Predictions/Opinions - 2018 Midterm Elections

Yeah, the candidate lost [most likely] that one for himself, Trump couldn't pull it out for him, and, the Democrat Lamb literally ran like a Republican to win it.

RNC Spokeswoman: Conor Lamb Ran Like a Republican, Will Vote Like a Dem

 

It's news like this that cause me concern:

Liberal Dallet easily takes Wisconsin Supreme Court race

"MADISON, Wis. — Rebecca Dallet, a liberal Milwaukee judge, easily defeated conservative Michael Screnock Tuesday in the race for Wisconsin Supreme Court, fueling optimism among Democrats for more victories in the fall midterms.

The race for a 10-year seat was nonpartisan in name only, with millions in ad spending and public endorsements from the likes of Joe Biden, Eric Holder and the National Rifle Association....."

 

This one has surprised me. I thought Cruz was secure in TX::

Why the close Cruz-O'Rourke poll should make the GOP nervous

"Washington (CNN)The perennial speculation about whether Texas could turn blue flared up with fresh legitimacy on Wednesday after a new poll from Quinnipiac University indicated incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz could have a tight race on his hands.

The survey showed Cruz earning the support of 47% of registered voters vs. 44% supporting his opponent, Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke. That topline alone is bad news for the former 2016 presidential hopeful in Texas, where Democrats haven't won any statewide race in a quarter century.

But before Democrats start popping the champagne, the poll lays out some contours of the race that will shape the Lone Star State battle in the months to come. Here's the good news (and the bad) for Cruz and O'Rourke in the Quinnipiac survey.

Good news for Cruz: This poll result came among all registered voters, a traditionally more Democratic-leaning group than likely voters are. But it's possible Democratic enthusiasm could make up some or all of that difference.

Bad news for Cruz: Incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is ahead by 7 and 9 points in the same poll over his own Democratic opponents, dwarfing Cruz's lead with a margin similar to Donald Trump's in Texas in 2016. So -- this might just be Cruz's problem.

Good news for O'Rourke: Cruz is down 14 points among independents, a group Trump won by the same margin in 2016, according to exit polls. Plus, 59% of independents disapprove of Cruz's job performance and 57% say he doesn't share their values.

Bad news for O'Rourke: O'Rourke holds only a 4-point lead among women, similar to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's 2-point win among women on her way to a statewide loss. He'll likely need to grow that to double digits to win in November.

Good news for Cruz: O'Rourke has a lot of name-recognition work to do. A majority of Texas voters -- 53% -- hasn't heard enough about O'Rourke to share an opinion of him.

Bad news for Cruz: Texans like what they see of O'Rourke so far. His favorable numbers with Democrats are a staggering 54% favorable to 2% unfavorable. Independents like him as a person by 3-to-1. Even Republicans are evenly split on that question.

Good news for O'Rourke: Trump's approval rating is underwater: 43% approve and 52% disapprove. Plus, by 3-to-1, independents say their vote is more to oppose Trump than to support him.

Bad news for O'Rourke: People think Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on the economy, taxes, immigration and gun policy. They're even virtually tied on health care, a key issue where Democrats have a wide advantage nationally.

Good news for Cruz: Cruz still has his head above water on key personal qualities like honesty, leadership skills and caring about average Texans.

Bad news for Cruz: The groups with the highest share of undecided voters are Hispanics and people under 35 years old, key Democratic groups who will likely come home.

This Quinnipiac University poll was conducted April 12-17 among 1,029 registered voters in Texas. The margin of sampling error is ±3.6 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups...."

 

Poll: Majority Say Dem Candidates ‘Out of Step’ With Most Americans’ Thinking

"A majority of respondents in a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters said Democratic congressional candidates are out of step with most Americans.

Asked whether Democratic candidates’ approaches to the issues “are generally in the mainstream of most Americans’ thinking, or are generally out of step with most Americans’ thinking,” 56 percent said they are “out of step” and just one-third said they are “in the mainstream.” These figures are a marked swing from July 2016, when only 42 percent of respondents said Democratic congressional candidates were out of step and 48 percent said they were in the mainstream.

In the July 2016 poll, Republican candidates were seen as much less mainstream than Democrats, with 31 percent of respondents saying the Republicans were in the mainstream and 59 percent saying they were out of step. A slightly higher percentage of respondents in July 2018 see Republicans as mainstream (33 percent) and a slightly smaller percentage of them see Republicans as out of step (57 percent.)…"

 

War Chest: RNC Is About To Make A Huge Investment To Protect The GOP Majority In Congress

"The Republican National Committee is about to drop some serious cash to defend GOP majorities in the upcoming 2018 midterms, and it’s not like they’ll be sinking heavily in debt in the process either. They’re planning on dropping $250 million this cycle. They have a little over $50 million cash on hand, with an additional $213 million raised for the 2017-2018 cycle. The RNC raised $13.9 million in June alone, a record for an off-year election. The committee has no debt. This is the most money the RNC has raised for a midterm cycle ever, and 99 percent came from small dollar donors.

“What I see when I travel the country is that Americans continue to be enthusiastic about President Trump and the Republican agenda. That enthusiasm has allowed for me to grow our war chest and invest it into what has become the biggest ground game in our Party’s history,” said RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel in a statement. The chairwoman has done her work in the trenches as well, reportedly on the phone for several hours a day with donors. She’s also traveled over 150,000 miles, attending 88 fundraisers in 29 states to continue to fill the GOP coffers.

Since January, the RNC added 100,000 new online donors. The average donation was around $30. Besides the eventual ad buys, the money is also funding an administration that is working to ensure victory come November. You need state directors, regional field directors, communications directors, field organizers, and data crunchers. The RNC has deployed 500 staffers in 27 states this year.

We’re going to need every penny. While we’ve seen the GOP reclaim some ground, especially on the generic ballot, Democrats still lead, albeit by single digits now. Trump is driving voter enthusiasm on both sides. Democrats know they can kill the Trump agenda if the House is retaken. Republicans know that as well. We have 106 days until Election Day. That’s an eternity in politics.

As for the Democratic National Committee, well, they’re millions in debt, the Democratic small donor army has mostly evaporated, and vampire Hillary sucking more cash outof the committee for access to their campaign’s data and email lists doesn’t help. Then again, I’m not complaining about that. "

 

NBC Poll: Democratic Ballot Advantage Shrinks To Six Points, But GOP Far From Being Out Of The Woods

"...The NBC/WSJ poll shows 49 percent of voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress as the outcome for November’s midterm elections, versus 43 percent who want Republicans to stay in charge.

That 6-point lead in congressional preference for Democrats is down from last month’s 10-point margin, 50 percent to 40 percent, though the difference is well within the survey’s margin of error.

Independent voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by more than 20 points, 48 percent to 26 percent.

And Democrats continue to enjoy an enthusiasm advantage heading into the midterms: 65 percent of Democratic voters have a high level of interest in the upcoming elections — registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale — compared with 49 percent of GOP voters...."

"....a lot could happen, but there’s more than enough time on the clock for things to change—and more than enough for the GOP to work with to stave off electoral disaster. We're 106 days away from Election Day. Be on the lookout as Democrats will try to make this cycle about health care as well, some have already made that pitch. Still, it doesn't negate the fact that the Democratic advantage has started to atrophy. "