March 22 Projection

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Rippon, Mar 22, 2016.

  1. Rippon

    Rippon
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    I think Trump will get at least 70 delegates. Cruz will pick up 30 at most.
     
  2. The American Dream

    The American Dream
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    That seems very reasonable. I hope its closer to 100 for Trump. He is not liked in Utah.
     
  3. InTheLight

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    Trump will win Arizona. That's 58 delegates and is winner take all.

    Cruz will win Utah. If Cruz gets 50% or more he wins ALL the delegates. That's 40 delegates. I'm predicting Cruz will cross the 50% popular vote threshold, so I say he gets all 40 delegates. Utah also has a minimum threshold. If a candidate does not get at least 15% of the popular vote they get NO delegates at all. Trump won't meet the 15% threshold, so Trump gets nothing in Utah.

    Trump 58
    Cruz 40
     
  4. Rippon

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    I had to go to work shortly after making my post. I did not factor in Idaho. I don't know what to say about that state.

    However, between American Samoa and Arizona he should get in the delegate range of the high 60s.

    Cruz is certainly going to do well in Utah. Trump is polling poorly there. It remains to be seen if he gets any delegates there.

    Bottom line: Trump will do better than Cruz in the amount of delegates he picks up.
     
  5. InTheLight

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    I do. Idaho had their GOP primary on March 8th. Cruz won and got 20 delegates. Trump got 12.

    Doubt it. There are only 9 delegates in American Somoa. The territory is heavily Mormon, so I expect Cruz to take most of them.


    Duh. There are 107 delegates up for grabs tonight and Trump will get at least 58 from Arizona.


    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk
     
  6. InTheLight

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    Hey guys, how did your predictions work out?
     
  7. Rippon

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    Trump got one and so did Cruz. So much for your "heavily Mormon" remark. It didn't help Cruz.
    Duh backatcha. It was either 58 or nothing. There is no such thing "at least" in the situation. Trump was expected to win there for quite some time.

    I projected that Trump would get in the high 60s. He got 59. Not a bad guess on my part.

    In 2012 by March 24th Mitt had 616 delegates with 20 states.
    By March 22nd of 2016 Trump has (per Wikipedia) 755 delegates and 21 states.
     
  8. InTheLight

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    Only three of the nine America Somoa delegates are bound. The other will be allocated at the convention.

    I'm beginning to see why Van is so frustrated with having conversations with you.

    Please learn to read. I did say:
    Trump will win Arizona. That's 58 delegates and is winner take all.

    You said:
    Trump will do better than Cruz in the amount of delegates he picks up.

    I then said:
    There are 107 delegates up for grabs tonight and Trump will get at least 58 from Arizona.
    Meaning he might possibly get some delegates from Utah and America Somoa.

    First you said Trump would get at least 70 delegates and Cruz no more than 30. It's right there in the opening post of this thread. Then you backed off a bit, to "high sixties". In reality, Trump got in the high fifties.

    Meanwhile I said:

    Trump 58
    Cruz 40

    and the actual numbers were:

    Trump 59
    Cruz 41


    Apples and pineapples. The primary schedule and states are different this time around than it was in 2012. Trump is not going to get the majority of delegates needed to get the nomination on the first ballot at the convention.
     

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