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Discussion in 'Sports' started by Alcott, Nov 1, 2006.
Michigan at Ohio State, November 18. Who wins by how much?
Michigan will do what Michigan always does - fold under pressure. Ohio State will be playing for the national championship.
Who wins is hard to say. When teams are closely matched, breaks and mistakes make the difference. However, Michigan is probably the better team all around.
The hype here is undeserved though. Neither team has played a really great schedule. The Big 10 overall is the weakest I've seen it in years.
Teams that were thought to be tough (Penn St, Iowa, Mich St, etc) have shown themselves to be mediocre at best.
OSU's victory over Texas was good but certainly not great. The Horns are no where near where they've been and likewise play in a weak conference this year.
Michigan's victory over ND was good but again ND isn't as good as the early season hype.
In real terms, I don't believe that either has played a schedule on par with any of the SEC or Pac10 elites.
As I sit here today, I think the Bucks win by 6. I see the Bucks winning by a little more, though. I still wonder if Michigan is really that good. I also wonder when OSU defense figures out it's not supposed to be playing this good
It is hard to say you have a "problem" with OSU but....
Who have they played? They've played good teams but no real serious contenders. The computers even reflect this. They're #1 in on 1/6. Michigan has the rest of them though they haven't really played a strong schedule either.
OSU's best win was a not-as-good-as-before Texas team early in the season while they were still breaking in a freshman QB.
Mich and OSU are both very good teams but if they were in the SEC or Pac10 they'd probably be another couple of one loss teams looking for a break.
It would not surprise me in the least to see OSU's defense exposed in the NC game by WVU... but I don't think they get by Michigan.
Oh and Michigan has a potential trap game coming up in Illinois. They aren't the joke they used to be.
I live in Louisville, and the talk is that the winner of OSU v Mich will play tomorrow night's winnder of WVU v UofL for the national championship. Personally, I'd like to see OSU and UofM play 2x instead of seeing the winner of that game play the winner of the WVUvUofL game. Although, in some respects, I'd like to see either of the Big 10 teams play either of the Big East tteams, just to show the people here that the big east is a terrible conference, and neither WVU nor U of L are actually top notch schools.
I think WVU is competitive with just about anyone. I still don't like the notion that a weak conference can put them into the BCS with almost an automatic bid but that's what the agreement is at this point.
I will admit that the BE is slightly more of a threat to WVU's run than I thought it would be... but only slightly.
OSU has done their share of folding under pressure when coming into the UM game undefeated in the past also.
I want UM to win out of total dislike for OSU (even though my wife is a buckeye)...but they need to play a lot better to pull it out.
Illinois isn't that much better than what they used to be, are they?
But not under Tressell. He's owned Michigan. Have to give him credit.
Yes... but that is a relative statement. They used to be the Big 10 equivalent of Miss St or Duke.
Although I am not a fan of either team, I have always [since I could understand about college football] tended to favor Michigan in this one. But regardless, I also think this is a game in which the traditions and the rivalry itself can take precedence over the relative strengths of each team any given season. Therefore, a few interesting facts lead me to favor Michigan this year by 4-7 points, as I voted in the poll.
1) Although Ohio St. has won the last 2 against Michigan, and 4 of the last 5, they have not beaten Michigan 3 consecutive times since a 4-game winning streak 1960-1963 [there was, however, a 4-game streak '72-'75 in which they won 3 and tied the other].
2) I know at least 3 occasions-- and there may be more-- where Ohio St. had a clear ride to the national championship, or at least a shot at it in a bowl game, and Michigan ruined their chance. These were 1969, 1995, and 1996, and probably by the tie in 1973; however, it was probably only in '73 that Michigan had the NC shot itself by beating Ohio St.
3) Defense controls this game. Only 10 times in the last 50 years has a team scored more than 30 points in this game (and only in one game did both score 30+). Michigan has the better defense, while Ohio St. has the better offense, but being a defensive game gives Michigan a bit of an edge.
4) When there are streaks in this series (and we can call 2 games a 'streak' in this), they are more likely broken in Columbus than in Ann Arbor. In looking at records, when Ohio St.has won 2 or more in a row the last 9 times, in 6 of those the 'streak' was broken in Columbus.
You think Louisville over West Virginia might turn out to be a big game for the BCS, as well??
If by "big" you mean it may determine one of the National Championship contenders,... possibly, but not likely. Louisville revs this up as such a big win that it's difficult to know how they may play against Rutgers in 9 days. Last year, they lost 2 regular season games after huge wins the week before.
I believe I did say "might". Likewise, the OSU/ Michigan winner will likely knock the other out of the running, and a follow-up upset of the winner might well knock both out of the top two. Let Rutgers knock off Louisville, and then lose to W Va. and Fla get kayoed as well, and there is definitely a possible scenario of a repeat of last year's Rose Bowl once again, believe it or not, and I personally don't think either Texas or USC is close to what they were a year ago. I realize the odds of this are small, but you never know. And I'm pretty sure every one of the 'contenders' has an opponent remaining that is a bit more than 'chopped liver'.
Texas doesn't. They've played only OSU. They've beaten no one. They shouldn't be in the top 10 based on what they've done and who they've done it against. Both the Big 12 and Big 10 are in overall down years... which unfortunately favors the few teams at the top.
If there is a one loss team left in the SEC and a one loss team goes to the NC then it should be that game. The SEC is by far the best conference this year. Their head to head with the second best conference this year <gulp>, the Pac10, was a domination except for USC/Ark.
The polls do strange things so it wouldn't be a surprise at all if the OSU/Mich loser gets a rematch if say UF loses and UT goes on to win the SEC CG with one loss.
The "bigness" of the OSU/Mich game is tainted by the fact that it is like the old OU/Neb match up in the Big 8. Both teams played on real challenge each year then went to the Orange Bowl with an opportunity to win the championship.
At this point, Louisville has played about as good of a schedule as either one of them. IMO, WVU is better than ND or Texas this year.