connected to Wash D.C. and her husband to bring it about, and they are going to hitch their wagon to Obama with the hopes that he brings the change they want.

    Democrat prediction: Obama.

    So my ultimate battle for the White House is McCain v. Obama. I think McCain would have a strong shot at knocking Obama or even Hillary off.

    But who really knows, there is a lot left to happen and anything could take place.
     
  3. tinytim

    tinytim
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    I'm not to sure Huckabee is going to be a one state wonder..
    I don't think he will do well in New Hampshire, but the next one is South Carolina, where a lot of conservative evangelicals live..

    I think McCain will win New Hampshire, with Romney coming in second...
    the others will be mixed in in any order...

    But I do expect Huckabee to win SC.

    That would be a big blow to Romney... 3 states, and he hasn't won one.

    But this is just my opinion.. I could be way off...
     
  4. KenH

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    The field will be narrowed down but I don't see anything being decided until after the February 5th Super Duper Tuesday primaries' results are in.
     
  5. EdSutton

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    Well, let's see. You have picked a thid place finisher and a sixth place finisher to win the big prizes.

    Long shot prediction?

    Naaaawww!! :rolleyes:

    Ed
     
  6. KenH

    KenH
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    The Iowa caucuses have a spotty record at best of picking the eventual major party nominees.
     
  7. CarpentersApprentice

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    I'd agree with this match up.

    Romney spent big in Iowa, but could not beat Huckabee. Although I think, untimately, Huckabee will go the way of Pat Robertson in '88 and Pat Buchanan in '96. (A strong conservative base in Iowa that went nowhere.) McCain did have a virtual tie with Thompson, but McCain has been at it since 2000 so staying-power is on his side (although finances may not be). And Giuliani leaving Iowa and NH (and South Carolina, and others?) behind for Florida!?! Delagates are the bottom line, of course; but wins count for TV air time, which builds momentum, which translate into votes (and, thus, delagates). It's hard to believe that man is a politician.

    For a black man to come in 1st in the midwest is very big. Chinton was the presumptive nominee until Iowa; even with all that hype she came in 3rd. Edward's appeal is to the far left of the Democratic party, which will not succeed in the general election.

    But then... what do I know!

    CA
     
    #7 CarpentersApprentice, Jan 4, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 4, 2008
  8. steaver

    steaver
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    The republican party electing a pro-murder candidate? I don't see it happening. If they do, I for one will not be voting republican.

    But isn't this exciting to watch God working in this process? I can't wait to see who He raises up to take the position.

    I really like it when He makes the "wise" pundants look like silly gooses with all of their "facts". Like Bill Orielly declaring Huck wouldn't break 10%. And all of those declaring Huck can't make it because he has no money. Well, they all let out the "God factor". This is why it is exciting!

    God Bless! :thumbs:
     
  9. KenH

    KenH
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    So, steaver, are you saying that Mike Huckabee is God's candidate?
     
  10. steaver

    steaver
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    Not at all Ken.

    Does God control the people or do the people control God?

    If Ron Paul gets elected President, then Ron Paul is God's choice for the season.

    God Bless!
     
  11. poncho

    poncho
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    Only if God loves world government and the North American Union...just like Mike does.
     
    #11 poncho, Jan 6, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 6, 2008
  12. hawg_427

    hawg_427
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    This Country doesn't need Osama or Bama. LOL in the White House. I personally don't think Obama or Clinton would make it more than 6 mos in the White House.
    Some fruitcake out there would shorten their term. Just mu opinion. I dont trust anyone who won't put their hand over their heart during the pledge. No VET can put up with that.
     
  13. steaver

    steaver
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    Does God love world government and the North American Union?

    Please cite your resources for your conclusion.

    God Bless! :thumbs:
     
  14. PastorSBC1303

    PastorSBC1303
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    Steaver, please do not get poncho started :smilewinkgrin:
     
  15. KenH

    KenH
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    I don't think that we need the Alabama Crimson Tide in the White House, either. :laugh:

    On a serious note, I would prefer Obama or Clinton in the White House compared to any of the Republicans except for Paul and Thompson.

    In fact the more I read and hear from Obama the more I like him. I especially liked his foreign policy essay in Foreign Affairs last year.
     
  16. StefanM

    StefanM
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    I think it will probably be McCain/Huckabee vs. Obama/Edwards
     
  17. carpro

    carpro
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    Strange thinking.

    If you can't get a limited government conservative, you want an unlimited government ultra liberal. :confused:
     
  18. KenH

    KenH
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    I think that Obama would pick a governor with foreign policy experience - Bill Richardson.
     
  19. KenH

    KenH
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    Nor really. I prefer an unlimited government Democrat to an unlimited government Republican. At least the Democrat won't be pretending to be something other than what he/she is when it comes to government.

    Plus, in all seriousness, I really was impressed with Obama's Foreign Affairs essay. I would certainly prefer his foreign policy direction to that of the Republicans other than Ron Paul and Fred Thompson.
     
    #19 KenH, Jan 6, 2008
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2008
  20. StefanM

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    I think that would be Hillary's pick, but I'm not sure Obama would go with Richardson.
     

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