1. Welcome to Baptist Board, a friendly forum to discuss the Baptist Faith in a friendly surrounding.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register to get access to all the features that our community has to offer.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon and God Bless!

Featured Trump winning the evangelical vote

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by FriendofSpurgeon, Feb 24, 2016.

  1. kyredneck

    kyredneck Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2009
    Messages:
    19,500
    Likes Received:
    2,880
    Faith:
    Baptist
    Trump’s romp in Nevada shows why conventional wisdom about his ceiling may be wrong

    "....The returns from last night’s Nevada caucuses cast doubt on three assumptions that are widely held and often repeated by Republican elites in Washington, who are perhaps too eager to assure one another that Donald Trump still cannot actually win the nomination.

    The first is that Trump has a relatively low ceiling of support. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Trump won the Silver State with 46 percent. He beat Marco Rubio by 22 points. Ted Cruz finished a close third with 21.4 percent. As the Washington Examiner’s Byron York writes, “If he has a ceiling, at least in Nevada, it is higher than earlier thought.”

    The second is that Trump will ultimately be hobbled by a lack of organization. After his surprisingly soft second place finish in Iowa, many operatives concluded he would struggle to close the deal in future caucus states. Most of the coverage before last night said it was possible The Donald could lose in Nevada – despite leading in polls – because his rivals had built impressive ground games and his own supporters tend to be lower-propensity voters. Trump’s people proved last night that they will show up for caucuses.

    The third is that, as the field of candidates condenses, every voter who is not currently for Trump will fall in line behind whoever emerges as his alternative. Many of Cruz’s voters actually look a lot like Trump voters demographically and ideologically. It should not be treated as a given that Cruz supporters would automatically move to Rubio if it becomes a two-man race. It stands to reason that many backing the Texan might prefer Trump over the other Cuban American senator, who continues to be dogged by his role in the Gang of Eight immigration bill....."
     
  2. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2010
    Messages:
    24,988
    Likes Received:
    2,268
    Faith:
    Baptist
    Wow, Trump won Nevada. Big Whoop. That's a blue state anyway. Ewe-idge turnout too--about 50,000 people.

    If Trump continues to take about 30% of the delegates in the primaries with proportional delegate allocation, but he loses the "winner take all" states of Florida (Rubio's home state) and/or Ohio (Kasich's home state) he won't have enough delegates to lock up the nomination on the first ballot at the convention. If this scenario with Florida and Ohio plays out, after the first binding vote at the convention shows Trump falls short, anything can happen.

    So really, the only thing that has to happen for Trump to not "automatically" get the nomination is for Kasich to win Ohio or Rubio to win Florida. At that point the RNC can do whatever they feel necessary to oust Trump from the nomination. Shouldn't be hard.
     
  3. kyredneck

    kyredneck Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2009
    Messages:
    19,500
    Likes Received:
    2,880
    Faith:
    Baptist
    And you'd approve of any dirty tactic whatsoever to deny Trump the nomination? Even if it would mean Trump would be justified to run third party himself and consequently throw the election to Hillary?
     
  4. blessedwife318

    blessedwife318 Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2014
    Messages:
    2,358
    Likes Received:
    445
    Faith:
    Baptist
    Trumps whole purpose is to ensure a win for the Dems. I will always believe he is a Trojan horse and we have an extremely gullible electorate. I will be writing in a candidate if Trump gets the nomination. I will not vote for him. And I will never underestimate the GOP power to snack defeat from the jaws of victory again. If he is the nominee I will be done with the GOP. It's about time for a new party anyways.

    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. Zaac

    Zaac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    13,757
    Likes Received:
    222
    I think as the race condenses, you're gonna see more and more of the other candidates going toward Trump. I'm already seeing more and more comments from evangelicals who feel like he's the inevitable candidate so they've already started positioning themselves to believe he's the best candidate. And they will vote for him.

    My response to them however would be, "Why vote for the surrogate[​IMG]

    when you can vote for the real thing?

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Zaac

    Zaac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    13,757
    Likes Received:
    222
    I agree. If all Southern Baptists ALONE formed a new party and overwhelmingly always supported our aligned with Christ nominees, things could get interesting.

    But then again, I don't know that we need to be so closely affiliated with party politics even if it is our own formed party.
     
  7. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2010
    Messages:
    24,988
    Likes Received:
    2,268
    Faith:
    Baptist
    What dirty tactic? If he doesn't win on the first ballot at the convention, the deal making starts. Then we will see that Trump just doesn't always come out winning and making good deals. Ha!
     
  8. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2006
    Messages:
    52,013
    Likes Received:
    3,649
    Faith:
    Baptist
    So what? That is what news is for to be informed.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. kyredneck

    kyredneck Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2009
    Messages:
    19,500
    Likes Received:
    2,880
    Faith:
    Baptist
    *Mounting a third party run IF HE WINS the nomination. You approve of that in order to stop him from becoming POTUS? Even if it meant Hillary would become POTUS?

    Donald Trump is well on his way to the 1,237 delegates he needs to be the GOP nominee

    "Presidential politics is, at its core, all about math. Nowhere is that more true than in the fight for delegates to this summer’s Republican National Convention. And, the delegate math is close to conclusive: Donald Trump will be extremely close to the 1,237 delegates he needs to formally
    claim the party’s nomination by the end of the primary process
    ....."

    * [add] I incorrectly worded in post #23. This is what I'm referring to:

    Will U.S. Conservatives Mount a Third-Party Challenge If Trump Is the Nominee?

    ...not a brokered convention.
     
    #29 kyredneck, Feb 24, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2016
  10. Rolfe

    Rolfe Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    May 17, 2014
    Messages:
    6,898
    Likes Received:
    638
    Faith:
    Baptist
    I would also add the word Stupidity.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. Rolfe

    Rolfe Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    May 17, 2014
    Messages:
    6,898
    Likes Received:
    638
    Faith:
    Baptist
    I am still waiting to hear how he plans to make Mexico pay for his Wall...
     
  12. Zaac

    Zaac Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    13,757
    Likes Received:
    222

    Because he's a terrific businessman and knows how to make a deal.

    Psssst. Somebody remind him about Trump Airlines and Trump Vodka and Trump Magazine and let's not forget Trump University.Rolleyes
     
    • Like Like x 1
  13. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2010
    Messages:
    24,988
    Likes Received:
    2,268
    Faith:
    Baptist
    He's going to put a surcharge on money transfers to Mexico and increase the cost of obtaining a visa for Mexicans to come to the U.S.

    That ought to raise about $10,000...
     
  14. TCassidy

    TCassidy Late-Administator Emeritus
    Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2005
    Messages:
    20,080
    Likes Received:
    3,490
    Faith:
    Baptist
    But he is going to make America grate again!
    cheese.jpg
     
    • Like Like x 1
  15. carpro

    carpro Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2004
    Messages:
    25,823
    Likes Received:
    1,167
    Faith:
    Baptist
    Carter's was an act. The secret Service has finally outed that hypocrite.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  16. kyredneck

    kyredneck Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2009
    Messages:
    19,500
    Likes Received:
    2,880
    Faith:
    Baptist
    • Like Like x 2
  17. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2006
    Messages:
    52,013
    Likes Received:
    3,649
    Faith:
    Baptist
    Soooo.. what are you talking about?
     
  18. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    3,085
    Likes Received:
    1,190
    Faith:
    Baptist
    The chances of a brokered convention are slim as of right now - the RNC require that a nominee must win a majority in at least eight states, so there is no way somebody out of it altogether like Christie or Romney is going to be the nominee.

    The current delegate countis NOT directly proportional:

    1. Donald Trump: 81
    2. Ted Cruz: 17
    3. Marco Rubio: 17
    4. John Kasich: 6
    5. Jeb Bush: 4
    6. Ben Carson: 4
    7. Carly Fiorina: 1
    8. Rand Paul: 1
    9. Not yet allocated: 2,341
    Anybody ahead by the slimmest of lead by March 15 will win it this time,
     
    • Like Like x 1
  19. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
    Site Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2010
    Messages:
    24,988
    Likes Received:
    2,268
    Faith:
    Baptist
    The nomination process is not automatic. A candidate must receive 1,237 delegate votes on the floor of the Republican National Convention to become the nominee. Delegates are bound to vote as their state went in the primaries and caucuses. If someone doesn't attain 1,237 on the first vote, delegates are released from being bound by their original vote and can vote for someone else. This never happens on a large scale nowadays, but 100 years ago and longer, it was commonplace.

    It's important to note that if things progress the way they are currently going, that is, Trump garners 30% of the delegates he needs to win Florida and Ohio, which are winner take all, to possibly get to 1,237 delegates. If he loses either of these states he likely will not have 1,237 heading into the convention. A brokered convention is a very real possibility.
     
  20. Salty

    Salty 20,000 Posts Club
    Administrator

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2003
    Messages:
    38,982
    Likes Received:
    2,615
    Faith:
    Baptist
    If one of the other candidates drop out - how do you know who their second choice is?

    As I had stated previously - when the polls were considered as to whom would be in the debates (Varisty and JV - as well as position ) I think they should have polled people of their first, second, and third choice - then the average would have been taken to determine place setting.

    Now, what the exit polls should do, is to ask who their second choice is - Now that would be interesting.....
     
Loading...