Why Ted Cruz will Win Iowa

Discussion in 'Politics' started by InTheLight, Dec 7, 2015.

  1. InTheLight

    InTheLight
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    The latest polls in Iowa show:
    Trump 24.7%
    Cruz 22.7%

    One month ago it was:
    Trump 25.0%
    Cruz 11.0%

    Obviously Cruz is trending upwards in Iowa. Add in the fact that candidates that appeal to the evangelical vote typically win in Iowa--Huckabee in 2008; Santorum in 2012. This ought to be enough to suppose that Cruz would win.

    But the real reason that Cruz will win in Iowa is because of Iowa's caucus system. Iowa does not have regular citizens vote at the ballot box, as is typical of elections, rather Iowa has neighborhood meetings, or caucuses, in 1,682 locations throughout Iowa's 99 counties. At these meetings, or caucuses, the citizens will vote for Republican candidates and (for the first time) the results will be proportional and will be binding. According to the distribution of the votes at each caucus the groups will select delegates that promise to go to the county convention and vote the results of the caucus.

    So the battle for Iowa will boil down to whichever candidate has the best ground game and can mobilize supporters to attend the caucuses. Caucuses are (mostly) boring political party business meetings including local, county, and state issues culminating hours later in the selection of the presidential candidates. They keep the presidential voting to the last item on the agenda so people have to stay for the whole meeting.

    Consider your typical Trump voter vs. the typical Cruz voter. Who is more passionate about politics? Who is ardently pro-life? Who is more educated? Which candidate attracts people that have been engaged in the political process? Not Trump's. Trump supporters are people that are fed up with the political rhetoric and process and want an outsider. Trump's support might be wide, but it isn't deep.

    But most importantly, who will sit through three hours of local party politics in order to vote for their candidate? Not Trump's. And that is why Cruz will win Iowa.
     
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  2. Zaac

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    Then Trump will claim he's been mistreated and is deciding whether or not he will run as an Independent.
     
  3. Revmitchell

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    I certainly favor Cruz but this is inflammatory speculation.
     
  4. InTheLight

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    Trump caucus.JPG
     
  5. Salty

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    and how does the Cruz vote look for attendance at the caucus?
     
  6. Revmitchell

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    I have no idea what you believe you are saying with this graph.
     
  7. InTheLight

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    Not sure.

    This poll is just out.
    ------
    Washington (CNN)Ted Cruz has overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, according to a Monmouth University survey of Iowa Republicans released Monday.

    If the caucuses were held today, Cruz would win with 24% support to Trump's 19% backing. Marco Rubio comes in a close third with 17% and Ben Carson, who was beating Trump 32%-18% in the last Monmouth University poll, has fallen to 13% support.

    Behind the Cruz surge is support among evangelicals -- a decisive voting bloc in Iowa -- who selected Cruz over Trump 30%-18%.


    The poll was conducted among registered voters, with the bulk of the interviews coming from those who are regular Republican primary voters. Monmouth's pollsters report that those who are not regular Republican primary voters were more likely to support Trump, while among those who had participated in previous primaries, Cruz held an edge.

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-iowa-poll/index.html
     
  8. Salty

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    If anything - than this poll may encourage Trump supporters to go to caucus.
     
  9. church mouse guy

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    Cruz is pretty smart for a Baptist.
     
  10. InTheLight

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    From WaPo:
    -------
    [Only six days until the Iowa caucuses.]
    Over the weekend, a Fox News Channel survey suggested that Donald Trump, who'd trailed Ted Cruz at the beginning of the month, surged 15 points to lead Cruz by 11. Well, Quinnipiac University has been polling in Iowa regularly, too, and it found something different. In its poll conducted between Jan. 5 and Jan. 10 (and released on Jan. 11), Quinnipiac had Trump at 31 percent and Cruz at 29 percent. In its poll from Jan. 18 to Jan. 24, overlapping with three days of Fox's most recent poll, the university's pollsters had ... Trump at 31 percent and Cruz at 29 percent.

    A caucus isn't like a normal election, though. It requires a greater investment of time and offers an unusual experience even for people who have voted in Iowa elections before. Which is why this bit of data from that new Quinnipiac poll seems like the most telling.

    Among those who've never been to a caucus before, Trump leads Cruz by 13 points — up from the eight points he led among that group two weeks ago. Among those with caucus experience, Cruz leads by three, while the two were tied earlier this month.

    Meaning that a greater percentage of Trump's support comes from people who haven't done this before — and who therefore are probably less likely to actually show up. (Studies have shown that voting is a habitual act, and those with a voting history are more likely to vote in the future.) If the race in Iowa is close, that puts Trump at a distinct disadvantage.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...tters-for-donald-trump-in-this-new-iowa-poll/
     
    #10 InTheLight, Jan 26, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2016
  11. InTheLight

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    That only about 17% of Trump supporters are definitely going to the Iowa caucuses. That's a recipe for a loss for Trump. Trump's support is wide but not deep. The graph shows that his supporters are unlikely to sit for three hours and listen to party officials debate local, county, and state politics leading up to the selection of party delegates for Presidential preference.
     
  12. Rippon

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    He's in it to win it. And I don't mean Iowa alone. He has realistically said it is not possible to be at the top of every state in this stage of the game. He has also pledged to stay as a Republican.
     
  13. Zaac

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    Right. He should legitimately be the nominee. The only way that he is not the GOP nominee is if some backroom stuff starts taking place and deals are made to get other candidates to try and coalesce their supporters behind someone other than Trump.

    After leading in all the polls the last 7 months, he will go ballistic and run as anything he has to in order to stick it to those he felt wronged him.
     
  14. InTheLight

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    He hasn't won anything yet. His support is around 36% of nationwide registered voters. He's probably going to finish 2nd in Iowa. He will probably win New Hampshire. Then it gets interesting as the laggards start to drop out. Where will there support go? I can't think of any candidate that drops out endorsing Trump.

    Then comes Nevada and then Super Tuesday. After Super Tuesday it will likely be a three man race, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. I suspect Trump will be hovering around 35% to 40%, with the others at 25% to 35%. It will then be obvious if it were a two man race that Trump would not be leading.
     
  15. 777

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    Less than a week to go now, I think Iowa is up for grabs and either Cruz of Trump will win and place there. New Hampshire will be Trump Trump Trump all the way, and Sanders will actually win in that OTHER party's primary.

    Then to South Carolina . . . if Cruz doesn't do well there (loses to Trump by more than, say, 10 points) and if Rubio doesn't come in at least third in these three and loses in Florida, he's done.

    Caucuses are odd, Rick Santorum won Iowa last time and he never had a chance. Even so, I think Hillary will pull out all the stops to win there because she has already written off NH.
     
  16. InTheLight

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    Florida's "primary" isn't until mid-March. Super Tuesday occurs March 1st.
     
  17. 777

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    Well, Rubio won't drop out until Florida. I guess he could win his home state if he somehow gets big momentum coming out of Super Tuesday but both Cruz and Trump would need to fall. Jeb WILL drop out before Florida to save face, maybe even before Iowa.
     
  18. Salty

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    It is my understanding that at a caucus, you can actually change you vote.
    Specifically (again my understanding) a straw poll is first taken. Votes for a candidate that do not meet a threshold (say 10-15% - of that individual caucus - will be dismiss - then a discussion is made about all the candidates- - bottom line a candidate must have a threshold of votes - if not he receives no votes at that caucus. In addition a person who initially voted for a candidates who did not meet a threshold - will cast his vote for someone else.....

    If you have up to date info on this - Please correct me.
     
  19. InTheLight

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    I don't think there is a minimum threshold used in Iowa. So no vote switching.



    Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo using Tapatalk.
     
  20. Deacon

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    Even if Ted Cruz wins Iowa he has alienated New York voters to do it.

    Those NY voters won't be so easy to win over after he has campaigned saying he's not like them.

    Rob
     

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