Message from Kentucky: Strong candidates matter

Message from Kentucky: Strong candidates matter

"President Trump tried. And he warned Kentuckians at a huge rally a few days ago that the gubernatorial race was going to be viewed by all as a referendum on him.

So the apparent loss of Republican Gov. Matt Bevin to Democrat Andy Beshear last night is a stinger. A Trump endorsement is usually a surefire means of winning the election, and it has been up until now for nearly all candidates in special elections, which is why so many candidates want them. Once Trump endorses, Republicans almost always win.

But apparently, not even a Trump endorsement was enough for Bevin, who had some popularity problems. The punditocracy is calling curtains for Trump. The Washington Post is calling it "embarrassing." But there's plenty of reason to be dubious.

Bevin seems to have lost for three reasons:

One, as the Washington Post notes, he got into office only four years ago by a thin 85,000-vote margin. So he was on thin ice all through his term and didn't work to increase his support.

Two, he had a third-party challenge. Sen. Rand Paul is a popular senator in Kentucky, and on that ground alone, his libertarian allies managed to run a third-party candidate who won 2% of the vote. Had they not, Bevin might have pulled through.

Three, and this seems to have been the big one: Bevin wasn't popular. A poll that ran in April had him ranked as the least popular governor in all 50 states. According to the WaPo, he had a brash, abrasive personality that tended to annoy people. The Kentucky style is pretty gentlemanly and ladylike, so what's been branded as his imitation of Trump's New York brash abrasiveness probably didn't go over all that well with voters accustomed to other approaches. He may even have come off as inauthentic, a pale imitator of Trump, which isn't a sign of a good candidate.

Bottom line: He shouldn't have been the candidate. Like Roy Moore, who lost a Senate race in Alabama to a Democrat a few years ago, Bevin just wasn't a good candidate. Since he was the incumbent, though, the GOP had to run with him. Maybe it shouldn't have. Not even a roaring Trump endorsement seems good enough to win against a weak candidate, particularly one with personality issues, given that Democrats, with only socialism to sell, always run candidates on personality.

Now, for sure, the Democrats are going to be emboldened in their "impeach Trump and retake Congress and the White House" plan by this incident. That's going to give them energy, which isn't a good thing.

But it seems to be an isolated incident, given that most candidates endorsed by Trump have run away with victory. In Mississippi, Republicans won by a large margin. In Kentucky, Republicans made gains, too, and it was only the Republican governor who lost. According to the WaPo, the Republicans picked up the state attorney general's seat, finding a good candidate in a black conservative. The mistake was in running Bevin. A Trump endorsement is a mighty thing, but it can't do a thing for a weak candidate."

 

Trump's Campaign Manager Sets the Record Straight About What Really Happened in Kentucky Gov Race

"President Trump’s reelection campaign manager, Brad Parscale, corrected the false notion that Gov. Matt Bevin’s defeat to Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear on Tuesday was somehow a referendum on President Trump.

“President Trump’s rally helped five of six Kentucky Republicans win clear statewide victories, including Attorney General-elect Daniel Cameron, who will be the first black A.G. in Kentucky history and the first Republican to hold the office since 1948,” read a Trump campaign statement. “The President just about dragged Gov. Matt Bevin across the finish line, helping him run stronger than expected in what turned into a very close race at the end. A final outcome remains to be seen.”

Here's Trump Campaign statement via @parscale on #KentuckyElections.

"The President just about dragged Gov. Matt Bevin across the finish line, helping him run stronger than expected in what turned into a very close race at the end."

It's true he was down folks, significantly. pic.twitter.com/TDW971vrDF

— Richard Baris (@Peoples_Pundit) November 6, 2019
On Twitter, Parscale reiterated that Bevin's loss (though he has not conceded), has nothing to do with Trump.

"The networks are already full of crap with Kentucky, be honest!" he said. "The Democrats nominated a moderate, who’s dad was a moderate, who didn’t talk about impeachment or Trump, and who acts like a Republican. Talk about Kentucky when an actual Democrat runs. #FakeNews"

The networks are already full of crap with Kentucky, be honest!

The Democrats nominated a moderate, who’s dad was a moderate, who didn’t talk about impeachment or Trump, and who acts like a Republican.

Talk about Kentucky when an actual Democrat runs. #FakeNews

— Brad Parscale (@parscale) November 6, 2019
Others agreed, cautioning against drawing a connection between Bevin and Trump.

I'd caution against extrapolating too much from the statewide results. Bevin was uniquely unpopular, even within his own party.


Barely won majority in primary. Lowest approval of any governor in America.

Rest of the GOP ticket doing fine in Kentucky.

— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 6, 2019
If a Republican wins a state AG race for the first time in 70 years and a Republican also loses a Governors race in KY maybe it’s about the candidates and not a referendum on the President. It’s embarrassing I have to remind people of this.

— Chris Barron (@ChrisRBarron) November 6, 2019
No one energizes our base like @realDonaldTrump.

In Kentucky, the governor was down 17 points.

President Trump helped lift the entire ticket, winning 5 of 6 statewide races so far!

— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) November 6, 2019
Our big Kentucky Rally on Monday night had a massive impact on all of the races. The increase in Governors race was at least 15 points, and maybe 20! Will be in Louisiana for @EddieRispone on Wednesday night. Big Rally!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 6, 2019
Bevin was one of the least popular governors in America, according to a recent Morning Consult survey.

Morning Consult's Governor Approval Rankings now show the Kentucky governor is the second-most unpopular governor behind Rhode Island Democrat Gina Raimondo.

Bevin's unpopularity dropped from 56 percent to 53 percent in Morning Consult's 2019 Q3 survey. His approval increased from 32 percent to 34 percent, which still remains the lowest approval rating in the country. He remains the most unpopular Republican governor, and he is the only Republican governor who has at least a 50 percent unpopular rating. 13 percent of people surveyed said they don't know. (WKYT)"

 

BNL NEWS on Twitter

 

Yep, you did. I didn't realize what a jerk he is in real life.

Good chance the third party cost him the election also.

 

He's a speck of blue in a sea of red.