2008 Presidential election polls

Are not the national polls a waste of effort. So McCain goes from 54% to 57% in NC (or whatever it was). The national polls indicate McCain has regained some of the base he had run off but it still comes down to those battleground states.

Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania; McCain has to win at least one of these three.

Now if a poll suddenly put California, New York, or Texas in question that would mean something.

 

NC, you are right. As I have said in other threads ... look at the polls and then throw them into the waste basket. It is far to early to get excited. Also, as I predicted during the Rep. conventiion, McCain will get a bump ... that will wear off and then we will see the horse race down the stretch. Nothing to get lathered up about yet.

 

Where's Ken now?

 

Here is the latest from Electoral-vote.com

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

They currently have Obama 281, McCain 230 with Florida as a dead tie.





Changes this week are Virginia going from tie to McCain, Florida went from McCain to a tie, Ohio went from Obama to McCain.

If Florida eventually goes McCain that puts them only 24 votes apart. To win McCain needs to hold what he has, take Florida, and then he still has to turn Pennsylvania, or a 12 vote mixture of Washington, Colorado, Nevada, or North Dakota. Wisconsin and Michigan are both pretty old polls so I am hoping for some traction there. Obama of course still holds the lead.

One state I don't get is Iowa. It looks strong democrat. Is anyone on the board from Iowa. I don't get how Obama has that much appeal in Iowa. Race should not be much of an issue there and on farming I would think the Republicans would have the edge.

Watch and wait.

 

Hillary is in Florida trying to get her voters to go with Obama. I don't know where Obama plans to send Bill but they are having lunch this Thursday. Obma really wants NC bad. He feels there is enough black/democratic support in NC that he can steal that state. I guess we'll see...

 

Sorry LeBuick, I don't think NC is going to go blue.

According to an ABC poll by SurveyUSA McCain is now up by 20 points in NC. Pre convention polls had him up by 4.

Here is a link to the ABC story:

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065

From the link:

 

Wow, there have been some electoral shifts. McCain has picked up some states. Here is the latest:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/



More changes since the Republican convention:

• New Mexico went from Weak Blue to Barely Red, McCain-Palin now lead in NM 49% to 47%
• Look at ND, they went from Barely Blue to Strong Red, McCain-Palin now lead in ND 55% to 41%, thats a huge shift.
• Michigan slipped from Weak Blue to Barely Blue. Obama's lead in MI is down to 49% to 45%.
• Obama gained ground in New Hampshire. He now leads there 51% to 45%.

Florida seems more important than ever. If it eventually falls to McCain then the two are only 8 electorial votes apart. (273 to 265)

Every state in play matters.

 

Yep, he can forget about NC. Palin stole his thunder...

 

McCain takes the lead!

Well it is official, this is going to go down to the wire. My favorite poll, electoral-vote.com now has McCain leading Obama in projected electoral votes 270 to 268.



The changes since yesterday are Florida and Nevada. Florida went from tie to a 5 point McCain lead and Nevada went from barely blue to barely red with a 1 point McCain lead.

McCain increased his lead in a lot of red states. It is amazing to me how big the lead is either way in some states.

States that currently have a 20 point or more lead: Alabama (20 pts), Alaska (31 pts, wonder why?), Idaho (39 pts), Kansas (23 pts), Oklahoma (33 pts), Tennessee (24 pts), and Utah (39 pts). Those 6 are all for McCain. Obama holds a 34 pt lead in Vermont and a 21 pt lead in Rhode Island, but Vermont is based on a February 28th poll and Rhode Island is from August 20th. Oh, and don't forget the District of Columbia, they get a vote now you know. Obama leads there by 81 pts, 90 to 9.

The map now is very close to the 2004 final. Only Colorado and Iowa have changed parties (both going from republican to democrat)

Can we stop now while my side is winning?:tonofbricks:

 

So today’s polls and electoral forecast are great, but it still comes down to a handful of swing states. On today’s map McCain has carried Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and so he wins, in theory, if the election were today. But is the convention boost maxed out and will Obama start to recover? Where else could McCain pick up more votes?

Michigan has been slipping since the conventions. A week ago Obama held a substantial lead there and he is down to 3%, 48% to 45%. Pennsylvania is also close with Obama holding on to the same lead there he holds in Michigan. Both of these states went for Kerry in 04 and it would be huge if McCain could take either. The other close states the Democrats hold the advantage in are Colorado (49 to 46) and Washington (49 to 45). These 4 states hold a total of 58 electoral votes and are McCain’s best chance at increasing his lead. I really don’t see Washington going red, they went Kerry in 04 and I think McCain has peaked there. Colorado went for Bush in 04 but putting the convention there may have pushed them over the edge. I think Michigan or Pennsylvania will turn before Colorado.

So where could Obama rebound? I know he wants Florida and that is a lot of votes but I just don’t think Obama can take it. It shows a 5 point McCain lead and McCain has a real advantage in the retired community. To them 72 is still young. New Mexico and Nevada have just recently turned red, but both of these states went for Bush in 04, they relate to McCain as a Westerner, and they have small minority populations. I really don’t see Obama taking them. Virginia has the minority population and a large liberal DC rollover. I would say Virginia and Ohio are Obama’s best shots at retaking the lead. Indiana and South Dakota both show weak red but those are pre-convention polls and I expect McCain to increase his lead substantially in both.

So for McCain – keep doing what your doing, try to turn one of the 3 turn-able democrat states: Colorado, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

For Obama – You have to get Virginia or Ohio in the blue. I think you have a better chance in either of those states than in Florida.

Bottom line – 4 battleground states, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

 

Hopefully it will not come down to Florida again. Let the Dems try to create votes in some other state.

 

Too much suspense....I'm really gonna miss Tim Russert and his white board on election night....

 

There's no way Ohio turns to Obama, because Southern Ohio is full of racists and would never vote for a black man. At least, that's what a recent CNN report told me. I'm glad that I have the most trustworthy news source in CNN to give me such balanced insight.

 

Moving this to the sticky for polls above this forum.

LE

 

Who would have thought we'd see the day this country voted for either a black man or a white woman to be leader of the free world?

 

I don't think the Dems can carry Florida. AARP is strong for the Dems just because they want socialized medicine and don't want to privatize social security. But despite this McCain is strong in the retired vote that thinks a 72 year old president is a great idea. I mean what can a kid in his 40s know?

Virginia, Ohio, Pennslyvania, Michigan, that is who will make or break this one.

Iowa still really puzzles me, how does a state that voted against Bill Clinton twice and for GW twice have Obama leading by 12? What happened in Iowa?

 

So you admit McCain is leading?