Technology predictions?

Discussion in 'Computers & Website Forum' started by Don, Jan 11, 2012.

  1. Don

    Don
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    What are your technology predictions for the next year? 5 years? 25 years?

    Based on the following:
    According to CNNMoney.com, "Smartphone companies and carriers are desperate for network capacity, but they're hard-pressed to find it."
    [​IMG]Meanwhile, the FCC projects that data traffic will jump an astounding 612% per cell site this year and another 925% in 2013...
    [​IMG]To make matters worse, Reuters reports that the iPhone 4S consumes TWICE as much data as its predecessor and THREE TIMES more than the iPhone 3G.
    [​IMG]This is especially troubling when you consider a leading Apple analyst just upped his 2012 iPhone sales estimates by nearly 20%...
    [​IMG]And predicts that another 125 MILLION iPhones will be sold this year alone.

    I predict the following: Spectrum management is going to become an extremely hot topic over the next year. At the same time, there's going to be a push from consumers to provide more over-the-air access.

    1-year prediction: Someone's going to make a LOT of money by figuring out how to better manage the existing spectrum.

    5-year predictions: People are going to rely more and more on TVs and entertainment devices that can connect to their home networks, not directly to cable. Watch for the first "network TV station" where "network" doesn't mean television, but internet network. We actually already have them, but they currently offer video as an "option" instead of "always on" like what we see broadcast over cable TV. This will also drive a change in internet management, as well as advertising. Necessarily, people will be looking for easier ways to find such websites (having become accustomed to cable company menus that allow you to search and select programs that are currently being shown), driving a change to domain name management. Watch for internet start-ups that try to address this.

    If/when the spectrum issue is addressed and the telco companies are able to take advantage of it, your phone will increasingly take on duties as a connection/social/entertainment device. Watch for innovative ideas about how to use your phone as your "all-in-one" device.

    End result: In ten years, I predict cable TV will be starting its decline, with AT&T and Verizon taking on more of the cable TV market. In fact, it occurs to me to mention that those companies need to start thinking about re-marketing themselves as your connection to all the things in your life: Your family, your business, your money, your entertainment, etc.

    All hinging upon the spectrum management problem, of course...but that's been addressed several times over the last 15 years, and scientists keep coming up with ways to better utilize the spectrum we have. I'm optimistic that new innovations in spectrum management will continue to "cut our cord ties" with cables and phone lines.
     
  2. Don

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    So AT&T already has a merger with Comcast and TCI; as of August 2011, the FCC was being pressured to loosen restrictions on cable and telephone company mergers.

    So I'm little behind on my predictions...but the spectrum management problem still exists.
     
  3. exscentric

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    Probably the answer to more spectrum is to eliminate over air tv as they have already started by forcing the digital shift. Then the poor that can't afford cable can just do without or be subsidized by the feds.
     
  4. Don

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  5. glfredrick

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    Cable TV is already dead, they just don't know it yet.

    With the advent of web-ready televisons and the ROKU box the only thing cable will be good for is a modem, and even that will go away as soon as we can get wireless up to a decent speed, which should be well before 10 years.

    We will soon take for granted immediate access to T1 or better level access to the web everywhere without wires.

    Next will come the second part of this revolution -- the loss of most books, at least in school contexts. Students will get a tablet computer of some type, or they will be built into their desks, and their entire library will be at their fingertips via the cloud.

    Virtual "everything" from doctors to teachers, to industry leaders, to government will pervate our culture.

    We've only just begun to scratch the surface as far as the new media is concerned.
     

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