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Looks Like Trump Will Lose Solid GOP State of Utah

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by InTheLight, Oct 23, 2016.

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  1. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    [​IMG]

    Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo
     
    #1 InTheLight, Oct 23, 2016
  2. Salty

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    #2 Salty, Oct 23, 2016
  3. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    The polls that Trump leads in are a week to two weeks old. Two weeks ago is ancient history in the final month leading up to the election, but they figure into the RCP average. The Emerson poll showing McMullin leading is the most recent.

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    #3 InTheLight, Oct 23, 2016
  4. Salty

    Salty 20,000 Posts Club
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    If you look at the link - the dates for all 6 polls overlap
    The oldest one - from 10 Oct - is the one with the Tie.

    and by Wed, your poll will be old news.
     
    #4 Salty, Oct 23, 2016
  5. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, I have problems with this McMuffin scenario. I think the voters of Utah would have to write him in, and they would have to decide to vote for him just because he is another Mormon. McMullin is on record for saying he wants to spoil the state for Hillary. Hillary voters in Utah should all vote for McMullin and just go ahead and ruin that state's reputation.
     
    #5 777, Oct 24, 2016
  6. Salty

    Salty 20,000 Posts Club
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    #6 Salty, Oct 24, 2016
  7. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, by Wednesday his lead will increase.

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    #7 InTheLight, Oct 24, 2016
  8. Salty

    Salty 20,000 Posts Club
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    Maybe
    in that ONE poll - lets see what the RCP AVERAGE will be.
     
    #8 Salty, Oct 24, 2016
  9. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, can't wait. Since RCP polls are the average of the last 5 or 6 most recent polls, as soon as the data from the CBS News/YouGov poll showing Trump up +17 drops off the average, McMullin will have a bigger lead. Just watch.

    McMullin-Poll-Oct16.jpg

    McMullin is also making inroads in Idaho and Wyoming. He could be the first 3rd party candidate since Wallace in 1968 to win a state's electoral college votes. Then all the people that pooh-pooh third party candidates will have to admit they could be viable if enough people would think outside the Rep/Dem box.
     
    #9 InTheLight, Oct 24, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2016
  10. Salty

    Salty 20,000 Posts Club
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    not the average of just one poll - but several different organizations which poll.

    In 1968, Wallace received 45 Electoral votes

    The three States you mentioned have a total of 11 EC - not quite the success that Wallace had.
     
    #10 Salty, Oct 24, 2016
  11. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Yes, that's what I said. Once that CBS News/YouGov is no longer a part of the averages, McMullin will be a clear leader, even in the RCP poll average.
     
    #11 InTheLight, Oct 24, 2016
  12. Salty

    Salty 20,000 Posts Club
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    Then CBS will come out with a new updated poll!!!
     
    #12 Salty, Oct 24, 2016
  13. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    So you believe this RCP poll is accurate that shows Trump is leading in Utah.

    What about the ones in Arizona, where they show Trump losing? Is that rigged?

    trump poll az.JPG
     
    #13 InTheLight, Oct 24, 2016
  14. Salty

    Salty 20,000 Posts Club
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    You want me to say yes - dont you?

    Actually, I do have a good point to make - but you probably wouldn't consider it.

    PS - it was in your link
     
    #14 Salty, Oct 24, 2016
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