The U.S. States Where Recession Is Already a Reality

Dale Oxley doesn’t need to hear about rising odds of a U.S. recession to dread the future. For the West Virginia homebuilder, the downturn has already arrived.

“Everyone is going to have to tighten their belts,” said Oxley, the 48-year-old owner of a Charleston-area construction company. “The next couple of years are going to be difficult.”

As economists size up the chances of the first nationwide slump since 2009, pockets of the country are already contracting. Four states -- Alaska, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming -- are in a recession, and three others are at risk of prolonged declines, according to indexes of state economic performance tracked by Moody’s Analytics.


The regions suffering the most are in the flop stage of the energy industry’s boom-to-bust cycle, and manufacturing-dependent areas hurt by a rising dollar are at risk of receding. Whether the weak links break the entire U.S. economy will hinge largely on a group that’s benefited from the energy price collapse: American consumers.

“The impetus for weakening regional economies is the huge fall in energy prices and other commodities prices, which is taking a tremendous toll,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, who is concerned of a broadening into a national recession. “If the consumer were to falter for any reason, that would be a big problem.”

Job gains and losses are key factors that the National Bureau of Economic Research uses to chart U.S. expansions and recessions. Even as U.S. employers added 2.7 million workers in 2015, job cuts last year totaled 18,800 in North Dakota, 11,800 in West Virginia and 6,400 in Wyoming, according to the U.S. Labor Department.

The common thread? They all have concentrations of energy companies. A 72 percent plunge in crude oil prices since a peak in June 2014 has led to lower production and firings.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eality-in-spots-from-west-virginia-to-wyoming

 

It looks like the U.S. economy is already in a recession, according to these indicators.

The Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has been below 50 since October of 2015. Any reading on the PMI below 50 suggests a contraction in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. Last time the PMI declined for four or more consecutive months, we were in the midst of the Great Recession. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, last accessed February 2, 2016.)

The Markit Flash U.S. Services PMI is another reliable indicator of where the U.S. economy is headed. It’s an indicator of the health of the services sector in the U.S. economy. In February, this indicator declined for the first time since October of 2013, registering at 49.8 in February, down from 53.2 in January. (Source: Markit, February 24, 2016.)

Finally, consumer spending is plummeting. Please look at the chart below. It shows the ratio of inventories to sales at businesses across the U.S. economy. This chart scares me.

When this ratio rises, it means businesses are increasing their stockpile of goods because consumers are buying less.

Notice the ratio started trending higher in 2012. Now, it stands at its highest level since the Great Recession (the shaded area on the chart above). Don’t ignore this. It tells us a recession in the U.S. economy is in play.

http://www.profitconfidential.com/economy/u-s-economy-proof-its-already-in-a-recession/