My prediction for the election:

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Salty, Aug 31, 2008.

?

Salty, Your predictions are:

Poll closed Oct 30, 2008.
  1. just about right

    4 vote(s)
    21.1%
  2. McCain will get a higher %

    1 vote(s)
    5.3%
  3. McCain will get a lower %

    5 vote(s)
    26.3%
  4. Obama will get a higher %

    9 vote(s)
    47.4%
  5. Obama will get a lower %

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. 3rd parties will get a higher %

    4 vote(s)
    21.1%
  7. 3rd parties will get a lower %

    1 vote(s)
    5.3%
  8. Electoral vote is just about right

    2 vote(s)
    10.5%
  9. McCain will get many more electoral votes

    3 vote(s)
    15.8%
  10. Obama will get many more electroal votes

    8 vote(s)
    42.1%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Salty

    Salty
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    Here is my prediction for the election:
    Popular ...................Electoral
    McCain 49.8................353
    Obama 45.2................185
    Nader 2.3
    Barr 1.1
    Baldwin 0.4
    other 1.2

    Total 100.0...............538



    Track the electoral vote:
     
    #1 Salty, Aug 31, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 31, 2008
  2. NaasPreacher (C4K)

    NaasPreacher (C4K)
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    Better recheck your total electoral votes possible :)
     
  3. Salty

    Salty
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    Just a typo, thanks for pointing out my first mistake of hte year. :type:
     
  4. NaasPreacher (C4K)

    NaasPreacher (C4K)
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    Thats okay - I know mine is coming any day now :)
     
  5. KenH

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    As of 8/31/08 I predict:

    Obama - 54%
    McCain- 44%
    Others - 2%

    I don't have an electoral count at this point, but I expect Obama to win it quite comfortably.

    I reserve the right to revise this based on what happens over the next two months. :)
     
  6. Salty

    Salty
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    No you dont!! :laugh: :laugh:

    Note, the poll closes on Oct 30th
     
  7. Revmitchell

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    LOL which is a consistant philosophy of yours.
     
  8. LeBuick

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    Despite who wins, I know the presidential race will be closer than that. I don't see a landslide by either party.
     
  9. givengrace

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    Oh How cute he's DREAMING AGAIN!!:sleeping_2:
     
  10. givengrace

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    Not baced on the BB Voting Poll.
    Check it out.

    Way WAy COOL!!
     
  11. LeBuick

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    Obama is winning... How did that happen?
     
  12. dragonfly

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    Since according to Real Clear Politics, Obama is still leading in a majority of polls; and since I believe that Obama will win the debates, I think Obama will win comfortably.
     
  13. Salty

    Salty
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    This is one of my pet peeves, IMHO no one ever wins or looses a debate. - The debate is too inform the electorate where they stand on the issues

    But what we need to do possibly is to start a new thread.
     
  14. KenH

    KenH
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    You do know that poll is nowhere near representative of the American electorate, right?
     
  15. KenH

    KenH
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    "If you don't have a dream,
    If you don't have a dream,
    How you gonna have a dream come true?"

    - from my favorite musical "South Pacific" :)
     
  16. NaasPreacher (C4K)

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    I can not even guess percentages and electoral votes, but I do think McCain will win at the end of the day.

    There is a huge, now mostly forgotten voting block; the white, working class male. Obama has proven he cannot win that vote (PA convinced me of that). Without that block he cannot win.

    On a lighter note, the choice of Gov Palin, who no one can deny is 'easy on the eyes,' only strengthened McCain's support with that voting block :) .
     
  17. LeBuick

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    True, he couldn't win that block against Hillary, another democrat. This is also why he is gunning for NC and a few other normally Republican states. You are so true about Palin. If she shows good in the debates McCain is a shew in...
     
  18. NaasPreacher (C4K)

    NaasPreacher (C4K)
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    The Deep South is firmly McCain's to win or lose. Obama's choice of a classic liberal assured that.

    There is another large voting block that I suspect will go with McCain. The average woman voter will want Palin in place as vice-president, not simply because she is a woman, but because finally someone who can understand. Gov Palin knows what it is like to raise kids win a working class home. She is totally outside the typical, tired old politician who does not understand the realities of day to day living. The video of her presenting sports on a local new programme only add to that appeal.

    She played high school basketball
    She was president of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes
    She was Miss "Hometown'
    She joined the PTA because she cared about her kid's education
    She ran for town council to make a difference
    She has a 'handicapped' child whom she chose to give birth even though she could have killed him

    Some may see this as 'hokie,' but the average mom is going to be drawn by these as well.


    You can politic all you want, but to my mind the ir REAL realpolitik, not in the pejorative sense, but the literal meaning that this is politics that works.
     
    #18 NaasPreacher (C4K), Sep 1, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 1, 2008
  19. LeBuick

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    Two ways to see this though, the women who will vote for her were going to vote for McCain even without her. These are the conservative "sisterhood" as LE would put it.

    There are two types of Democratic women, Hillary supporters and Obama supporters. I don't think Obama supporters will move since they had a chance to go to Hillary and didn't. One will have to admit, if there was ever a woman who could get the woman vote it is Hillary so if they weren't with her then they won't be budging.

    That leaves us with the Hillary supporting women. Some plan to write in a vote for Hillary. Some vowed not to vote. Some will stay with the democratic party. Some are mad at the democratic party and have vowed to vote for McCain. They would do this even without Palin. Some are insulted with McCain thinking he is patronizing in believing they wanted Hillary exclusively because she is a woman.

    You could be right, there could be another set of fence sitters but it won't be that large of a demographic after the pie is cut so much.
     
  20. NaasPreacher (C4K)

    NaasPreacher (C4K)
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    Part of my evidence is anecdotal I will be honest about that.

    None of my women friends were committed to McCain before this. My wife and two daughters-in-law were not even going to bother voting. Now all three want absentee ballots. My women friends in the States were the same way. Now they are all McCain/Palin supporters.

    You are correct, I don't know how big that demographic is overall, but for me it is HUGE :) . All of the demographic group "Christian American women and mothers who know Roger" have switched from 'uncommitted' to pro-McCain :).
     

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