Predictions

Discussion in 'News / Current Events' started by Rippon, Apr 20, 2016.

  1. Rippon

    Rippon
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    Trump will take five states on April 26 and have more than 1,000 delegates.
    By May 24th he'll tally around 1,147.
    On June 7th he'll rake in about 290 more. So he will go approximately 200 beyond what is required.

    As I have been saying all along -- [Ted] doesn't stand a chance. His numbers will never be enough.
    Teddy and [John] K. are in the same boat.

    The only question is when will Cruz give his concession speech.
     
    #1 Rippon, Apr 20, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 21, 2016
  2. Deacon

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    Probably right Rippon

    I will be asked to vote for a person to run the country that I wouldn't trust to babysit my kids.

    I vacillate between thinking I might be able to vote for Trump and wondering if I could live with myself if I did. I'm so double-minded!

    I might be able to vote for Trump if...
    ...I consider it a vote against Hiliary
    ...I could find a hint of humility in him
    ...he had a heart for God rather than a heart after his own desires
    ...I could believe a single word he said.
    ...I though he knew something about foreign policy
    ...I thought his only motivation was something other than self and money​
    Rob
     
  3. Rob_BW

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    I predict:

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Jkdbuck76

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    It's all [rigged]. Or that's what my Bern[ie] [supporter] friend says.

    Sent from my SM-T350 using Tapatalk
     
    #4 Jkdbuck76, Apr 20, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 21, 2016
  5. InTheLight

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    Ha ha ha ha!

    You're just like Trump--rushing headlong with bluster without understanding the delegate selection process!

    On April 26th Trump will win four states--Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, and Rhode Island. No one will know who wins Pennsylvania's 71 delegates. Yes, you read that right. That's because Trump, Kasich, and Cruz will not be listed on Pennsylvania's primary ballot. Instead, the GOP delegates names will be listed and primary voters are supposed to vote for delegates. Furthermore, there is no indication on the ballot which of these delegates support which candidate. Even after the election the candidates will try to woo the elected delegates over to their side. This is not Trump's forte.

    My predictions:
    After April 26th Trump will have about 940-950 delegates.
    After May 24th he will have around 1,000 delegates.
    On June 7th he'll get another 140-145 or so.

    This will leave him short of the necessary 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination on the first ballot.

    I've got all this data in a spreadsheet with all the rules of each individual state spelled out in detail. I've been fairly accurate so far. Believe it or not, it gets easier to predict going forward. The toughest states to predict are Pennsylvania (by far), then Washington, then Oregon. Trump will do well in the popular vote in Oregon and Washington but because of their rules he won't completely triumph there.
     
    #5 InTheLight, Apr 21, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 21, 2016
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  6. Salty

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    it will be close
     
  7. InTheLight

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    Trump will come within 90-100 delegates short of clinching on the first ballot. Then all bets are off.
     
  8. HankD

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    I am no big fan of Trump but I believe he has it right - this race is rigged by the RNC, that's why Rubio has been allowed to lurk in the shadows and keep his delegates, Cruz is staying the course with his large count along with Kasich siphoning off a few delegates here and there in a final showdown that will leave no one with the 1237 magic number.

    The RNC has kept this from being the TWO MAN race that it really is (Trump vs. Cruz) because they want to dilute the delegate count in order to give Trump the proverbial kick in the proverbial rump off the RNC presidential platform.

    Kasich will probably be the establishment's fair haired boy who incidentally doesn't have a chance in (snip) to beat queen Hillary.

    My opinion of course - repeat - I am no big fan of Trump but why oh why choose to risk a civil war within the GOP and possibly commit hari-kari (Oops, is that a politically incorrect phrase?).

    HankD
     
  9. Squire Robertsson

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    As I've said before, Mr. Trump didn't do the proper due diligence in regards to the rules and laws of the various primaries. This from a man whose New Jersey golf courses (according to today's [4/21] Wall Street Journal) get agricultural tax breaks for their goat herds, haying operations and wood lots.

    Because he didn't do then proper due diligence, he finds himself in a bind of his own making.
     
  10. InTheLight

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    Why is this particular race rigged? Virtually the same rules are in effect as in the previous elections of the past 50 years, certainly the rule requiring a majority of delegates hasn't changed for 150 years.

    Nobody's delegates are not released until after the first round of voting at the national convention. It's the same rules as previous elections.



    Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
     
  11. Squire Robertsson

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    Since the rules Mr. Trump is complaining about have been in place for at least one previous presidential cycle if not more than one, I'm putting little credence into his remarks. The RNC is reaping the benefits of the unintended consequences of rules put into place long before Mr. Trump married Marla.
     
  12. HankD

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    not the laws but the Rubio, Cruz and Kasich delegates siphon-off debacle.


    3 guesses who they WON"T go to, the first two guesses don't count.

    Give a warm welcome to our queen Hillary.

    HankD
     
  13. Squire Robertsson

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    Only because Mr. Trump won't do a deal. And he wouldn't have to make deals with all that many delegates to surprise folks by taking the second ballot or under the radar rounding up un-bound delegates for a first ballot win.
     
  14. carpro

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    Lincoln would never have been president if the candidate with a plurality of delegates had to be the winner on the first ballot. It's been this way forever. It's just Trump's whining egged on by a media that tries , in any way possible, to sow dissension amongst republicans to help democrats.
     
  15. HankD

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    Look I won't vote for Trump even if he is nominated. He's weak on abortion, I just don't trust him with his checkered past and present tense demeanor. Demeaning our POW's, bad-mouthing women and making fun of cripples, he's disgusting IMO.

    But it's obvious to me that the RNC game is rigged against him, not by the laws already in affect but by allowing 3 contestants and one non-competing delegate holder (Rubio) to engage in order to dilute the final determination factors.

    Kasich admitted to that on the Hannity Show - that he wanted to take delegates away from Trump to force a second vote. I heard him say it, at least Kasich is an honest man and I would vote for him.

    But IMO, the RNC took a wrong path when they realized too late that Trump didn't fit their expectations of failure.

    Kasich is not well known so IMO he will not win the presidency.

    HankD
     
    #15 HankD, Apr 21, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2016
  16. carpro

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    Again, it's been going on forever. A candidate that has no chance stays in the race to make themselves relevant at the convention. Doesn't work very often, but they keep trying.
     
  17. HankD

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    Ya I know that carpro, only thing is that Trump can win the presidency (but without my vote) Kasich or Cruz cannot (IMO).

    HankD
     
  18. carpro

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    Who knows? Hillary may yet be indicted and pardoned by Obama, but with a reputation so stained, all of them could beat her. Personally, though, I don't believe the politicized Obama justice department will ever take the case.

    Here's something to ponder though...in head to head debates, Hillary will eat Trump alive. He's not articulate and depends on sound bites to survive. Cruz will eat Hillary alive. No question.

    Kasich is a RINO wimp and will never be the candidate.
     
  19. HankD

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    It's been a strange campaign that s for sure.

    HankD
     
  20. Salty

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    and Bernie is honest when he says that he wants to tax the rich to pay the college costs of everyone who wants to go.

    He might be honest - but he certainly will not get my vote.

    I do agree with several of the things that have been said about Trump

    Will be an interesting election this year.
     

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