Let's Predict the GOP Super Tuesday Primary

Let's predict the outcomes of the Super Tuesday GOP primaries. I don't want to to the Democrats because I think Hillary will win most of them, Sanders should win Vermont (home state) and Oklahoma.

I'm not going to guess at the percentages in all cases, just those that I think might be close. This is important because all of these states have delegates awarded proportionately.

Rubio WIns

Minnesota
Rubio 31%
Cruz 29%
Trump 27%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%

Virginia (could go to Trump by a point or two)
Rubio 33%,
Trump 32%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 8%
Carson 7%


Cruz wins

Alaska
Texas
Arkansas
Tennessee (Trump could win by a point or two)


Trump wins

Alabama
Georgia
Massachusetts
Oklahoma (but Cruz is close)
Vermont

Even if Trump wins 8 or 9 states, the delegate count is what matters. I expect Trump will win about 200-210 delegates out of the 595 available on Super Tuesday.

 

How do you figure? That would mean he is polling at 69%.

What states do you see him winning?

Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo using Tapatalk.

 

Trump picked up 234 delegates.
Cruz picked up 206 delegates
Rubio picked up 90 delegates
Kasich 19
Carson 3

 

Actual results
Rubio 37%
Cruz 29%
Trump 21%
Carson 7%
Kasich 6%

Actual--it did go to Trump by a point or two.
Trump 34%,
Rubio 32%
Cruz 17%
Kasich 9%
Carson 6%

Actual, Cruz wins:
Alaska
Oklahoma
Texas

Actual, Trump wins:
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Massachusetts
Tennessee
Vermont
Virginia

Trump got 234.