Real Scary stuff! SARS

Discussion in '2003 Archive' started by Ps104_33, Apr 25, 2003.

  1. Ps104_33

    Ps104_33
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    To The Point Bulletin on SARS
    Jack Wheeler
    April 25, 2003


    It is important to understand that that the actual death rate for SARS is far higher than the currently reported rate. The death rate publicly given in press reports is a percentage of the reported cases, now running at a little over 2%. The figure to focus on however is the death rate as a percentage of the recovered cases. This figure is much higher, over 10%.

    The reason for the discrepancy is that the disease is doubling now about every two weeks, so many people who have contracted it have not yet had time to die from it. The most frightening statistic of all is that the great pandemic of Spanish Flu in 1918, which killed somewhere between 20 and 40 million people worldwide, had a death rate of 2.5%. SARS may be four times as deadly as the Spanish Flu.

    If you have any reason to believe you are among people who may have SARS, not only should you wear a face mask, but you must carry a packet of alcohol-based disinfectant handi-wipes at all times. Exercise extreme discipline regarding not touching your face.

    Most people touch their face hundreds of times a day. The SARS virus cannot penetrate unbroken skin. It is transferred through mucous membranes. You touch someone's hand, a doorknob, a toilet handle, and then transfer the virus to your face and thus inside your mouth or eyes.

    Avoid touching anything touched by others, and never touch your face before you disinfect your hands with the handi-wipes.

    SARS has the capacity to give the world economy a devastating hit. China's economy may be shattered. Hong Kong may be a ghost town. With any luck, and with vastly more sophisticated health and medical procedures than in 1918, we may not see scores of millions die. But the threat is real. Very, very real.
     
  2. Jim1999

    Jim1999
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    Sars is actually on a decline in Ontario. ALL the reported cases can be directly linked to the source, either by family, direct connection through friendship or care workers.

    All the deaths thus far have involved the elderly or young people with existing medical problems which exacerbates the treatment; all upper respiratory infections.

    In fact, the mortality rate for bronchial infections, pneumonia and such is much higher in a normal year.


    Cheers,

    Jim
     
  3. jonmagee

    jonmagee
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    Just been reading this elsewhere and found the thread closed! (thats why I pm'd you Jim.)

    Our media is reporting that international agencies have concerns for Ontario( cannot remember what agency(s) that may be)

    How do Canadians feel about the difference of opinion?

    yours, Jon.
     
  4. Baptist Vine

    Baptist Vine
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    Can you explain why one would want to compare the number of deaths against the number of recovered cases? Were the percentages reported for past flu epidemics calculated that way?

    Lets say there are 100 total cases, and out of that, there are 2 deaths. That gives a mortality rate exactly equal to 2%.

    So 2 die, and 98 recover.

    Comparing 2 out of 100 gives the mortality rate.

    But what do you call the rate derived from comparing 2 out of 98, which is about 2.04%.
     
  5. Bro. Curtis

    Bro. Curtis
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    Compare this "epidemic" with the amount of people in the good ole' U.S. of A. who die from influenza each year. You will be very suprised.
     

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