USC Falls

Discussion in 'Sports' started by bobbyd, Oct 28, 2006.

  1. bobbyd

    bobbyd
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    USC's run of luck came to an end tonight when the couldn't finish the comeback against Oregon State. I'm by no means saying they aren't a good team...but i think in some of those come back wins, it was more luck than skill.
     
  2. Bob Alkire

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    I am not USC fan but the team with the best players and coaching will pull out a lot of games in the end and I think USC has done that in the past. I think it comes down to knowing how to win and thinking you are going to win even when one is behind. I still think USC has the better players, but they have a lot of yonger players. When I say better players I'm talking about between Oregon State and USC. USC will be at the top or near the top every year, with good coaching, players want to go there from all over the USA.
     
    #2 Bob Alkire, Oct 29, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 29, 2006
  3. EdSutton

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    Yeah, Finally we know now that USC Football is "in the tank", where it should have been considered all along. I mean, let's face it - this team has definitely gone to the bottom of the heap. :rolleyes: The Trojans have now lost three - count 'em, three games now in four years, by a total of 8 points!!

    No doubt they need a big :1_grouphug: !

    (Uh- wanna' compare any of the other 118 Div. I teams to see where that rates over that same four years?) For comparison my own KY Wildcats have lost four games already this year, (and will probably lose a mimimun of six, at best) and more than doubled that 8 point total in their first SEC loss to Florida, alone at 26-7, :tonofbricks: (Not to mention getting a big "country whuppin'" with and by LSU at 49-0) and are still being talked about as having a good shot at a bowl. Somehow, it sorta' rings hollow, to hear about the premature demise of USC, IMO.

    Get real, folks! This team still has an excellent shot at finishing in the top five; could well have fewer points in losses, in its record than any save for some undefeated teams, and depending on what happens in the Big East, which will have at least two of their current three undefeated teams with at least one lost, at best, and also what happens in the Big 10, Big 12, and SEC, could still qualify to play for the 'National Championship', although the odds aren't great for it. As Mark Twain, once said, "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." I suspect the reports of USC's demise are about the same, and I'm no USC fan, and won't ever be one, unless and until they are in the SEC, which will never happen.

    So for the Nat'l title, as much as it pains me as a UK fan first, but since I'm a UL and other SEC fan second - Go, UL!; Go, UT!; Go Fla.!; Go Auburn!; One of y'all please make it to the top of the pile, and knock off the Big 10!

    Ed
     
    #3 EdSutton, Oct 30, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 30, 2006
  4. Scott J

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    Rightly... or I would argue wrongly... The Cal/USC winner has an excellent shot at playing in the NC game. USC also provides ND a great chance for improving its BCS standing at the end of the year. For whatever reason, the computers love the Pac-10 in spite of the fact that their head to head with the SEC strongly favored the good guys... only Arkansas failed to show.

    Cal is currently ranked 3rd by the computers. Ridiculous I know... but somehow that's the way it works out. The only thing that would be more ridiculous than Cal playing in the NC game after being completely dominated by UT would be if ND made it after being embarrassed at home by Michigan.

    I guess if I had a bias against Arkansas doing well, it is that Arkansas' success provides a comeback to Pac10 fans when told that the SEC is a better conference.

    Although it is talked about a great deal, I don't think the odds of an SEC team playing in the NC game are good at all. If USC wins out, they'll move back up into the top 2 if all BE teams lose. If Cal or ND wins out, they'll probably do the same.

    Again, rightly or wrongly, if a BE team goes undefeated then they'll be in especially if it happens to be WVU. They validated themselves for the poll voters against UGA last year.
     
  5. Scott J

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    Oh, I forgot to mention another absolutely ridiculous but very possible outcome. Texas could make it back to the NC game... after losing to the ONLY top ten caliber team they played all year. In their case, the polls love them for no apparent reason other than name.

    I don't think they've played well enough to beat any other top 10 team.
     
  6. StefanM

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    I really hope Texas loses in the conf. championship.

    As an Arkansas (and SEC) fan, I don't see the SEC having a good chance to put someone in the NC game.

    I'm hoping for the Sugar Bowl, and that's probably all any SEC team can get at this point.
     
  7. Scott J

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    I'd actually be surprised not to see two SEC teams in BCS games, just not the big one.

    Auburn, Arkansas, UF, UT, and LSU all have a possibility of finishing with two losses or less. Depending on how things play out in the top 10, that could be good enough.

    OTOH, the BCS has been unkind to the SEC before.
     
  8. bobbyd

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    I don't think the point is that USC is not a good team...and that is not what i was suggesting either. It takes a lot of skill to come back time and time again...but it also takes a lot of luck sometimes. I just think that their luck finally ran out on them on Saturday.
    Like that old saying, you can only go to the well so many times before it runs dry.

    I still think USC will win the Pac 10 and get a great bowl bid and probably will win it too...but i'm not sure if they are still in the hunt for the NC. It's pretty late in the year to pick up a loss and have to rebound in the polls.

    And to be honest, right now i have NO CLUE who will be in the BCS game or who will win it. And who would have imagined 3 undefeated teams in the Big East this late in the season.
     
  9. Scott J

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    USC plays Oregon, Cal, UCLA, and ND. I don't think any of those are as good as UF, Michigan, OSU, Auburn, or even UT or LSU. However, the computers do and so do the voters.

    If USC wins those games, they will have beaten two of the teams ahead of them in the polls plus two teams the pollsters respect. UF or Auburn or both will have lost again by then. Texas doesn't deserve more love and probably won't get it over USC. Either WVU or L'ville will lose and fall below USC this week. By the time OSU and Mich play, either Cal, USC, or ND will be 4th or 5th in the human polls and probably 2nd in the computer polls. They'll be able to move up to 3rd in the human polls and then jump the BE undefeated champ who will be outside the top 5 in the computers.

    The only realistic scenario to prevent this is if all three have 2 losses. If Oregon doesn't beat USC then one of those three barring a major, major upset will finish with only 1 loss. ND and Cal could both finish with one loss as well... but a 3 loss USC would hurt them in the computers... and I don't look for USC to lose but once more this year. I do expect one more loss from them.

    USC has had a great run but this year they've played very "mortal". This is not the team of the past 2 years. Last year's USC team would have waxed everyone they have on their schedule this year. They most certainly wouldn't have had close wins over WSU or UW. Ore St wouldn't have been within 30 points of them.
     
  10. KenH

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    West Virginia has the inside track to the spot in the BCS championship game opposite the Ohio State-Michigan winner.

    I would like to see Arkansas move to the number 2 spot in the BCS standings but I am not confident that even winning out with significant wins over Tennessee, LSU, and Florida in the SEC championship game would get them to the number 2 spot this year.

    Two-thirds of the BCS standings are based on the human judgment polls and unless a team starts off the year in at least the top ten n those polls it's a long row to how to make it to number 1 or 2 in the BCS standings even with an excellent rating in the objective computer polls.
     
  11. rbell

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    I was looking at the BCS numbers.

    The computer rankings have Cal at #3.

    Gotta get me one of those computers. :rolleyes: Sheesh.
     
  12. KenH

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    I have my disagreements with them as well, but at least the computer rankings are objective.
     
  13. Scott J

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    If Arkansas had started out in the top 10 then gotten thrashed by USC the way they did, they wouldn't have been able to make it back to #2. That's a privilege reserved for only a few media darlings like Pac10 teams and ND.

    Proof? UT may lose out for all I know. They certainly better start playing more than one quarter of football per game. But... they beat the life out of Cal, are 7-1, lost by only 1 point to a team some picked to win the NC,... and they are still ranked below Cal, USC, ND, and Texas in the BCS.

    SEC teams hurt themselves by beating each other up. A 5-2 team might be a very good team but you aren't going to get the style points you'd get from beating an Oregon who was ranked in the top 10.

    The system has a built in bias against a conference situated like the SEC is.
     
  14. Scott J

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    Can you say any objective person or algorithm (sp?) could put Cal #3 after the way they were whipped by UT? If they are #3 with one loss wouldn't that mean that UT has to be 1 or 2? Effectively, UT proved by manhandling Cal that they were superior to the teams Cal subsequently beat didn't they?

    If we were talking about a close game then maybe you argue that the better team didn't win and I might agree. It wasn't a close game. UT could have easily shut them out if they'd continued with the gameplan and starters. They very easily could have hung 50 on them.

    Lesson to the astute... if you have an OOC opponent down, don't call off the dogs. Run it up on them.

    Second only to Arkansas' thumping by USC, Fulmer's decision to let up on Cal mid-way through the 3rd qtr may have hurt the SEC in the BCS the most. Funny thing about that is that Cal deserves to have it run up about as much as anyone. They do it every chance they get.
     
  15. TomVols

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    Ken wrote:
    Yes, but using what criteria? That's the thing...we don't know what they're using as a formula. It's like hearing that ROI for a venture is 78%. Excellent. But what if the formula is profits/assets divided by how many birthdays the CFO will have this year :laugh: We just don't know what objective forumlas they're using. Computers are programmed by subjective people.
    There's another side to that though. The human polls have no limit as to where you can vote someone from week to week. That's why we've seen Notre Dame (last year in particular) jump ten spots or more, or start the season unranked and debut in the polls in the top 14. If the voters favor you or get enamored with you or just flat out have a bias for you, there's a way to get you in there.
    Well, ARK is in a catch 22 with UT and LSU. Both teams are guaranteed to have one more loss before playing ARK. That will diminish the quality of the win. I suppose in the grand scheme of things it would be better for ARK to beat a one-loss UT and a 3 loss LSU than beating two 2 loss teams, but then again, who knows?

    By the way, Ken, what do you make of the reports regarding the Liberty Bowl wanting ARK? I mean, it makes sense logistically, but barring an implosion, I would think ARK winning at least nine games guarantees them a New Year's Bowl. Maybe I'm wrong. Isn't the Cotton the only NYB that leans for the West? Cap One and Outback want East Teams if memory serves me right, though neither are locked.


    Scott:
    I think the USC of the past two years eeked out some wins. I don't hear many people saying that USC is in the upper tier of one-loss teams. Herbstreit says he thinks Tennessee is the best one-loss team in America right now. Don't know if I agree with that. I think you can make a case though. At any rate, I still think FLA can win out. SC, Vandy, Fla St, and perhaps the West champs await. I wouldn't take any of those lightly, but they would be favored in all of those I'd think.

    Let me throw this in regarding an SEC team getting to Glendale: if Florida wins out and beats a well-ranked Western division team in the SEC title game, perhaps especially so if they get an Auburn rematch, then do you take a (presumably) undefeated Big East team over a one-loss SEC champion that by most accounts beat itself?
     
  16. Scott J

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    Not against the competition that has played them close this year with consistency. The only team I can remember them beating bad was Arkansas... dog gone it.
    The loss is too fresh. If they beat Oregon, ND, UCLA, and Cal... the talking heads will jump on their bandwagon.
    Yeah. I heard him say it.

    Two weeks ago, I said they were playing as well as anyone. I'd disagree with him now though. They've had to consecutive games where they played mediocre to poor for the better part of 3 qtrs and won the game in the 4th. That's what got SC in trouble. They didn't put lesser teams away. The Vols again shot themselves in the foot repeatedly against USC... and that's not to take one thing away from the Cocks.

    In fact, I think their offense was the most challenging UT has played this year. I think they could very well give UF some trouble. Without a couple of gifts in the 1st half, the game could have been alot different.

    I guess it evens out. Several breaks/mistakes/calls went against UT. But several breaks/mistakes/calls went against USC. While it looked like a make-up for the earlier WR push off that was called INT against UT, that late no call on Wade was one of the worst I've ever seen. He practically undressed Rice.

    I said it from the start. I love this team... but they better start putting complete games together... starting this week.
    I agree. UGA gave them more of a battle though than most thought they would. In my estimation, USC is a much better team than UGA at this point of the season. A re-do on that one would probably be a USC blowout win.

    Not WVU. Maybe L'ville. Definitely Rutgers.

    It won't matter though if Cal, USC, or ND wins out. The computers love them and whether it is an anti-SEC bias or a pro-Pac10 bias... the polls seemed to have forgotten the whippings the SEC gave the Pac10 this year... except for Arkansas.

    Texas will probably continue to be hurt badly by the computers and rightly so.

    If UT could make it to the SEC CG with one loss, they could possibly fair a tad better or help Auburn a little more. They would need Arkansas to break the top 10 after this week though which is a tall order.

    In reality though, neither UT nor UF have anyone on their schedule that is likely to help them in the computers. OTOH, they have several that can ruin their hopes.

    If UT beats LSU... the Tigers will have 3 losses and probably won't be ranked in the BCS 30. If they beat Arkansas then Arkansas will drop below 20th at best. They'll get no points no matter how bad they might beat UK or Vandy. UF as you mentioned now has Vandy, USC, and FSU. They won't get any poll or computer help from any of them.

    Auburn could easily lose to UGA or Bama to make things worse.

    Nope... it would take a minor miracle for UT, UF, Auburn, or Arkansas to go to the NC game even if they win out.
     
  17. TomVols

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    In 2004, USC beat Stanford by 3, Cal by 6, Ore St by 8, UCLA by 5
    This year they had three consecutive struggles before finally losing to Oregon State (WSU, Wash, ASU).
    Probably. Depends on what the other one-loss teams do.

    Regarding UT:
    Starting to see what I've been seeing? :) If I'd said that three weeks ago, you'd question my support.....wait, I did and you did. :tongue3:

    Our lack of a running game is going to bite us and soon. Trooper Taylor has been my choice for assistant coach of the year, with Cut coming in 2nd to him. Kurt Roper needs to find some buttons to push.
    Agreed on all counts. UT has had some bad calls go against them, but Wade has gotten away with interference very visibly in the last three games.

    More later....
     
  18. Scott J

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    No. I have just seen something different the past couple of weeks.
    It doesn't have to but it very well could. Honestly though, what is the problem? The RB's seem to have talent but as well as the O-line pass blocks...? It seems that something should work. The only two good running plays I remember from Sat were a draw and the dive Foster scored on.

    I wonder if UT isn't guilty right now of playing to the level of the competition? Although again, I was pretty impressed with USC.
     
  19. KenH

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    If Arkansas ends up in the Liberty Bowl, then Houston Nutt may need to dust off his resume. The Cotton Bowl won't even go over very well at this point but Nutt could keep his job.

    Now that Nutt is in his ninth year the Hog Nation will no longer accept mediocrity. I don't have a lot of problems with Houston Nutt but a significant portion of the Hog Nation does. And if he or his agent even say hello to another school looking to fill a head coaching vacancy, then Nutt had best board their plane and go with them. After flirting with Nebraska and LSU in recent years a third time will not be tolerated by the Hog Nation.
     
  20. TomVols

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    The Cotton Bowl unacceptable? It's a pretty significant bowl game. And going to the Liberty Bowl still means you guys would finish in the upper half of the league. Last year you were 4-7, '4 ARK was 5-6, '03's 9-3 record got you to the Independance Bowl (where you won), and '02s 9-3 got you to the Music City bowl. I think Cotton would be a great step, and the Liberty would be nothing to sneeze at, assuming ARK doesn't pull off the Cinderella of the year and jump in the BCS.

    Are expectations that high among all Hog fans? What's it going to take in your opinion for Nutt to have some security and safety?
     

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