Final Prediction

I've got it:

Electoral College
Obama 271
Romney 267

Popular Vote
Obama 48.9%
Romney 49.6%

Here's how I allocated the swing states:
Obama: IA, NH, NV, OH
Romney: CO, FL, NC, VA, WI (surprise!)

I've got these split vote states like this:
Nebraska: Obama 1, Romney 4
Maine: Obama 3, Romney 1

Here's my map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgaP

There are simply too many paths to victory for Obama.

Why Romney might win:
Most of the polls are wrong because they are assuming the same percentage of Democrats and Republicans will turn out to vote in 2012 as did in 2008. If you drill down into the polling data you will find that the pollsters are counting more Democrats than Republicans. For example, if you look at just about any poll, in answer to the question about party affiliation, "Do you view yourself as a Democrat, Republican, or an Independent?" you see numbers like this:

Democrat....39%
Republican...32%
Independent 29%

So the polls are oversampling Democrats. So naturally Obama is leading in most swing states. The reason why it is probably wrong for the pollsters to oversample Democrats is because they are making an assumption that the same percentage of Dems/Reps will turnout to vote in 2012 as did in 2008. But Obama had record turnout of Dems in 2008 and he's not going to get that this time around. Democrats are not as enthusiastic about getting out and voting this time. In contrast, Republicans are dying to vote Obama out of office. Also, in close elections those voters that decide on a candidate on election day tend to go against the incumbent. Another factor is that Romney is leading among independents.

 

Electoral
295 Rominy
243 President Obama

51% rominy
49% President Obama

Swing states:
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, WI, Iowa, Colorado for Rominy,
He is leading in the polling of likely Voters in all but Wiscosin, but WI is Ryan's home state and current polling is 49 - 49.
President Obama takes PA, Michigan, Nevada and he may lose NV too.

If Rominy takes NV too it makes 301 Rominy 237 President Obama. Current polling is 3% ahead for the President in NV so it could swing Rominy's way.

 

Why the angst? LOL


Look, I gave a stone cold lead pipe lock prediction, and this is the thanks I get? Next time, just take that lead pipe and whack me in the knee, okay buddy? Sheeesh!!! LOL J/K.


You have to admit that my prediction is 100% correct 100% of the time....


NOW, put that in your smipe and poke it!!!

 

Ya reckon? In the counties of Logan and Mingo(in western WVa), the Dem. canidate that was in prison won them. His EPA is making it extremely hard for mines to function. Now, I am in favor of cleaner coal, and safer working conditions, but how far can the pendelum swing the other way? A few years ago, 20/20 ran a documentary when Massey prez Don Blankenship and WVa Supreme Court Judge, Elliott "Spike" Maynard went on vacation to the French Riviera. They showed them drinking $25.00 a glass champagne, smiling in those pictures as the sun was beaming down on them, while those miners, who could never afford a $25.00 a glass champagne, were being killed in two mines owned by Massey. Later on, Massey appealled a hefty fine all the way up to the WVA Supreme Court, and Maynard voted for Massey, and they ended up not having to pay the monies that they had been originally fined with.

Romney had WVa as soon as he was given the GOP nod.......anybody that would have been given the GOP nod would have had WVa in their back pocket w/o even campaigning there.....they are anti-Obama, more than pro-Romney, I think.

To be brutally honest, if he wasn't pro-gay marriage, and pro-choice, and pro-liberal in general, I'd vote for him. But his liberal views do not set well with me.

I don't know who leaked your source, but they're wrong. This is strictly a HBIS(HillBilliesInSpace) program, funded by "Duck Dynasty". Our agenda is to be the first to do a "duck call" on the moon. But, we only have about 8-9 hrs in the day to do this. The moon goes down around 6:30ish.

 

Good post, good info on the polling.

It's going to be very close. It's a toss-up with me.

....rhymes with domini and hominy...

 

I believe that Romney will win with 300+ electoral votes and 52-53% of the popular vote.

 

I have no idea. Really don't. My heart has me hoping Romney, but the pessimist side of me is thinking Obama. Here is my prediction:

50% - Romney or Obama
49% - Obama or Romney
1% - Others

And the winner of the EC will be somewhere between 270-299 electoral votes. And we probably won't know the result until Wednesday or even later (I predict at least one recount in one of the swing states). I also predict at least one lawsuit claiming voter fraud or the like.

And if Obama wins, the country will remain bitterly divided under his divisive, failed leadership.

 

Pretty much sums up my feelings as well. Although I would add that if Romney or Obama wins the country will more than likely remain bitterly divided under divisive failed leadership.

 

I am tweaking my prediction:

49.5% - Obama
49.0% - Romney
1.5% - Others

EC: 281 for Obama, 257 Romney. Romney only gets FL, NC, VA & CO of the swing states; all the others go to Obama. House will be safe GOP (maybe lose just a few seats overall); Senate will be 51-49 Democrat.

Obamacare will stay intact, but the House will try to de-fund it to a certain extent. Gridlock will be the norm and the MSM will wet themselves blaming the GOP. By the 2014 mid-term, unemployment will near 10%, we will have another recession (negative GDP for a year), the Dow will drop to about 10,000, and the GOP will take control of Senate. Obama will nominate a liberal S.C. Justice when Ginsburg retires before the mid-term, but (surprisingly) her replacement won't be as liberal as her (although she - yes it will be a woman - will still be staunchly pro-abortion). Scalia, thankfully hangs on; Breyer may retire too, but it won't be until after 2014.

In 2016, the GOP ticket is Ryan-Rubio and they win in a landslide with 55%+ of the vote, and Obama will leave office with about as much disdain as Bush did (although he'll still have 30% approval due to support from blacks and the white guilt elite). But will it be too late to undo the damage by 2016?

 

I could also see a Ryan-Christie ticket in 2016.

I have no idea how Benghazi will fall out - way too many variables at play - but it will definitely be a scandal, contributing to Obama's declining unpopularity throughout his second term.

 

What makes you think if President Obama gets a second term there will be a 2016 election?:tonofbricks:

 

I said it in another thread:

After 18 months, several billion dollars, countless hours, thousands of promises, empty rhetoric...we will be exactly where we are today: divided (do nothing) Congress, President Obama, and a deeply divided county.

 

I've had the same thought more than once. That goes along with the though "Never let a good crisis go to waste".

Those thoughts go along with another one.

How much longer will our Lord let this mess continue? Will we suffer the fate of the Hebrews, who wouldn't listen, over and over again? Or .....

 

That's probably the best one I've seen.

:thumbsup::applause::applause: