Shutdown?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by SolaSaint, Sep 29, 2013.

  1. SolaSaint

    SolaSaint
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,824
    Likes Received:
    25
    OK all you political junkies, what is the odds the Govt shuts down on Tuesday? And if you think it will, how long? Thanks and God bless.
     
  2. questdriven

    questdriven
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2013
    Messages:
    1,028
    Likes Received:
    33
    [​IMG]


    I'm not a political junkie, though, so I probably have no place in this thread....
     
  3. thisnumbersdisconnected

    thisnumbersdisconnected
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2013
    Messages:
    8,448
    Likes Received:
    0
    Given that ...

    1. Social security checks still go out
    2. Postal services continue
    3. The military continues to function
    4. FBI, ATF, DEA, Homeland Security, CIA, various civilian military investigation units, etc., will remain functional
    5. The Department of State will remain open
    6. Half of Health and Human Service will continue to operate
    7. The FDA and the financial governing bodies would remain open
    ... I think it's quite likely the shutdown will occur, and it may set a record for duration. While the Democrat/socialist/neocommunists will be screaming bloody murder that it is the end of the world, virtually nothing is going to happen.

    Let it shut down. We might discover we can do without most functions of government, because you know what? We can.
     
  4. InTheLight

    InTheLight
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2010
    Messages:
    16,214
    Likes Received:
    611
    Government shuts down tomorrow, 4:1 odds. Stock market starts slow, steady decline. Loses perhaps 5% over the next two weeks. Finally, with the debt ceiling looming the week of October 14th, the market will see a loss of perhaps another 3%-4% those first two days. Irate baby boomers watching their 401k's shrink will start bombarding their representatives with complaints. This will be a wake up call and the lazy bickering slobs in Washington will come up with a flaccid kick the can down the road agreement raising the debt ceiling, ending the shutdown, and perhaps pass one of the Republican demands, either the year long delay in ObamaCare, repeal of the medical devices tax, or some other element. This will happen on October 16th or 17th.

    Then these idiots will slap each other on the back, pundits will fawn over them, and Obama will look like he had a spine. Then next election the Democrats will regain control of the House. Watch out people because this is when Obama will cement his legacy of "fundamentally changing the country". Get ready for a carbon tax, more environmental regulations, Wall Street regulations, defunding of the military, signing and passing of UN treaties, gun control, etc.
     
    #4 InTheLight, Sep 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 30, 2013
  5. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2006
    Messages:
    38,308
    Likes Received:
    784
    Any so called shut down is of no real consequence
     
  6. InTheLight

    InTheLight
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2010
    Messages:
    16,214
    Likes Received:
    611
    Take a look at your 401k balance and the worth of your other investments. Let me know if there is "no real consequence" after a week or two of government shutdown.
     
  7. thisnumbersdisconnected

    thisnumbersdisconnected
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2013
    Messages:
    8,448
    Likes Received:
    0
    After a week of panic, the markets will start rising, as investors realize nothing happened. From your own newspapers up there ...


    Dream on, ITL, dream on.
     
    #7 thisnumbersdisconnected, Sep 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 30, 2013
  8. InTheLight

    InTheLight
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2010
    Messages:
    16,214
    Likes Received:
    611
    Agree that a 2.5% decline in the market would be considered a dip (although somewhat of an artificial one) and not a huge deal. But where are the endpoints? When do you start counting--the day of the shutdown or do you include the days leading up to the shutdown as well? For example, the stock market is down about 0.8% so far today in anticipation of the shutdown, and it lost about 1.7% last week, largely on fears of a government shutdown. So that's 2.5% lost already, mostly attributable to the shutdown even though it hasn't officially begun as yet.

    The problem will be if the government is still shut down as the debt ceiling deadline approaches. Then we would be looking at a decline of 5% or more. That will be a problem.

    And yes, it is a buying opportunity, and yes, I am ready.
     
    #8 InTheLight, Sep 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 30, 2013
  9. thisnumbersdisconnected

    thisnumbersdisconnected
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2013
    Messages:
    8,448
    Likes Received:
    0
    I believe you will find upon investigation that the losses represent the total dropoff, from initial pre-shutdown panic to the eventual funding the government. So the 2.5% we've seen so far is just about the total loss we will see overall. A week or even less into a shutdown, the markets will be rallying.

    Not really. If the borrowing limit is reached, it means the government can't expand, and essential programs will still carry on. It will actually be good for business.
     
  10. Salty

    Salty
    Expand Collapse
    20,000 Posts Club
    Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2003
    Messages:
    22,113
    Likes Received:
    219
    Will the IRS have to shut down?
     
  11. thisnumbersdisconnected

    thisnumbersdisconnected
    Expand Collapse
    New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2013
    Messages:
    8,448
    Likes Received:
    0
    It will accept returns, amended returns, and quarterly self-employment tax payments. It will suspend all audit activities.


     
  12. SolaSaint

    SolaSaint
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,824
    Likes Received:
    25
    Unless your a federal worker and your paycheck stops.
     
  13. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2006
    Messages:
    38,308
    Likes Received:
    784
    You are right that is a consequence. Which is the tax payers benefit greatly.
     
  14. SolaSaint

    SolaSaint
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,824
    Likes Received:
    25
    I'm a federal worker and will probably be furloughed tomorrow. I'm OK with this if the GOP stands up for what is right and stops Obamacare in any way. If they do this for a week or month, then cave in, that will make no difference. I'm willing to lose a little pay for this, I wish Congress would do the same.
     
  15. FollowTheWay

    FollowTheWay
    Expand Collapse
    Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2013
    Messages:
    467
    Likes Received:
    4
    America, love it or leave it!
     
  16. saturneptune

    saturneptune
    Expand Collapse
    Banned

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2006
    Messages:
    13,977
    Likes Received:
    0
    I am a federal retiree and fully prepared for it. The checks will be there October 1 but not November 1. I work and my wife works, so we will be fine. Contrary to the information above, if this lasts long enough, Social Security will stop, then hear the furor start.
     
  17. questdriven

    questdriven
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2013
    Messages:
    1,028
    Likes Received:
    33
    I'm not sure if you meant this seriously or not. If not, then by all means ignore this reply.

    But I can love my country without approving of everything it does or how it is run. Those who wish to see it change want change likely because they care.
    Leaving would entail being that much closer to the "other side" getting their way, as my voice would no longer be heard in the voting booths and in letters to senators and governors.

    Seriously, if everyone had this mentality of mindless patriotism--that whatever America does is great because America--nothing would get accomplished. It is the freedom of speech and opinion and the opportunity to make your voice heard that made/makes America great.
     
    #17 questdriven, Sep 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 30, 2013
  18. SolaSaint

    SolaSaint
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,824
    Likes Received:
    25
    Who is gonna cave in? any bets?
     
  19. FollowTheWay

    FollowTheWay
    Expand Collapse
    Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2013
    Messages:
    467
    Likes Received:
    4
    Nothing much will happen to the markets as long as the Fed continues to manipulate them. The only reason the markets have gone up for the last 2 years is fed manipulation.
     
  20. SolaSaint

    SolaSaint
    Expand Collapse
    Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,824
    Likes Received:
    25
    hey are shutting it down. Now, how long for the GOP to cave in? Does anyone think Obama will cave?
     

Share This Page

Loading...