Economist proves Obama can't take credit for Trump economy

Obama's statement was about monthly job numbers.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

 

Yes. He is careful to make statements that can be defended by actual hard data.

 

Let's check the numbers in 6 months. It takes about 9 months to a year for the benefits of tax cuts to really start to show.

Assuming we have enough people that want to work I expect a minimum of 200,000 jobs per month created to be the new normal. In 2016 Obama created 200,000 jobs or more 5 times. In 2017 Trump did that 6 times. So far in 2018 Trump has done that 4 times already.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL

 

I agree that policy change often takes a long time to see real economic impact. And the president really has a small impact on overall numbers. I would say most of 2017 is probably more a reflection of Obama than Trump. I have no problem agreeing that the US economy has been doing well under Trump in 2018 and his influence on that is probably greater than Obama's by now.

While the immediate impact of Trump's economic policy has been economically good, I wonder about the longer term impact/costs of some of his choices economically, socially and environmentally. As you say, we'll see.

 

I would have to strongly disagree. At no point in Obama's tenure was there any period of growth that mirrored that of 2017. Besides: what achievement of the Obama Administration was the catalyst for this growth that didn't happen during his Presidency?

Regards,
BiR

 

Economists generally feel that presidents have very little impact on the economy and any impact they have from policy changes happens in a delayed way, usually years after the fact.

This study suggests that the peak effect of economic policy in the US occurs 5 years after the policy comes into effect.

http://home.uchicago.edu/~huhlig/papers/uhlig.mountford.joae.2009.pdf

This paper suggests that the US economy has done better under a democratic president but more because of luck and outside factors than any policies they made.

http://www.nber.org/papers/w20324.pdf

In terms of actual economic numbers during Obama's presidency:

Real Median Household Income
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=laOa

GDP per capita
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=laOb

Civilian unemployment rate
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=laOC

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=laOW

Industrial Production Index - this one has done particularly well since Trump
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=laQ3

 

LOL, even if the fabrications of Obama's successes were true, what counts is what the general public believes and the degree of credit they give to the sitting POTUS not his detractors (especially if its a former POTUS from across the aisle).

 

All of your little studies there do not consider some things.

1. Regulation - when you take the horse collar off the necks of industry they can immediately afford to hire and raise wages which has happened. Further, getting rid of overbearing regulations has also allowed for some manufacturing that had all but completely died to begin to come back creating jobs in really depressed areas.

2. Tax cuts - We had the highest corporate tax in the world and taking that horse collar off business allows them to invest in their companies, higher new employees, and raise wages.

These two events alone have a quick effect as it has shown in our country in the last two years. The above also raises consumer confidence which gets the average person out spending and moving the economy.

 

Just a reminder that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which is Trump's most economically impactful move was not signed until December 2017. Congress projected it would provide a 0.7% GDP increase starting in 2018.

JCX-69-17

I have agreed that in 2018, Trump's impact on the economy is probably larger than Obama's although I would say that both of them don't really have that much impact as financial policy can only do so much.

Lifting regulation has probably helped certain sectors to an extent and I think it is fair to give credit to Trump for improving the manufacturing sector which didn't really start the more dramatic increases we are seeing until the end of 2017 and has continued in 2018. The overall impact of changes in that one sector are modest on the overall macroeconomic picture.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

 

That is the thinking but it is not absolutely proven to be true every time. When you have a floundering economy due to overbearing regulation and excessive taxes then a fella like Trump comes in and speak positively instead of saying the less than 2% growth is the new norm and manufacturing jobs will never come back it has a large effect. Obama and the dems did not want the manufacturing jobs to come back, they were perfectly willing to allow nothing more than just under 2% growth. They were willing to entire towns to be decimated due to shutting how industry. Obama was working on destroying industry.

 

I found this useful site into the list of actual regulations being proposed or dismissed under Trump and when it happened.

Tracking deregulation in the Trump era

I'm not aware of any that would have a very significant impact economically but if you can point some out, that would be great.

 

This NPR article almost mirrors my posts.

FACT CHECK: Who Gets Credit For The Booming U.S. Economy?

 

Well, of course, NPR is liberal Democrat that sucks up taxpayer money to put out Democrat talking points.

 

So which one of those would you attribute to the Obama Administration?

Regards,
BiR

 

The Democrats wanted to raise taxes, not cut them as Trump did. The Democrats had imposed many restrictions on business, which Trump reversed. The Democrats marched to the globalist music, but Trump insisted on fair trade. The Democrats did not even bother to campaign in the rust belt, but Trump moved to stem the flood of cheap foreign labor and protect rust belt jobs.

Obama is a Clinton-style liar.