Let's make predictions on how we think the impasse in Washington will be resolved. Not how we want to see it turn out, but how we think it will turn out. There were a couple of developments recently that gave me an idea of how I think it will play out. 1. Boehner told Republican lawmakers that he is determined to prevent a federal default and would pass a measure to raise the debt ceiling through a combination of Republican and Democratic votes. It is being suggested that he would go so far as to do it with a majority of Dem votes, not Rep votes. So there is his signal that he is going to cave in. 2. "We're not going to be disrespected," Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) told The Washington Examiner. "We have to get something out of this. And I don't know what that even is." 3. Obama's continued hard line insistence that he won't negotiate the ACA against the government shutdown. (Actually it's kind of refreshing to see a politician state a position and hold to it, even if I disagree with him.) 4. The mood in Washington is pivoting to the debt ceiling debate. So what do we have here? A signal from Boehner that he will not allow the US to default on its debts, the need for Republicans to save face and get some concession, any concession from Obama, and Obama's continued hard line on no compromise on ObamaCare. Therefore, the government will remain shutdown until the debt ceiling is resolved. Kind of a two for one deal. I predict this will happen sometime after October 14th. I think it will take a big loss on Wall Street on that Monday--to go with the more than 2% the market has already lost in the past week or so--to give a sense of urgency to the problem. Republicans will go to Obama with hat in hand and beg for a concession on ObamaCare in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Obama and Reid will reluctantly give it to them, something minor like removing exemptions from ObamaCare for Congress and their staff. Or maybe even a delay in the personal mandate for a year so it dovetails with the employer mandate. Then Republicans can say they stood up to the President and got part of ObamaCare repealed whilst Obama can say he avoided a debt default and withstood the Republicans for over two weeks. What do you think will happen?