Netanyahu Loses Lead in Polls Ahead of Israeli Election

Discussion in 'Politics' started by kyredneck, Mar 12, 2015.

  1. kyredneck

    kyredneck
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    "(JERUSALEM) -- With just five days to go until Israelis cast their votes in the country's general election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bump in the polls has completely evaporated.

    Instead of leading or running neck and neck with his left-wing rival Isaac Herzog, the prime minister is now trailing behind by three points.

    Both left- and right-leaning media polls show Netanyahu's Likud party has taken a serious hit, dropping down to 21 seats while Herzog's Zionist Union party is coming in at 24.

    Just as significant, the smaller center-left parties -- the ones that could block Netanyahu from forming a government even if his Likud party loses -- are also showing gains in the polls.

    In yet another blow, Herzog has picked up the endorsement of Israel's former president, Shimon Peres.

    When Israelis head to the polls to elect a new government next Tuesday, they won't choose a candidate, as is practice in the U.S. Instead, they'll choose a party. The leader of the party that wins is often the one who becomes prime minister after the president asks him or her to form a government.

    In order for Netanyahu to win a fourth term in office, his Likud party needs to come out on top."

    Doesn't appear his speech to congress is going to save him.
     
  2. Crabtownboy

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    Could well be his speech hurt him at home. Isn't that ironic?
     
  3. kyredneck

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    Actually I think he got a 'bump' up after the speech but that's gone now. I don't understand everything I know about their coalition form of government but even if Herzog wins Bibi still has 1 more party over him which could result in a combination government between Labor and Likud.

    Israel elections: rising panic in Likud ranks as opposition gains ground

    "...But with six days to go before the election, a key question is whether Herzog can defeat Netanyahu when it comes to the post-election horse-trading over forming a government.


    In the tortured electoral mathematics of Israel’s coalition-building, Netanyahu still has a theoretical marginal advantage with six potential parties he can negotiate with to form a government, against Herzog’s five.

    Among the factors that will come into play is whether some of the smallest parties – including the leftwing Meretz – win enough votes to meet the electoral threshold for representation in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament.

    And if the election turns out as close as the polls currently suggest, President Reuven Rivlin could insist on negotiations for a national unity government embracing both Likud and Zionist Union...."
     
  4. kyredneck

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    "At a campaign meeting on Tuesday in Be’er Sheva, in the Negev desert, Herzog told a gathering of the faithful, the curious and a handful of supporters of other parties that he represented hope for those who felt excluded within Israel’s dysfunctional economy and for those who sought the possibility of peace. He and Livni promised to end Israel’s increasing isolation in the international community."
     
    #4 kyredneck, Mar 12, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 12, 2015
  5. 777

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    Well, I find their system weird as well, but this article helped me to understand it much better:

    http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/1.646418

    so it won't be Bibi v. Herzog exactly, but more like their respective political parties that will almost certainly have to form a coalition with the other minor parties over there, win or lose.

    I think Bibi can prevail, and this lead has been swapping ever since these elections were announced but if his party loses, it is probably because of the perception that Bibi is a little too obsessed with a nuclear Iran at the expense of their domestic policy.
     
  6. Earth Wind and Fire

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    Promises, promises......what's his plan to make it happen?
     
  7. OldRegular

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    Likud will win! The Israeli's are not into suicide!
     
  8. kyredneck

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    Thanx for the link Trip.

    It seems to me that this coalition form of government would result in a whole lot of gridlock, which may not be a bad thing.
     
  9. kyredneck

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    I don't know, haven't researched it yet, but likely will, especially if Likud outright loses. (well actually there'll be bookoo speculation in the media about it)
     
  10. kyredneck

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    "...It turns out that when you go to the capital of your most important ally and slap its president in the face, your own people don’t necessarily conclude that you’re a hero...."

    Israel’s Sore Loser
     
  11. Revmitchell

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    Sure, with OBama's cronies investing in the opposition election and one of his former campaign managers is helping him out as well. Talk about Americans interfering with a notional election of another country. Doesn't get any more evil.
     
  12. kyredneck

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  13. kyredneck

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    Seems a lot of Israelis don't understand everything they know about it either:

    Netanyahu’s ‘gevalt’ gamble

    "One of the Likud leader’s foremost electoral assets was his aura of invincibility. Herzog dented it. Has the PM’s own last-minute ‘save me’ plea shattered it?...

    ....Netanyahu told The Times of Israel, “The public really has chosen: They really want us. They really want me and Likud to lead. But… (there are voters who)… think they have a choice to vote for those parties and still get me as prime minister. But in fact they won’t. The only way they’ll get me as prime minister is if Likud gets sufficient votes. That’s something that’s not been understood. They think that they have two votes, two ballots. But they don’t. They have one. And those that want me as prime minister have to vote for my party, Likud.”....

    ....the gevalt gamble — the self-declared warning that he might lose, accompanied by the assertion that his departure endangers the country, and underpinned by his dark talk of “almost Soviet-style” plots by forces international and domestic to topple him — pays off or bankrupts him.

    Two weeks before the elections, Herzog’s Zionist Union was averaging about one seat ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud. Polls in the last week generally gave Zionist Union a three-to-four seat lead. If that momentum is maintained, and if the gap were to widen much further, Netanyahu would be finished....
     
  14. carpro

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    Who really cares? Besides Obama, that is.

    They'll elect who they want and things will pretty much remain the same.

    All Israelis, regardless of their political leanings, know deep down that the Iranians want to annihilate them. Possibly They'll reach out with a new prime minister, but they'll be rejected and threatened and go back to the hawks. It's been going on for decades.
     
    #14 carpro, Mar 15, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 15, 2015
  15. poncho

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    Tens of thousands of Israelis attended a rally in Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square on Saturday evening to call for the prime minster, Binyamin Netanyahu, to be replaced in elections later this month.

    Organised under the banner, “Israel wants change” and dubbed an “anti-Netanyahu” event, the rally was headlined by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, who told the crowd Israel is facing the worst leadership crisis in its history.

    “We have a leader who fights only one campaign — the campaign for his own political survival … I am not a politician and not a public figure, and I came here this evening without personal aspirations, not looking for a position and without a grudge or bitterness,” he said. “To those who say we don’t have any alternative, as somebody who worked directly with three prime ministers: there is a better alternative,” Dagan said. He and former Israeli general Amiram Levine, who also addressed the rally, both used the word “apartheid” to describe the direction Israel is headed, 972 Magazine reported.

    Israel police estimated around 40,000 attended the rally, while the organisers claimed the number was closer to 80,000.

    Continue . . . http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/08/israeli-mass-rally-calls-for-replacement-of-binyamin-netanyahu
     
  16. kyredneck

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    I do. I'd love to see the 'America should be our pit bull' warmonger bite the dust. He's all for the U.S. accomplishing 'regime change' for Israel, but then, so are millions of Christian Zionists in this country and probably the majority on this board.
     
    #16 kyredneck, Mar 15, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 15, 2015
  17. carpro

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    Obviously. So you believe it's OK for Obama to meddle in an Israeli election, but object to Netanyahu making a speech to congress. It's their election. Who they support is who they support. No matter who the prime minister is, Obama will treat them like enemies of the islamic world he idolizes and they will stll look out for their own interests.

    I know you hate Jews, like Obama does, and are apparently willing to get in bed with a radical muslim state that wants to annihilate the entire country of Israel and every Jew that lives there.. and anywhere else in the world.

    The depth of your hate is surprising for anyone but a muslim , but especially for a Christian.
     
  18. kyredneck

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    Crock of bullcrap.

    That's why I refer to you as smearpro. That's all you got in response, smear and slander. The fact is I hate no one, I don't hate Netanyahu, I just want him to go away, I try to leave emotion out and be logical and objective about all this. I love America, I hate no one.

    Prime example of neocon fear mongering that draws so many unsuspecting in.

    Smear and slander on, smearpro, do what you do best. There's not an ounce of truth in what you promote. Time will bear me out, I already know that.
     
    #18 kyredneck, Mar 15, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 15, 2015
  19. carpro

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    "Time" has already done so for what you are.
     
  20. kyredneck

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    Lol, if that's you think I'll start referring to you as 'shallow smearpro', or 'shallowpro'.

    Time hasn't even begun to bear these things out. Netanyahu's meddling has not be appreciated neither in this country nor Israel.
     
    #20 kyredneck, Mar 15, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 15, 2015

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