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Race tightens in projected U.S. Electoral College vote: Reuters/Ipsos

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by Revmitchell, Sep 17, 2016.

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  1. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    NEW YORK (Reuters) - An election analysis conducted in the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project shows that the race has tightened considerably over the past few weeks, with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump projected to win Florida, an essential battleground state, if the election were held today.

    The project, which is based on a weekly tracking poll of more than 15,000 Americans, shows that the 2016 presidential race could end in a photo finish on Nov. 8, with the major-party candidates running nearly even in the Electoral College, the body that ultimately selects the president.

    The States of the Nation project, which delivers a weekly tally of support for the candidates in every state, shows that the race has tightened in several traditional battlegrounds. Pennsylvania has been moved from a likely win for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to a tossup; Ohio has been moved from a tossup to a likely win for Clinton.

    And Florida is now considered a likely win for the Republican nominee, with 50 percent support for Trump to 46 percent support for Clinton. If the election were held today, the project estimates that Clinton has a 60 percent chance of winning by 18 electoral votes. Last week, the project estimated that Clinton had a 83 percent chance of winning the election.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/race-tightens-projected-u-electoral-college-vote-reuters-114535676.html
     
    #1 Revmitchell, Sep 17, 2016
  2. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
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    I think the EC is looking better for Trump this month but I don't get the above analysis - why do they think PA is a toss up while they claim Ohio leans Hillary? That's not what the polls are saying:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html

    And you'd think winning PA would be much harder on Trump than Ohio. And for that matter, why does these polls show Trump with a bigger lead in Iowa than Texas?

    There's one pollster out there saying Vermont has is now a "high confidence" state for Trump to win:

    http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/17/reuters-poll-high-confidence-of-trump-win-in-vermont/

    Vermont??? That's a state where Obama won by over thirty percentage points, there's not that many angry Sanders supporters there?
     
    #2 777, Sep 17, 2016
  3. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    Crazy, isn't it?

    A new PA poll, taken after the Clinton pneumonia episode shows Clinton leading Trump by 9 points along likely voters.

    http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

    Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo
     
    #3 InTheLight, Sep 18, 2016
  4. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    #4 Revmitchell, Sep 18, 2016
  5. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    #5 Revmitchell, Sep 18, 2016
  6. Revmitchell

    Revmitchell Well-Known Member
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    #6 Revmitchell, Sep 18, 2016
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