Recovery is on the Way

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Ruiz, Oct 12, 2011.

  1. Ruiz

    Ruiz
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    Today, Congress passed the Free Trade agreement with Colombia, South Korea, and Panama. I believe this is one of the greatest things we could do to encourage an economic recovery (but I wished we could have included Brazil, maybe next time).

    When Clinton passed NAFTA, there were people who noted some businesses left to go to Mexico, but the economic data showed that two major things happened, manufacturing output increased while decreasing jobs (there were several factors in this). That made goods less expensive, created more higher paying jobs, and and ultimately caused the boom in our country in the 90's. That was the biggest single economic bill enacted by Clinton, and it worked as all economists predicted.

    This bill is not that big, but it can be huge. If we can reign in debt, balance the budget, hold the line on taxes, cut regulations and form an alliance with Brazil, we will grow our economy like we did in the 90's. If we scare businesses away, we may be hurt. My fear is that the Dem's or Rep's will do something stupid like input money to create another bubble, try to stop natural corrections, or begin punishing winners while choosing which losers should win.

    Yet, this is the best economic news I have heard in years.
     
  2. Robert Snow

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    You think NAFTA, which caused the loss of untold manufacturing jobs here in the United States, is a good thing?
     
  3. sag38

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    Robert, I think it's called "being sarcastic."
     
  4. Ruiz

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    Robert,

    You are listening to the Unions and not people like me who study economics. NAFTA was the greatest job stimulus in my lifetime. The Unions tell a half truth, but economists seem rather clear that this helped.

    This is something I did study when getting my MBA. I was so overwhelmed by the statistics that I don't see how any honest assessment of NAFTA could say otherwise. Yes, jobs in manufacturing declined. However, manufacturing output went out of the roof. Why? There are many reason, but my assessment and that of many economists was that we were going to lose a large percentage of manufacturing anyway (perhaps most of that which was lost). In reality, NAFTA saved jobs. Yet, the output increased because of NAFTA thus creating jobs. When you look at the models that were created on the positive impact on NAFTA, they were accurate and correct.

    I would love to debate with you on the economics of NAFTA, but from an economic perspective, it created more jobs, higher paying jobs, and we manufacturered more as a result. Only the Unions with their half truth campaign thinks otherwise.

    I am glad NAFTA saved all the jobs it saved and provided our economy a boom. If it was not for NAFTA, we would have lost some major sectors in manufacturing.
     
  5. Ruiz

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    SAG,

    No, it is not being sarcastic. I am telling the truth. Let me give you some background. WHen getting my MBA, I researched trade agreements and their impact. I am extremely convinced that while NAFTA hurt Unions, it helped manufacturing and it created more jobs. Most of the boom in the 1990's is directly related to NAFTA, I can think of no other single policy that had as much impact.

    While I concede that manufacturing jobs were lost, these jobs were predicted to be lost because of automation, computers, and many other factors. The models seem to show that fewer jobs were lost than would have without NAFTA. As well, manufacturing output boomed and more jobs overall were created. If NAFTA was bad for manufacturing in America, we would have seen the opposite or no growth at all. The boom was from good governmental policies.

    I cannot prove the next statement, but I think it is accurate to say that some manufacturing sectors are still alive and in America because of NAFTA.

    This is not sarcasm, this is by someone who worked and studied these issues. In fact, I recommended that our #1 priority in expanding in the Americas should be a trade agreement with Brazil. I still hold to that belief. There are political concerns on both sides of this discussion with Brazil, but if we could open up this market, we will do more to create jobs than Obama's jobs bill and it will cost the Federal Government nothing to implement.
     
  6. Ruiz

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    BTW, another piece of evidence that our job loss was not due to NAFTA, there were only 150,000 workers in the first 10 years whose job loss was self attributed to their company moving due to NAFTA. These people applied for help from the government (a fund was created to help displaced workers due to NAFTA). This figure is proven to be an accurate number of the number of displaced workers (Source: Government Accounting Office).

    When you look at what it created. Civilian employment created was around 8 million jobs.

    So, if I asked you if you would allow 150,000 workers to lose their job in order to create 8 million jobs, I hope you would take that offer. NAFTA was a success in creating jobs.
     
  7. InTheLight

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    This is a good thing and probably one of the few things that Congress can do that will create jobs in a hurry.

    That's a lot to ask out of Congress.

    Ah, the best? Well, it's up there, yeah.
     
  8. InTheLight

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    There was this little thing called the home computer/internet/technology boom. That was the true engine that fueled the economy in the 1990's. That and the increase in productivity that computers brought to the workplace. I think you are giving way too much credit to NAFTA.
     
  9. Ruiz

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    Yes, the boom in the computer industry was helpful, and helped by NAFTA. Manufacturing was able to reduce costs by importing goods for less money. The technology sector was able to take advantage of the lower costs in goods to pass it along to the consumer. We would have seen a higher rate of inflation in the 90's and costs in computers and other electronics would not have reduced as fast. Thus, the technology boom was given capital through NAFTA.

    Most sectors that boomed during that era were impacted by low inflation, lower costs, and easier access to emerging markets.

    I think we would still have had a boom in technology, but I think the boom was bigger because of NAFTA.
     
  10. InTheLight

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  11. Ruiz

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  12. freeatlast

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    Yes the deal is good, but it will not put us on the way without what you also mentioned.
    "reign in debt, balance the budget, hold the line on taxes, cut regulations"

    The main thing is the debt and spending. Without those two things being dealt with nothing can overcome our problems and we will still fall and become like a third world country. Unless congress stops spending more then we take in there is no amount of extra business that can be of any help.
     
  13. billwald

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    There are no large American companies. Say the Korean people learn to like Fords. Is it more likely that Ford will continue to manufacture them in the US or for Ford to set up shop in Korea?

    The only Ford I want is assembled in Turkey, engine made in Spain. I wish it was made in Korea.
     

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