Let's Predict the GOP Super Tuesday Primary

Discussion in 'Politics' started by InTheLight, Mar 1, 2016.

  1. InTheLight

    InTheLight
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    Let's predict the outcomes of the Super Tuesday GOP primaries. I don't want to to the Democrats because I think Hillary will win most of them, Sanders should win Vermont (home state) and Oklahoma.

    I'm not going to guess at the percentages in all cases, just those that I think might be close. This is important because all of these states have delegates awarded proportionately.

    Rubio WIns

    Minnesota
    Rubio 31%
    Cruz 29%
    Trump 27%
    Kasich 7%
    Carson 6%

    Virginia (could go to Trump by a point or two)
    Rubio 33%,
    Trump 32%
    Cruz 18%
    Kasich 8%
    Carson 7%


    Cruz wins

    Alaska
    Texas
    Arkansas
    Tennessee (Trump could win by a point or two)


    Trump wins

    Alabama
    Georgia
    Massachusetts
    Oklahoma (but Cruz is close)
    Vermont

    Even if Trump wins 8 or 9 states, the delegate count is what matters. I expect Trump will win about 200-210 delegates out of the 595 available on Super Tuesday.
     
  2. Rippon

    Rippon
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    I'd say that Trump will get around 410 delegates at the very least.
     
  3. InTheLight

    InTheLight
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    How do you figure? That would mean he is polling at 69%.

    What states do you see him winning?

    Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo using Tapatalk.
     
  4. InTheLight

    InTheLight
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    Trump picked up 234 delegates.
    Cruz picked up 206 delegates
    Rubio picked up 90 delegates
    Kasich 19
    Carson 3
     
  5. InTheLight

    InTheLight
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    Actual results
    Rubio 37%
    Cruz 29%
    Trump 21%
    Carson 7%
    Kasich 6%

    Actual--it did go to Trump by a point or two.
    Trump 34%,
    Rubio 32%
    Cruz 17%
    Kasich 9%
    Carson 6%


    Actual, Cruz wins:
    Alaska
    Oklahoma
    Texas


    Actual, Trump wins:
    Alabama
    Arkansas
    Georgia
    Massachusetts
    Tennessee
    Vermont
    Virginia

    Trump got 234.
     
  6. Salty

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    Overall, his predictions were not that far off
     

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