Trump vs. Romney vs. McCain vs. Bush; Month of June

Here are some charts with data comparing Trump's position in June to previous Republican candidates in June. I think it ought to sober up some of the Trumpies that are predicting a Trump victory, at least it should shut up any talk about a landslide victory for Trump.

First chart is the percent of support for Trump compared to the three previous Republican candidates with 142 days to go before election day.






So, how do you close that gap? Campaigning, right? How about ads?

The next chart shows the amount of spending in the swing states in 2012 and 2016 by Romney vs. Obama and by Trump vs. Clinton.



I'm starting to get the very real feeling that Trump doesn't want to win.

 

The Dems are much better at mobilizing voters and appealing to their base than the Republicans. Trump has just wasted the better part of six weeks by not fundraising. He was given names of wealthy Republican donors to call and solicit donations and he quit after calling two people. Instead he makes an appeal for an "emergency $100,000" to put ads out in swing states. $100,000?! Really? If he's so rich and bent on self-funding, why doesn't he simply write a check?

No, I think Hillary wins this one, and by a large margin. There is talk of Missouri and Arizona going blue, and even Utah is no longer a sure thing for Reps.

Trump is talking about trying to put New York and California "in play" for the Republicans. Talk about a pipe dream. If he wastes time and resources on those two states, he is truly ignorant.

It's a sad realization that both candidates have such terrible character flaws and are so immoral. And yes, they are both equally scary, just on different issues.

 

I just don't see it happening. The press was giving Trump lots of free air time during the primaries. I suggest they will stop doing that and their bias will start showing. He can hold all the rallies he wants and say all sorts of controversial stuff, but if the press doesn't cover him, it won't matter. He has virtually zero ground game.

 

The crowds at his rallies are dwindling. He's no longer drawing 8,000 to 10,000 people. He's down to around 3,000 to 4,000. It's not newsworthy to show his rallies anymore.

The press might give him coverage but it will become increasingly more negative. For example, the kind of press he's getting now is his unprecedented unfavorable ratings.

 

The RNC fundraising numbers just came out from the Federal Election Commission. This May's fundraising is the lowest in a presidential election year since electronic filing began back in 2001. Here are the numbers:

Month/Year............Amount Raised.............Cash on Hand
May 2016..............$13.0 million.................$19.9 million
May 2012..............$34.2 million.................$60.8 million
May 2008..............$24.3 million.................$53.5 million
May 2004..............$19.9 million.................$72.0 million

https://projects.propublica.org/itemizer/committee/C00003418/reports/JUN MONTHLY

 

In May 2012 when Romney was running, the total take by the RNC, the Romney campaign, and a Romney super PAC was $76.8 million. The three combined to have $107 million cash on hand. Meanwhile Trump was on the phone this weekend begging for $100,000 emergency money to run some ads!

What an awesome campaign Trump is running, surrounding himself with the best people (and then firing them.)