Trump’s in the lead — but these polls are junk

Discussion in 'News / Current Events' started by Revmitchell, Aug 19, 2015.

  1. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell
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    .......Which brings us to Donald Trump. There’s no question he’s polling better than any other GOP candidate, and by a mile.

    Now, the very fact that all the polls agree on this is probably enough to make it clear he has the lead at the moment. As it happens, that’s not worth very much — at the end of August 2011, Rick Perry had about the same numbers Trump does now, and in 2007 Rudy Giuliani was doing better than Trump is today.
    But what if all the polls are junk? What if, in the desperate act of just trying to get a sample of any significant size, pollsters throw out elementary logic in reporting the results?

    What if what they’re polling does not actually reflect the true nature of those who will vote in Republican primaries and caucuses?
    Forget the rhetorical questions. These polls are junk, and they are not reflective. To take the most recent example, CNN trumpeted a poll showing Trump with 24 percent of GOP voters nationwide. The problem is that 52 percent of those surveyed by CNN said they’re going to vote in the GOP primaries.

    That’s insane. The overall electorate is about 225 million. In 2012, 20 million voted in the GOP primaries. That’s 10 percent, not 52 percent.
    A few days earlier, CNN did a poll of Iowa voters showing Trump in the lead — and even more outrageously, the poll’s findings suggested that 62 percent of Iowa’s population would attend the January caucuses. Oh? In 2012, a whopping 2.5 percent of Iowa’s adult population turned out. CNN’s poll is literally off by a factor of 25.
    CNN isn’t the only offender by a long stretch. An Aug. 2 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll featured 1,000 adults, of whom 252 were said to be likely Republican primary voters. That’s 25 percent of all Americans — 2 ¹/₂ times the size of the 2012 GOP electorate.

    The same poll sought to break down the preferences of those 252 voters and report them out as though they were statistically reliable as relates to the Republican Party — when a 250-person nationwide sample is far too tiny to be representative. As a DC expert said to me yesterday, “These polls are either way too big or way too small.”
    We’re flying blind here, people. Nobody knows what’s really going on.


    http://nypost.com/2015/08/18/trumps-in-the-lead-but-these-polls-are-junk/
     
  2. Zaac

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    I guess the RNC has to do pieces like this now in order to convince the diehards that all is not lost and a Trump coronation inevitable. :laugh:

    Even more reason why the GOP should be worried. The more folks do pieces like this, belittling Trump and the support he has garnered, the more he is apt to take it as a slight by the GOP to treat him unfairly so that he can't get the nomination.

    Which will in turn lead to him running as a third party candidate.
     
  3. Revmitchell

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    ssooooo......getting back to the op,


    It appears that polling has become more difficult for pollsters due to lack of landline phones in the homes and people who are weary of responding to polls.
     
  4. just-want-peace

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    Disagree!
    The GOP needs to be worried that conservatives ARE NOT in the bag for them as they used to be. Trump is bringing a lot of the "behind the green door" co-habitation the Rs have with the Ds, and the light is refusing to be snuffed out.

    As to the GOP being worried, this whole nation SHOULD BE WORRIED, not just the Rs, cause if we don't get a POTUS soon that has as his goal to help the nation as a whole - rather that picking groups & scared to wear big-boy pants - we are soon gonna be in deep doo-doo!
     
  5. Zaac

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    What conservatives are we talking about?

    We're already in it.
     
  6. InTheLight

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    Yes, pollsters can't use robo-callers to do polling of people using cell phones. Robo-callers can only be used on landlines. This means it takes longer to do polls nowadays.

    However, that also means the polling data is likely more accurate. If someone with a cell phone is willing to set aside 10-15 minutes and answer questions directly to a human that means they are likely more serious about their answers compared to someone pushing buttons ("Press 1 for Hillary, press 2 for Bush", etc.)

    So, I disagree with the writer of the news article.

    Also, would like to see the CNN poll referred to in this section:

    To take the most recent example, CNN trumpeted a poll showing Trump with 24 percent of GOP voters nationwide. The problem is that 52 percent of those surveyed by CNN said they’re going to vote in the GOP primaries.

    That’s insane. The overall electorate is about 225 million. In 2012, 20 million voted in the GOP primaries. That’s 10 percent, not 52 percent.


    This simply shows the writer is a person with a dearth of brain cells and doesn't understand how polls are conducted. You see, CNN's poll showed that 52 percent of those they polled said they were going to vote in the GOP primaries NOT 52 percent of all GOP voters.
     
  7. Revmitchell

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    This assumes that pollsters actually want and are doing the questioning by individuals. I do not know nor have sen where that is happening. According to the op pollsters are now taking other short cuts. Further, what is seen on election day is often not lining up with the previous polling results.
     
  8. InTheLight

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    Citation? Where is this in the OP?
     
  9. 777

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    Well, they said it - many of the people responding claimed they were going to vote in the GOP primary, far more than should have said it. Either those people were mistaken or plain lying or the parameters of the poll are fatally flawed.

    Polling now is much more erratic than in the past due to the advent of the internet, cell phones, and such. They have to tweak the methodology now, and it'll take more time for sure. Really, in this case, I don't see where it should matter - primary polls are notoriously unreliable even the "internal polling" they do.
     
  10. InTheLight

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    Fifty-two percent of registered GOP voters that participated in a telephone poll said they would vote in the primary. That's a highly qualified group, certainly more serious voters than merely asking someone on the street who had voted GOP in the past.
     
  11. InTheLight

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    I think one of the main reasons Trump is leading in the polls is that people are angry with the system and it's quite fashionable to say you would vote for Trump because he's got your emotional bases covered. How many people say "Trump" when polled because they think it's kind of cool that he's upsetting the system and they want a piece of that action?

    I like to believe when these people get into the voting booth they'll sober up.
     
  12. 777

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    No, that's what we're saying here, it's more of a statistical impossibility:

    Now I do agree with you over the reasons Trump is so popular right now and also that there's a good chance he will crash and burn anytime but he is an embodiment of the pop culture, and they have called many recent and past elections (Ventura, Franken, even Reagan).
     
  13. Revmitchell

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    He is popular because the establishment GOP is trying to out lib the liberals. America wants something done. Establishment GOP and dems do not.
     

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