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1980 Again?

Discussion in 'Political Debate & Discussion' started by Arbo, Oct 9, 2012.

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  1. Arbo

    Arbo Active Member
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    In 1980, Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter in the polls before a last minute surge. We know how that turned out.

    Since the debate last week, Mitt Romney has taken a lead over Barak Obama in numerous polls. He had been trailing.

    Do you think we are seeing the beginnings of a replay of the 1980 election?

    I believe so. There are many similarities.
     
    #1 Arbo, Oct 9, 2012
  2. InTheLight

    InTheLight Well-Known Member
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    I'm starting to think Romney can win. I was listening to Sirius XM radio last night--I wish I could remember the station number--and they had a PolySci professor that has some sort of polling algorithm that has correctly predicted every election since 1980 (when he started tracking elections) even 1980 and 1992 when there were third party candidates. Also was correct in 2000 when he predicted Gore would win the popular vote but Bush would win the electoral college vote.

    Anyway, this professor predicts that Romney will win the election with 325 electoral votes, meaning Obama would only get 213. IIRC, the guy had Romney at 52% of the vote and Obama at 47%. Incredibly, he had Minnesota going to Romney (that got a ya sure from me...) and pretty much every swing state as well.

    Still, hard to argue with 100% success rate.
     
    #2 InTheLight, Oct 9, 2012
  3. Arbo

    Arbo Active Member
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    If Minn goes Republican I'll be convinced he has something there.

    For the last month or so, I just could not get past the similarity between this and the 1980 cycle: the economy, the low morale of the citizenry, the Middle East and Iran, gas prices, an economic conservative candidate vs. an economic liberal and their respective tax policies, to name a few things.

    I know the wonks will point to numbers of every kind (like what you mention), but my sense is more of a gut feeling based on what I see and how it seems to be playing out.

    Based on this, I believe Romney will take it, and by a respectable margin. It won't be a landslide, but it won't be as close as is conventionally thought.
     
    #3 Arbo, Oct 9, 2012
  4. preachinjesus

    preachinjesus Well-Known Member
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    I think a lot of people were waiting to see Romney define himself and show his strength as a leader rather than the mischaracterization given by the media.

    Secondly, the weakness of President Obama showed the shallowness of his Presidency.

    We'll see, but I'm still not convinced. Thursday should be interesting as well as the other two debates.
     
    #4 preachinjesus, Oct 9, 2012
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