Let's Predict the Wisconsin GOP Primary

Discussion in 'Politics' started by InTheLight, Apr 5, 2016.

  1. InTheLight

    InTheLight
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    Another in an ongoing series of predictions.

    Cruz will win the Wisconsin primary.

    This is a hybrid delegate primary, a modified "winner take all". There are a total of 42 delegates to be won--24 delegates via congressional districts, 15 at-large delegates, and 3 RNC (Republican National Committee) state delegates.

    The 15 at-large delegates are awarded to the candidate that gets the most votes statewide. This is a winner take all scenario.

    The 3 RNC delegates are also awarded to the overall statewide winner. (At least I think so....maybe Rolfe can clarify.)

    The remaining 24 delegates are comprised of 3 delegates per US congressional district. (There are 8 congressional districts in Wisconsin.) These delegates are awarded to the candidate that gets the most votes in each congressional district. Win the district and the candidate wins all three delegates from that district.

    Here's what I'm figuring:

    Cruz: 33 delegates. 15 at large, 3 RNC, 15 from congressional districts. (wins 5 districts.) Milwaukee and suburbs.

    Trump: 9 delegates. Wins 3 congressional districts. Probably the "redneck" areas in northern and northwest WI.

    Kasich: 0 delegates. Wins 0 congressional districts. Comes close to winning in the area including Madison.

    I keep changing my prediction from Cruz 33, Kasich 0 to Cruz 30, Kasich 3. But I figure in the land of Scott Walker, Cruz will reign.

    Your turn.
     
  2. InTheLight

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    ...area including the capital of Wisconsin which is spelled M-a-d-i-s-o-n.

    Santha: Please stop the auto-insertion of emoji's and increase the time limit for editing to 15 minutes or more.
     
  3. 777

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    Light, hope you're not forgetting that today is an open primary - that ought to give Trump some edge there.

    I have looked through and tried to analyze multiple polls there to no real avail - the samples all look flawed. For example, one poll was only for "likely GOP voters" but that's only a section of the voters there today and supposedly Trump brings in all these new voters that polls like that can't pick up.

    Over on the Democrat side, it's easier - I'll guess Sanders gets 53%. The GOP hmmmmmmmmm . . . I'll try Trump by 42%, Cruz at 40% and John at 18%. Who knows, we will see soon.
     
  4. InTheLight

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    Considered that but since the Dems have got a tight primary battle I figured there wouldn't be many crossovers voting for Trump.



    Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo using Tapatalk.
     
  5. InTheLight

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    Just realized I gave my delegate predictions and not popular vote. Here is my popular vote prediction:

    Cruz 44%
    Trump 32%
    Kasich 19%
     
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  6. 777

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    ^ I like that, although I don't agree with you - there isn't that much interest in the Democratic primary because of Hillary's huge delegate lead but I bet a lot of the students in Madison will crawl over broken glass to vote for their dead-in-the-water socialist candidate.

    Haven't read much about the turnout yet but I think it will be a lot closer.
     
  7. InTheLight

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    LOL on your comment about the students. It's true.

    While I predict 44% for Cruz no poll taken has shown anything more than 43% and the RCP average is 39.2% for Cruz. I just think Cruz is going to crush it in Wisconsin.
     
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  8. 777

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    Well, then you thought correctly:

    LOL, I always knew I didn't know what I was talking about earlier today and at least I was right about that. Ted and Bernie killed it, as you said they would.
     

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