Zogby: Half Would Never Vote for Hillary for President

Discussion in 'Politics' started by 2 Timothy2:1-4, Oct 21, 2007.

  1. 2 Timothy2:1-4

    2 Timothy2:1-4
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  2. carpro

    carpro
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    "Older voters are most resistant to Clinton—59% of those age 65 and older said they would never vote for the New York senator..."

    And they vote in huge numbers.
     
  3. Ivon Denosovich

    Ivon Denosovich
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    Considering that Giuliani is the (current) frontrunner, Clinton's campaign said this. They're pretty sure they can beat Giuliani. And if Dobson bolts as he's promised to do, they definitely will.

    As far as the other Republican contenders go, a June poll from CBS says that 61% of Democrats are satisfied with the primary pickings while only 30% of Republicans were satisfied with their options. There's no polling data (that I can find) that shows things have substantially changed. And to be President doesn't even require half the votes. (Remember 2000?) It only requires an organized, united 45% which Hillary by most estimates could easily muster... unfortunately.
     
  4. KenH

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    The caveat about a poll such as this is that it doesn't really mean anything without placing an opponent(s) in the poll as well.

    After all, there will almost certainly be Christian conservatives who would answer such a poll by stating that they would never vote for Giuliani but who will end up doing so in a Giuliani - Clinton race.
     
  5. saturneptune

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    The numbers are based on popular vote. All it would take to elect Hillary is a majority in the electoral college. One can win a state's electoral college with a plurality within the state, thus winning a majority of electoral college votes with a plurality of votes, sometimes not even the most votes. (ex. 1960, 1968, 1992, 2000)
     
  6. KenH

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    And in 1996, as well.
     
  7. saturneptune

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    Unlike the 2000 election, a strong 3rd party will favor the Democrat in 2008.

    Look at these election results from 1968 to see how low of a plurality it takes to win the entire state's electoral votes.


    Tennessee Richard Nixon 472,592 37.8 Hubert Humphrey 351,233 28.1 George Wallace 424,792 34.0


    South Carolina Richard Nixon 254,062 38.1 Hubert Humphrey 197,486 29.6 George Wallace 215,430


    Texas Richard Nixon 1,227,844 39.9 Hubert Humphrey 1,266,804 41.1 George Wallace 584,269 19.0


    Arkansas Richard Nixon 190,759 30.8 Hubert Humphrey 188,228 30.4 George Wallace 240,982 38.9


    It is possible to win an electoral college majority with a popular vote in the mid 30s.


    http://www.multied.com/elections/1968state.html
     
    #7 saturneptune, Oct 22, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 22, 2007
  8. KenH

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    You are correct, saturneptune.

    I don't see a candidate with the regional appeal that George Wallace had in 1968.

    The only minor party/independent candidate(unless Bloomberg jumps in) that could maybe get 2% would be Ron Paul and he has already said he isn't interested in a minor party/independent candidacy.

    1968 was really interesting in Arkansas. The voters went for a liberal Democrat U.S. senator(Fulbright), a moderate Democrat governor(Bumpers - who became more liberal when he became a U.S. senator), and a conservative Democrat for president(Wallace).
     

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