Who's a lock to get 3,000 hits?

Discussion in 'Sports' started by rbell, Jul 31, 2009.

  1. rbell

    rbell
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    Here's the top 25 active hit leaders...

    RankPlayer (age)HitsBats
    1.Ken Griffey (39) 2736
    2.Omar Vizquel (42) 2683
    3.Ivan Rodriguez (37) 2676
    4.Gary Sheffield (40) 2675
    5.Derek Jeter (35) 2664
    6.Luis Gonzalez (41) 2591
    7.Alex Rodriguez (33) 2466
    8.Garret Anderson (37) 2452
    9.Manny Ramirez (37) 2445
    10.Johnny Damon (35) 2369
    11.Chipper Jones (37) 2365
    12.Vladimir Guerrero (34) 2187
    13.Edgar Renteria (33) 2153
    14.Moises Alou (42) 2134
    15.Jim Thome (38) 2112
    16.Todd Helton (35) 2068
    17.Bobby Abreu (35) 2057
    18.Ray Durham (37) 2054
    19.Miguel Tejada (35) 2049
    20.Jason Kendall (35) 2046
    21.Carlos Delgado (37) 2038
    22.Mark Grudzielanek (39) 2010
    23.Ichiro Suzuki (35) 1955
    24.Magglio Ordonez (35) 1906
    25.Brian Giles (38) 1897

    Who's getting 3K among that list? Griffey's iffy, IMO (hey, that rhymes). Healthy for 3 years...sure. But he hasn't been healthy for that long a stretch in a decade, if ever.

    Jeter is likely. A-rod as well.

    Some of the sluggers....well, in this post-steroid age, it just depends. I think many of them will decline too far, and will peter out at about 2,800.

    Johnny Damon needs a great year to get him close enough to coast in. Not sure he has it left.

    Manny needs to average about 140 hits for 4 years. Can he do it at 41...without chemical help?

    To me...the most intriguing is Ichiro. If that guy had started here at 22...great goodness...he might have passed Pete. As it stands, I think he has an excellent shot. He could drop off significantly, and still eclipse 3,000 hits.

    What say you to all this? Other thoughts?
     
    #1 rbell, Jul 31, 2009
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2009
  2. ccrobinson

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    I'm not sure Griffey plays another season. His numbers don't look like the kind of numbers anybody wants to see out of their CF.

    No question that ARod and Jeter are a lock.

    I think Johnny Damon's going to get there.

    As much as Larry Jones (you can call him Chipper if you like) keeps playing through nagging injuries like he does, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he stuck around long enough to hit 3,000.

    Doesn't it seem like Edgar Renteria's been around forever? He's only 33. I suppose he might make it.
     
  3. EdSutton

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    Unfortunately, that is the BIG question these days, isn't it? :tear:

    Ed
     
  4. Palatka51

    Palatka51
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    I like this reasoning. :thumbs:
     
  5. TomVols

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    I like the answers so far with the exception of Chipper. I see him flaming out one way or another. He shoots off at the mouth an awful lot and I think he'll eventually just take his marbles home to sulk. He's hinted at such.

    Let me pose the question a different way: who on this list needs 3,000 to get to Cooperstown (since the Paris Hilton media has deemed that to be the minimum for hits now a days)?
     
    #5 TomVols, Jul 31, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 1, 2009
  6. Andy T.

    Andy T.
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    Jeter and A-Rod for sure.

    Manny most likely.

    No way the first 4 listed will get there.

    I seriously doubt Damon gets there - he will start dropping off soon and his defense will soon become a liability (he'll get slower and his arm is awful) and he's not good enough to DH. He might get 2800 or 2900. If he did get to 3,000, he'd probably be the worst player to be in that elite club.

    Vlad might have a chance, but he's an old 34.

    Same with Edgar - guy plays like he's 39, not 33. He's in serious decline. He'll be lucky to get 2500.

    I think Ichiro has an excellent shot. He seems like the kind of athlete that will still be performing well at age 40. If he played his whole career in the U.S., we'd be talking 4,000 for him.
     
  7. Andy T.

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    Johnny Damon for sure. But even if he were to get 3,000, I don't think he's a Hall of Famer.
     

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