Super Tuesday 2

I think the story that Obama has reversed course about his former statements regarding his advisor meeting with Canadian officials about NAFTA will hurt him in Ohio. I don't think it will hurt him much in Texas.

Some people I work with who are Obama supporters are now saying even they are getting a little tired of the Obamathon. I wonder if there is some truth to Hillary's "Obama fatigue" claims.

Watch the 11th hour attacks from the Clinton machine.

 

I do not see Hillary dropping out anytime soon. She will fight tooth and nail to the convention.

 

I think Hillary Clinton will win Ohio. Clinton has a 6.4 point lead over Obama. Only one major poll, Zogby, shows Obama ahead. The rest show Clinton ahead anywhere from 4 to 12 points.

The polls in Texas are simply too close to call. Clinton has a less than one point lead over Obama. However most polls show Obama leading Hillary by 1 to 3 points. Two polls have Clinton ahead 5 to 6 points. So this one is up in the air and we may not know the final results until Wednesday.

I think Clinton will win Rhode Island. Clinton has a 9.7 point lead over Obama. All major polls show Clinton with a lead of 5 to 15 points over Obama.

It looks like Obama will win Vermont. Polls show him ahead 14 to 24 points.

So Obama could have a very bad night on Tuesday. There is a chance that he only wins Vermont and maybe pulls a small victory out of Texas. Hillary however will win Ohio, Rhode Island, and maybe even Texas (by a bit).

I could be wrong, but I think this race is far from over. Unless the polls are wrong, which they could be, Hillary will continue to be in this race.

Well those are Martin's political predictions. We will see what happens. Just to make my predictions clear:

Texas: Too close to call.
Ohio: Hillary
Vermont: Obama
Rhode Island: Hillary

 

Regardless of who wins the popular vote here is how I think the delegate count will go:

Texas - close in the popular vote; however, due to the way delegates are awarded Senator Obama will be the clear victor in delegates won in Texas.

Ohio - close in the popular vote and little difference in the delegates.

Vermont - Senator Obama wins big in popular vote and delegates.

Rhode Island - Senator Clinton wins by a few percentage points and wins a few more delegates.

Overall impact - Senator Obama leads in the number of delegates by a larger amount than he began the day with.

 

Texas-- Obama
Ohio-- Clinton
Vermont-- Obama
RI-- Clinton

Clinton will stay in. Huckabee drops out.

 

But the big question, if Hillary stays in:

What about Michigan and Florida?

(that thar's the elephant in the room)


EDIT: Whoops! Guess it's a donkey in the room. Wrong party. :laugh:

 

From Sinless to politics.. rbell you get around!!! )

 

Go Hillary!!!!:love2:

 

I voted for Huckabee in Ohio today.

Ohio will end up being very close between Hillary and Obama. I think Gov. Ted Strickland's endorsement of Hillary will probably make the difference in the end. However, Obama has been scaring the Ohio workforce on the evils of NAFTA and how Bill and Hillary supported NAFTA. We'll see if those scare tactics work for Obama. I can't see either winning by more than a few % points.

 

And at the convention. Let's not forget that she is very powerful, well-connected and dirty (ask Vince Foster).
I'm just saying that even if she's 'out' by the convention, she still will not be out. And, when all is said and done, if she is not on the Presidential ticket, she'll be a thorn in our side somewhere else.

 

Some were stating this morning that late deciders were going for Clinton. We'll see.

 

I prefer Senator Obama; however, if Senator Clinton is the Democratic Party nominee I will certainly support her vs. Senator McCain in the general election.

 

And so the longshot Huckabee and the Ron Paul Revolution are over.

 

I won't be voting for Sen. Obama, but I respect him. I think he has some good ideas in with some bad ones.

Sen. Clinton scares me. I do not trust her at all. IMO, she's the Democratic Mitt Romney.

I will probably vote for Sen. McCain, even though I do disagree with him on some issues.

However, I will say this:

If the Democrats lose this election (which I now think they will), they will solidify themselves as the most inept major political party in American history.

 

Stefan, what makes you think they will now lose?

 

If Obama wins Texas now, I will have hit this prediction 100%!!!

 

This extended primary process. I think Clinton will drag this out to the convention. The GOP will have all spring and all summer to blast Obama and Clinton with a united front. The Democrats will be fractured, and the last minute attempts at unity will not have time to develop.

Obama seems to be losing momentum. Clinton's virulent attacks against Obama are starting to pay off. This is bad for the Democrats for a few reasons.

1) If Obama still wins the nomination, these attacks are going to come up in the general election in a very damaging way.

2) If Clinton pulls off the upset, a lot of Obama supporters will feel miffed.

3) If Clinton wins by this method, the GOP will be able to cast her as a vicious, opportunistic politician. She can't argue experience vs. McCain, either.

 

If the economy is in the toilet by autumn(and I think it will be, unfortunately) I don't see any way for Senator McCain to win, especially since he is expected to fully tie himself to President Bush's policies at the White House tomorrow. Tying oneself to a failed president will not help his general election chances.

However, you are correct - if the Democrats blow it and subject these United States to a third George W. Bush term via Senator McCain, they should be ashamed of themselves.

 

Never underestimate the ability of the Democratic party to bungle a "sure thing."

(Cf. 2000, 2004)