The closeness of Victory

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Major B, Sep 20, 2008.

  1. Major B

    Major B
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    Instead of arguing what we argue, let's all get our wizard hats on and do some predicting.

    Barring some last minute surprise (the capture of Bin Ladin, or the current rumor the Joe Biden is going to claim illness and bow to Hillary just before the VP debate) the Election is going to be very close. Because of the built in non-proportional Electoral College advantage the Republicans hold (all those small states that get two senators and one Rep=3EVs, even if they don't have enough people for one rep) it would be very possible for McCain to take the presidency and be as much as two or three points behind in the popular vote.

    However, the possibility exists that narrow victories in swing states could give Obama the White House with a minority of Popular Votes--Had Kerry closed the gap in Ohio in 2004, he would have won with a PV minority.

    It is also possible for an EV tie to occur. At that point, all of us who teach History and Social Studies will have our phones ring off the hook, and now it gets very interesting. In this scenario, McCain wins, because each STATE delegation gets only one vote, so the lone congressman in Wyoming gets one vote, and all 54 reps from California get only one vote together, and there are more states with a majority of GOP congressmen in the delegation. Oh, and here is a trip (from the 12th Amendment), if the presidential election goes to the House, the Vice President is chosen by the Senate--Imagine a McCain-Biden administration!

    If any of the above happens, there will be a hue and cry to change the system--lots of luck on that one! It only takes 13 states to stop a constitutional amendment, and there are 20 or so states that have a disproportionate share of power in presidential politics.

    "...no state, without its consent, shall be deprived of its equal suffrage in the Senate..."
     
    #1 Major B, Sep 20, 2008
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 20, 2008
  2. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell
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    This election is going to make 2000 look like childs play. The Dems are going to try to create votes out of every corner.:BangHead:
     
  3. Bro. Curtis

    Bro. Curtis
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    I don't think it'll be that close, but the debates have a lot of swing power.
     

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