We're about three weeks away from the deadline. What do you think will happen if the debt ceiling isn't raised? How bad could the economy get? Because of the limited poll format I couldn't fill out the scenarios. Here are my original choices: 1. Not much. The stock market will lose a few percentage points but regain it within weeks. 2. The stock market will take a big hit, perhaps 8%-10% decline or more. The so-called recovery would be over. 3. Stock market takes a big hit and banks stop lending money, businesses lay off people, leading to the double dip recession. 4. U.S. government goes into default, meaning it does not make its loan payments to debtors. Instead the U.S. picks and chooses who to pay interest only payments. Rates on treasury bonds would rise sharply, as would mortgage rates and credit card rates. Deep recession. 5. U.S. goes into default & can‘t pay anyone, bond rates rise, mortgage rates rise, business lending dries up or is too expensive, businesses lay off people, exports decline, unemployment rate rises to 12% or more. Major depression. 6. U.S. defaults & pays no one including medicare, social security, and military. Credit card rates reach 25% or more causing consumers to clamp down on all spending, unemployment goes way up, stock market crashes, houses are foreclosed, China and other creditors no longer buy U.S. securities, the dollar is dropped as the world’s reserve currency. Meltdown. Feel free to add comments or alternate scenarios.