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Discussion in 'Politics' started by Lewis, Jun 30, 2016.
White House Watch
White House Watch: Trump 43%, Clinton 39%
I take all Rasmussen survey results with a large grain of salt. They are well known for being quite biased and have been very wrong in the past. Time will tell.
After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model.
We examine past accuracy to assign the polling firm a rating from 1 to 4, which is then used to weigh the amount of influence the firm has on averages and statistically weaken the ability of one outlier poll to dramatically mislead us on the status of a race. A rating of 4, which is held by both Rasmussen Reports and Public Polling Policy (PPP), is the worst rating we assign to a polling firm.
I have read articles describing why ALL of the pollsters are off. In a nutshell because most people don't answer their phones (landlines) anymore if they don't recognize the caller. Telemarketers ruined the whole polling model.
But that doesn't stop anyone from quoting their favorite poll does it, CTB
Thanks for the link, but it's useless for my purposes. If you want to get the demographics and details of the poll you must register and pay a monthly subscription fee.
Well, I like the "likely voters" part but why the 9 point swing? I can't think of anything that would have caused that.
Still, looking at the MoE, this means the vote could range from 46-36 Trump to 42-40 Clinton but just last week it was a range between 47-36 Clinton to 42- 41 Trump so in context, it does makes some sense. Then you have to factor in that there's a 5% chance either one of these polls are way off the mark. The popular vote is very, very close IMO.
That is my guess also.
The thing about the Rasmussen poll is that it is compared to Rasmussen's own poll from last week, so we know the methodology hasn't changed.
Sorry about that.
Not faulting you at all.
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