Real Clear Politics: 300

Discussion in 'Free-For-All Archives' started by Joseph_Botwinick, Nov 1, 2004.

  1. Joseph_Botwinick

    Joseph_Botwinick
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    As it stands right now, at 10:06 CST, Bush has 300 electoral votes. All Bush supporters who have not done so yet need to get to the polls tommorow and make sure this becomes reality. I am feeling a lot better about this now.

    Joseph Botwinick
     
  2. TheBear

    TheBear
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    Do you have a source for the 300 electoral votes for Bush?
     
  3. The Galatian

    The Galatian
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    Here's one that uses over 900 polls in its database, heavily weighting the most recent ones:

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/

    It's going to be very close. Ohio and Florida will decide it, I think. Bush has to win both.

    Last poll in Florida:
    Zogby Oct. 31 Kerry 48 Bush 47

    Last poll in Ohio:
    Zogby Oct. 31 Kerry 48 Bush 46

    Zogby figures a lot of those many newly-registered voters will vote, and they favor Kerry.

    If he's wrong, Bush wins Ohio and Florida, and he gets about 280 electoral votes.

    If not, Kerry wins.

    Or so I think. And that's assuming that Jeb is out of tricks.
     
  4. bb_baptist

    bb_baptist
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    This guy claims to have averaged recent polls in Florida but a Quinnipiac poll from 10/27 thru 10/31 shows Bush with an 8 point lead. How he ends up with a 2 point Kerry advantage with that in the average is beyond my math skills [​IMG] He also doesn't use the Mason Dixon poll that came out yesterday in Florida showing Bush up by 4.

    He's just another biased votecounter (living somewhere in Europe, I might add).

    Here is the historical graph
    [​IMG]
     
  5. bb_baptist

    bb_baptist
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    Election Projection is far better. ElectionProjection always includes every poll.

    http://electionprojection.com/

    Electoral Votes: Bush 286, Kerry 252
    Popular Vote: Bush 50.1%, Kerry 48.1%
     
  6. bb_baptist

    bb_baptist
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    Here is how the 300 would be achieved:

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Enoch

    Enoch
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    Lookin Good W!!!!!!!! [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  8. OrovilleTim

    OrovilleTim
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    I can't beleive people are still hanging onto this. Remember when all the newspapers went in to recount? Wait, we didn't hear much about that because Bush won no matter how many times they counted and recounted.

    Does someone know for sure Jeb played tricks, or is this just a bearing of false witness against him?
     
  9. Joseph_Botwinick

    Joseph_Botwinick
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    The way I got the 300 was that I went to real clear politics and clicked on each state individually. They show several different polls for each state. Those states which showed the majority of the polls going to Bush, I put in the Bush column. I then added that to Bush's electoral votes. Several of the states are narrow wins, but nonetheless, the majority of polls in that state still show a Bush win. That is how I got 300.

    Joseph Botwinick
     
  10. The Galatian

    The Galatian
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    Forget that, it's old history. This year, Bush tried another scheme that would have selectively disinfranchised legal black voters, and allowed Hispanic felons to vote (they tend to vote GOP)

    Actually, the real secret was in refusing to let newly-registered blacks vote, because "your name isn't on the list", and things of that sort.

    Yep. He abandoned the second scheme this year, because of an uproar when the media discovered it.

    But now we learn that the state GOP has a hit list of black voters to be challenged. The intent seems to be to make it a hassle to vote in black areas, and to keep the turnout low as possible.

    Seems to be a national strategy for the GOP:

    "A Michigan Republican state senator, John Pappageorge, this summer said the GOP had to "suppress the Detroit vote." Detroit is more than 80 percent black."
    http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/192182_blacks24.html

    Pappageorge is co-chair of the "Bush-Cheney '04 Michigan Veterans Leadership Team."
     
  11. bb_baptist

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    Obviously, we can't trust Zogby or that website above in the future.
     

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