Real Clear Politics: 300

Do you have a source for the 300 electoral votes for Bush?

 

Here's one that uses over 900 polls in its database, heavily weighting the most recent ones:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It's going to be very close. Ohio and Florida will decide it, I think. Bush has to win both.

Last poll in Florida:
Zogby Oct. 31 Kerry 48 Bush 47

Last poll in Ohio:
Zogby Oct. 31 Kerry 48 Bush 46

Zogby figures a lot of those many newly-registered voters will vote, and they favor Kerry.

If he's wrong, Bush wins Ohio and Florida, and he gets about 280 electoral votes.

If not, Kerry wins.

Or so I think. And that's assuming that Jeb is out of tricks.

 

This guy claims to have averaged recent polls in Florida but a Quinnipiac poll from 10/27 thru 10/31 shows Bush with an 8 point lead. How he ends up with a 2 point Kerry advantage with that in the average is beyond my math skills He also doesn't use the Mason Dixon poll that came out yesterday in Florida showing Bush up by 4.

He's just another biased votecounter (living somewhere in Europe, I might add).

Here is the historical graph

 

Election Projection is far better. ElectionProjection always includes every poll.

http://electionprojection.com/

Electoral Votes: Bush 286, Kerry 252
Popular Vote: Bush 50.1%, Kerry 48.1%

 

Here is how the 300 would be achieved:

 

Lookin Good W!!!!!!!!

 

I can't beleive people are still hanging onto this. Remember when all the newspapers went in to recount? Wait, we didn't hear much about that because Bush won no matter how many times they counted and recounted.

Does someone know for sure Jeb played tricks, or is this just a bearing of false witness against him?

 

Forget that, it's old history. This year, Bush tried another scheme that would have selectively disinfranchised legal black voters, and allowed Hispanic felons to vote (they tend to vote GOP)

Actually, the real secret was in refusing to let newly-registered blacks vote, because "your name isn't on the list", and things of that sort.

Yep. He abandoned the second scheme this year, because of an uproar when the media discovered it.

But now we learn that the state GOP has a hit list of black voters to be challenged. The intent seems to be to make it a hassle to vote in black areas, and to keep the turnout low as possible.

Seems to be a national strategy for the GOP:

"A Michigan Republican state senator, John Pappageorge, this summer said the GOP had to "suppress the Detroit vote." Detroit is more than 80 percent black."
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/192182_blacks24.html

Pappageorge is co-chair of the "Bush-Cheney '04 Michigan Veterans Leadership Team."

 

Obviously, we can't trust Zogby or that website above in the future.